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Medical Forum / General / General / November 2005

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Outbreaks

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Chi - 13 Nov 2005 02:18 GMT
BEIJING, China (AP) -- China has reported the fourth bird flu outbreak
in a northeastern province in the past two weeks amid fears that
counterfeit flu vaccines being sold there might be worsening the public
health threat.

The report on Friday brought the total number of outbreaks reported by
China in the latest round of cases to seven.

Ok so the question is...if there were 2 cases would that constitute an
"outbreak" what exactly (in numbers) constitutes an outbreak?
(PeteCresswell) - 13 Nov 2005 02:29 GMT
Per Chi:
>amid fears that
>counterfeit flu vaccines being sold there might be worsening the public
>health threat.

Just hope they don't get access to TamiFlu and ruin it like the did with the M2
inhibitors.
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PeteCresswell

Carey Gregory - 13 Nov 2005 06:26 GMT
>Per Chi:
>>amid fears that
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>Just hope they don't get access to TamiFlu and ruin it like the did with the M2
>inhibitors.

Consider it done.
bae@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu - 13 Nov 2005 15:54 GMT
>BEIJING, China (AP) -- China has reported the fourth bird flu outbreak
>in a northeastern province in the past two weeks amid fears that
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>Ok so the question is...if there were 2 cases would that constitute an
>"outbreak" what exactly (in numbers) constitutes an outbreak?

It almost certainly refers to an outbreak in birds, probably domestic
poultry.  This strain is extremely lethal in chickens - 100% mortality
within 48 hours is not uncommon.  Aside from the potential of a human
transmissible strain developing, this disease is a disaster for
commercial poultry and egg producers, as well as for hundreds of
millions of people for whom a small backyard flock is the main source
of animal protein and income beyond a subsistence level.

So far, cases in humans have only been confirmed in Vietnam, Indonesia,
Thailand and Cambodia.  This epizootic has been worsening since 2003,
and unlike previous outbreaks, hasn't been controllable by the usual
methods that have been successful in eradicating similar epizootics in
the past, usually within weeks.  Previous epizootics have generally
been confined to a single country or part of a country, but this one
has spread over much of Asia and is now in Europe as well.

The best source of information about the epizootic and efforts to avert
or mitigate a pandemic is the WHO web site: www.who.int.  There's an FAQ
in the Avian Influenza area which is particularly helpful.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html
Carey Gregory - 14 Nov 2005 06:57 GMT
>It almost certainly refers to an outbreak in birds, probably domestic
>poultry.  This strain is extremely lethal in chickens - 100% mortality
[quoted text clipped - 16 lines]
>in the Avian Influenza area which is particularly helpful.
>http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html

And just to add to the "good news" there's this
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-11-11/34470.html
bae@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu - 14 Nov 2005 15:46 GMT
>>The best source of information about the epizootic and efforts to avert
>>or mitigate a pandemic is the WHO web site: www.who.int.  There's an FAQ
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>And just to add to the "good news" there's this
>http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-11-11/34470.html

Thanks for the link.  I read some of the related articles there too,
and while epochtimes has an axe to grind, it's certainly disturbing
that China appears not to be actively cooperating with the WHO in
providing access to areas with possible outbreaks, and samples from
possible animal and human victims.

The link to recombinomics.com is interesting, too. Henry Niman is a way
cool scientist.  His idea that viral genetic changes can be predicted
could be very valuable.  This site has a huge number of articles and
links on the progress of the avian influenza epizootic, mainly focusing
on the changes in the viral genome.  His view of the progression the
epizootic to a potentially pandemic form is less conservative than that
of the WHO web site.  Of course, he has something of an axe to grind,
too.
 
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