/
.
Considering that most people die within a few years of
retirement...what is all this white knuckle worry about
retirement?  So they can live the last few years in a larger
house?    Is *that it?

Bird flu is 72% fatal in humans, its already been transmitted
to humans and a wide range of animals in china.  Millions of
chickens have been destroyed already but the disease is found
in wild ducks and geese..those migrate world wide..
undetectably and unstoppable unless we wipe out entire
species.

The CDC is worried...its a real issue.

Last time with that sort of strain of flu, 1n 1918,  650,000
americans died... people died within hours of first symptoms..
to 4 days later.   with todays population the death toll would
be 2 million... not a large percent of the population on
average but a major disruption... the economic face of the
nation, real estate, stock prices all that would shift
dramatically as priorities changed long term.

Incubation time is always a day or two..or even weeks..so the
disease would spread terminally before it was detected...we
are in fact defenseless.

Preemptive measures will work best...flu vaccines will
probably not suffice in that regard.

http://www.ninthday.com/spanish_flu.htm

The spread in 1918 was limited because of much less dense
population, and no air travel.   This time the spread could be
10 times or 1000 times  as fast with death rates
conservatively in the 20 million plus range in the US because
of these factors.

one air liner could land in Chicago with half of the
passengers infected and headed out from  O'hare international
to 100 different locations in the US within an hour.....days
before a problem was even recognised.  at each hub a thousand
more people could be infected, and headed off to 1000
different locations, schools and office buildings
nationally...by the time the infection surfaced half the
population would have been exposed.  Way to late to vaccinate
or even take precautions for most people.

its a vastly different ball game now... the rates we saw in
the past that created total panic, a 1% death rate,  could
easily be 100 times worse today.

Prevention if a vaccine is not developed ahead of time would
require the immediate vaccination of 400 million americans the
same day...

...can we produce enough vaccine fast enough as this desease
mutates to get 400 million people vaccinated within a few
months?

No. That was the subject of a recent PBS special.. world wide
4 billion shots would be needed... that is simply not in the
cards when, not if, the next pandemic strikes.

Bird flue or some variant is very likely going to be a
problem.   the stock markets and business and the productivity
demographics of the US and other nations will be changed for
decades.  It will be a different world fast.

the mortality rate in infected populations will bear close
watching.. if it gets over even a tenth of 1% at the front
end, the mortality rate could easily go to 30% of the human
race.

Anything that drives your immunity down, such as the stress of
putting up with jerks, or being a jerk (which is also
destructive to the immune system) would increase ones
mortality...

Or living too clean a life style now..

.as has been discovered recently those living in dirtier
environments have better immunity to disease than those living
in immaculate surroundings.,, but even that is a variable. the
spanish flu left the weak and took the strong.

Go figure.

If you have kids that go to school, or work in an office
building or in the public areas... you will be exposed before
there is adequate warning to take precautions..

.if you go to a shopping mall and touch the door handles, or
breath the air... you will be at drastically increased risk...

if your neighbor does that and then you visit with them your
risk will go up or if you buy groceries touched by others or
pump gas and touch the pump handle...

Recluses, and people living on yachts at sea will do better
than the rest of the population...but that live style would
have to be established long before the infection first
surfaced in most cases.. most yacht owners will have been
sucking up suds at thier local bar, and being exposed as the
pandemic first strikes.

Where will the highest mortality rates be?:
Those in the large cities will have the highest mortality
usually.  The very young, the very old, fat people and junk
food junkies that are out of shape and with a mucous problem
(phlem in the lungs caused by dairy products and white flour
products).

But thats not always the case... mortality rates in
immunoisolated small villages in Alaska had death rates of 50%
or higher in 1918 spanish flu epidiemic...while those in the
dirtier cities had rates under 1%.

98% of the people will not have a choice in any of these
issues.

It will be the luck of the draw.

So what to do?   Well for most people the odds are still
probably under one in 10 of dying of such a disease...for the
older population the odds of dying shortly are 100% anyway due
to old age.

Accordingly the very best thing to do will be to drink beer,
eat sushi and procreate.., and tell the abusive people in your
life, including government that wants your last dime lest they
send thugs ...to   shove it...being very clear on the issue.

And not worring about repercussions at all.
Worrying  or kissing a.s in these times or the in the years
preceding them will be entirely fatal.

With the right insight and a little courage, ones blood
pressure goes down... and ones immune function will go up.

Interestingly, and I am not thumping anyones good book here,
those with blind faith in something, anything...will do better
than those with no faith in anything... and who worry...

No faith, pessimism and worry takes immune function down.  Not
facing facts is likewise fatal.  We have pandemics.  It will
pay to notice who survives them.

Relaxing in the face of disaster is what will work best, and
ultra clean habits, and limited contact with others at the
first sign of pandemic...and that has to be cultured to become
a habit long before such an evenuality...

those who cater to corrupt or abusive siutations, at work or
at home right to the end won't have the immune function to
survive when the next  pandemic arrives

When *is the time?
what drives these pandemics?

Distance from the last one, so the agregate human immune
function is lowwr (the last one was 85 years ago, we are due).

Denser populations.

Diverse and fast distribution in the food chain (its 100 times
faster now and more diverse than in the last pandemic).

And faster modes of travel... we are traveling at 650 mph now,
in 1918 it was 5 knots.

Phil Scott