(cnn)
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A mostly unprepared United States could do little
to slow pandemic flu if it hits anytime soon, according to a new
computer model.

And Britain is only a bit better off, the same study suggests.

If the U.S. government does nothing, a deadly global flu outbreak is
likely to strike a third of the population, according to the results
of a computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature.

If government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to
use as a preventive -- and the United States doesn't right now -- the
number could drop to about 28 percent of the population, the study
found.

"Both cases we came up with were very pessimistic," said lead author
Neil Ferguson of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at
Imperial College in London. "There is no single magic bullet for
stopping pandemic flu."

So far this year H5N1 bird flu -- which doesn't move easily from
person to person -- has infected 204 people and killed 113, according
to the World Health Organization. Most of the human cases and deaths
have been in Asia, but birds with the disease have hit Europe.

Combining use of the antiviral Tamiflu with school closings could
reduce the disease's toll a bit, Ferguson said. But efforts to stop
flu from entering U.S. borders -- usually on planes with sick
passengers -- won't work, he said. At most, such efforts can buy a
couple of weeks' delay before the disease sets in, he said.

Ferguson's computer simulation is the second released this month and
is more pessimistic than an earlier study led by Timothy Germann, a
Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist. He said the flu could be
less infectious and that efforts could slow it a bit.

. . . . .

  Yikes ! If it's not the bird flu this year it will be another
  kind next year or the next - SARS+ or something. A 33% hit at
  a demonstrated 50+% percent mortality ... nasty indeed.

  What's especially annoying is that we haven't siphoned-off
  half a billion from the interminable war effort to mass produce
  as many anti-virals and anti-symptomatics as possible. Just
  as FEMA is now stockpiling hurricane trailers in succeptable
  areas the CDC needs to have stockpiles of these drugs (and
  plans for overflow hospitals) IN PLACE around the country.
  Pretty much the entire population will need to go on anti-
  virals ... probably for a month to six weeks... to dampen
  the waves of infection. Not "stop" just 'dampen' - slow it
  down and lessen its intensity somewhat.

  The avian flu (or related bug) could almost shut-down the
  country for two months. The best advice is to NEVER leave
  your home. That means the military needs to be ready to
  deliver MREs, common meds (insulin and such) and clean
  water to pretty much EVERYONE for that period. Kinda like
  a post-hurricane situation, but twenty times larger. Most
  people stock SOME food, but it probably won't last more
  than a week or ten days.

  The military may also have to take over utilities ... electric,
  water, sewerage ... and even some law-enforcement duties as
  those workers should ALSO stay home or be put on even stronger
  anti-virals and/or better isolation than the general pop.

  Preparing to create overflow hospitals is important, the
  existing system cannot handle that many individuals coming
  at them in a short period. Proper support is critical to
  increasing survival rates. In 2nd/3rd-world countries the
  survival rates from SARS and avian flu have been DISMAL,
  but then they have minimal support facilities. SOME info
  has been gained however, novel ways to reduce the impact
  of symptoms. Overflow hospitals need to have the right
  meds and equipment and be staffed with people who know
  how to use them. Cut the mortality to even 33% and you've
  saved MILLIONS of registered voters. (hint, hint)

  So why are we spending gigabucks pretending we're securing
  ports and such from bin-Ladens butt-boys while ignoring a
  far more plausable "bio warfare" scenerio that could do ten
  times more damage than even a terrorist nuke ? NO EXCUSE !!!

  Get with your reps - send 'em snail mail (not easily-ignored
  e-mail), call 'em, contact "W", pester your state-level reps.
  In short - let 'em know they need to respond to the threat of
  the moment or they'll find themselves disemployed and at the
  bottom of the list for the anti-virals. Bin-Laden is just a
  mosquito - these ugly new flu bugs are tyranosaurus rex. The
  super-flu stands to be as devastating and much more likely
  than any N.Korean nuke attack.