Ed Friedman wrote...snip...
> I'm a bit confused about your statistics. In the best scenario that you
> presented, there is a 5% chance of dying of prostate cancer within 10
> years. How is that better than the 0% chance that occurs when one goes
> to Dr. Leibowitz for treatment?
>
> Ed Friedman
Hi Ed...Is your "0% chance" statement based upon Dr. Leibowitz's paper
in The Oncologist, Vol. 6, No. 2, 177-182, April 2001? That's pretty
old and Dr. Leibowitz even states in the paper that the median
follow-up is only 36 months, and calls the results very preliminary.
No one with stats like the people in the group treated by Dr. Leibowitz
would die from PCa within 3 years even if they did nothing. I see from
his website that he has enrolled about 75 more patients into this study
over the last 5 years. Did you once mention that he has a newer paper
coming out?..Best wishes and good health, Ron
Ed Friedman - 19 Apr 2005 18:01 GMT
> Hi Ed...Is your "0% chance" statement based upon Dr. Leibowitz's paper
> in The Oncologist, Vol. 6, No. 2, 177-182, April 2001? That's pretty
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> over the last 5 years. Did you once mention that he has a newer paper
> coming out?..Best wishes and good health, Ron
Ron,
They have updated that paper and presented it to the February, 2005
First Annual Multidisciplinary Prostate Cancer Symposium in Orlando,
Florida. A copy of this presentation can be seen at:
http://www.prostateweb.com/pdfs/ASCO_PCF_02_2005.pdf
Basically, they are now reporting on 183 men, with a median of 75 months
and a range of 48-156 months (4-13 years). They still count the one
death in their statistics, although it turns out he had ductile
adenocarcinoma and not primary adenocarcinoma of the prostate. I
discount that death when I refer to 0% chance. I should also point out
that they have 0% distant metastases.
When you compare this to the Swedish study in the NEJM from 2002, where
the starting PSA was about the same, but the Swedish patients were only
stages T1 and T2, instead of the T1, T2, and T3 that Dr. Leibowitz and
Dr. Tucker accepted, then you can appreciate their results much more.
The Swedish study had 4.6% PCa deaths and 10.1% distant metastases after
74 months for patients undergoing RP. For watchful waiting the results
were even worse, with 8.9% PCa deaths and 15.5% distant metastases. I
am at a loss to explain why anyone would voluntarily choose to play
"Russian roulette" with RP or WW, when they have the option of 0% Pca
deaths and 0% chance of distant metastases (and keep an intact prostate
as well, with higher levels of T after treatment than before treatment
is started).
Ed Friedman