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Medical Forum / General / General / October 2005

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BIRD FLU TERRORISM?

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tamiflu_bird_flu@modoracle.com - 26 Oct 2005 15:06 GMT
BIRD FLU TERRORISM?

Once upon a time there was a terrorist. He heard that there had been an
outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza at a poultry farm.

Protecting himself by taking Tamiflu that he'd probably ordered from
the internet or using a prescription from an unscrupulous private
physician, the terrorist identified the area where birds had died of
H5N1 and scraped up as much of their droppings as he could fit into a
container, mixing it well later on. He may have visited several
infected locations.

Bird flu is most commonly spread from birds to birds and from birds to
humans when dried droppings are disintegrate or are crushed naturally
into a fine powder and inhaled. It was a simple matter for the
terrorist to dry out the droppings at a low temperature, keeping the
virus alive.

With several litres of the powdered infected bird flu droppings the
terrorist went everywhere from underground subway trains to office
ventilation systems to just throwing handfulls of it into the air. The
stuff was everywhere, especially in crowded places. He also put it in
food by making up a solution and injecting tiny amounts into food in
several shops.

He had succeeded in manufacturing a weapon of mass destruction for just
a few hundred dollars. Thousands of people died.

Fortunately this has not happened yet. But it is a scenario that should
be taken seriously.

If you are worried about bird flu or have any questions please email
me, I have lots of information and advice:

tamiflu_bird_flu@modoracle.com
johngohde@naturalhealthperspective.com - 27 Oct 2005 11:05 GMT
> BIRD FLU TERRORISM?
>
> Once upon a time there was a terrorist. He heard that there had been an
> outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza at a poultry farm.

I am still waiting for a date, Dear Science Geeks.

Also, name the strains of Flu that will strike America this winter.
Put your name on the line, and I will get back with you next spring
when I will prove just how wrong as always you science Geeks in the Flu
vaccination business are.  We Quacks need a good laugh, every now and
then.

Just thought that you might want to know, Cowards.
ziggittes@yahoo.com - 27 Oct 2005 15:37 GMT
> I am still waiting for a date, Dear Science Geeks.

Baiting? Of course, no one can put a date on it. But it's not without
precedent for avian influenza viruses to cause pandemics. After all, it
happend in 1918-1919 and killed 20-50 million people. If the current
one that's been circulating in SE Asia since 1997 and has now made it
to Europe accumulates the necessary mutations for efficient
person-to-person transmission while retaining its pathogenicity, then
we could be in for some dire times.

> Also, name the strains of Flu that will strike America this winter.

It's all about probablilities. Surely you know this? Perhaps not.
There's a good probability that at least one of these, or
antigenically-similar ones, will emerge: A/New
Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus; A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-like virus;
B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus.

> Put your name on the line, and I will get back with you next spring
> when I will prove just how wrong as always you science Geeks in the Flu
> vaccination business are.  We Quacks need a good laugh, every now and
> then.

I'd rather be laughed at then dead. How about you?

> Just thought that you might want to know, Cowards.

You should really remove that chip from your shoulder.
(PeteCresswell) - 27 Oct 2005 17:46 GMT
Per ziggittes@yahoo.com:
>It's all about probablilities. Surely you know this? Perhaps not.
>There's a good probability that at least one of these, or
>antigenically-similar ones, will emerge: A/New
>Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus; A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-like virus;
>B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus.

Somewhere I heard someone recommend immunizing some subset of the population for
"Generic H5 Immunity".  

I think I understand about the neuraminidase part of the shell being the basis
for the "N" part of the naming convention, and I'm guessing that the "H" part
refers to another protein on the shell.

But I'm lost on the concept of "Generic H5 Immunity".      Can anybody elaborate
- in words of three syllables or less?
Signature

PeteCresswell

ziggittes@yahoo.com - 27 Oct 2005 19:12 GMT
Not familar with this term, but I suspect it would involve formulating
a vaccine with all the known viral H (hemaglutanin) proteins in it,
such that those immunize would have antibodies that would be (cross)
reactive with any arising strain of influenza. The idea is that it
wouldn't necessarily keep you from getting influenza (should one arise
with mutations in it), but it would probably lessen the severity of the
disease. The viral H protein is the principal target of vaccination
because it is what the virus uses to bind to cells that are to be
infected. A "neutralizing" antibody binds to the H protein, thus
blocking the virus' ability to bind to the cell, thus protecting the
cell (and the person) from infection.
johngohde@naturalhealthperspective.com - 28 Oct 2005 10:52 GMT
> > I am still waiting for a date, Dear Science Geeks.
>
> Baiting? Of course, no one can put a date on it.

No Date = Liars

Sounds simple enough to me.  What is your problem?  Or, I know.  Just
another hot-air balloon.

You have my condolences.
ziggittes@yahoo.com - 28 Oct 2005 14:53 GMT
johngohde@naturalhealthpe rspective.com wrote:
> No Date = Liars

A lie is an untruth with the intent to deceive. Can you provide the
evidence that I'm trying to deceive you? You asked for a date and I
stated that no one has the answer. How is this a lie?

> Sounds simple enough to me.  What is your problem?  Or, I know.  Just
> another hot-air balloon.

My problem is that I have a hard time understanding how people can deny
evidence that is right before their eyes. Is there anything in my post
that is factually untrue? If so, I'll gladly issue a correction or
clarification. And what's with the name-calling?
(PeteCresswell) - 29 Oct 2005 00:28 GMT
Per ziggittes@yahoo.com:
>My problem is that I have a hard time understanding how people can deny
>evidence that is right before their eyes.

I think it's a unconscious coping strategy for some people - in my experience
especially for some with very positive attitudes in general.

Every so often I can't resist reminding my Better Half that "Cleopatra wasn't
the only Queen of De Nile...".
Signature

PeteCresswell

bae@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu - 28 Oct 2005 15:05 GMT
>> > I am still waiting for a date, Dear Science Geeks.
>>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>Sounds simple enough to me.  What is your problem?  Or, I know.  Just
>another hot-air balloon.

"Science Geeks" at LSU quite accurately predicted the consequences of a
severe hurricane striking the coast near New Orleans.  Some of this
modelling and prediction was described in Scientific American in 2001,
as well as in a number of journals.

However, they didn't give a date for the event.  According to you, that
makes them liars and their predictions a hot air balloon.  Clearly
there are many other people like you, some of them in power, who would
rather pretend nothing bad can happen if they refuse to believe it can,
or if it does, it's okay because it will happen to other people.

The real world isn't affected by what you believe or want or assert.
It just is.  That's the advantage of scientific thinking, for all its
flaws, over the magical thinking you espouse.

I can confidently predict that you are going to die.  Just because I
can't put a date on it doesn't make it a lie or a hot air balloon.  If
you can only deal with the uncertainties in life by a policy of
irrational denial,

>You have my condolences.

(Note -- I'm not saying that a severe influenza pandemic is imminent.
It's extremely likely that there will be one at some time, if not from
a mutated form of the current panzootic avian flu, then from another
one.  Nobody can predict when.  If such a pandemic is averted or mitigated,
it will be by people who take the possibility seriously, not by jackasses
like gohde, who believe that wishing will make it so.

One can also point out that when strenuous efforts avert or mitigate a
potential disaster, as with the Y2K problem or SARS, and as could have
happened, but didn't, with Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans, jackasses
like gohde will use it as proof that it was all a bunch of lies and a big
scam, and all those efforts were unnecessary, because the Bad Thing didn't
happen after all.  It's this defective understanding of cause and effect
that's such a serious problem, and there's a lot of it going around.)
David Wright - 28 Oct 2005 03:19 GMT
>> BIRD FLU TERRORISM?
>>
>> Once upon a time there was a terrorist. He heard that there had been an
>> outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza at a poultry farm.
>
>I am still waiting for a date, Dear Science Geeks.

Well, don't look at us, Toothless John.  Nobody here wants to date
you.  I can't imagine who would, come to think of it.

 -- David Wright :: alphabeta at prodigy.net
    These are my opinions only, but they're almost always correct.
    "If you can't say something nice, then sit next to me."
                                -- Alice Roosevelt Longworth
Sbharris[atsign]ix.netcom.com - 28 Oct 2005 04:26 GMT
> >> BIRD FLU TERRORISM?
> >>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> Well, don't look at us, Toothless John.  Nobody here wants to date
> you.  I can't imagine who would, come to think of it.

COMMENT:
Is he still nattering? Since he is toothless, the answer might be gay
sightless men with anosmia. They probably exist. There's someone for
everyone.

SBH
ziggittes@yahoo.com - 27 Oct 2005 15:25 GMT
> Bird flu is most commonly spread from birds to birds and from birds to
> humans when dried droppings are disintegrate or are crushed naturally
> into a fine powder and inhaled. It was a simple matter for the
> terrorist to dry out the droppings at a low temperature, keeping the
> virus alive.

Hmm. Not so sure about this. Do you have a reference to the
peer-reviewed literature suggesting that influenza virus will survive
"drying" - or are you referring to lyophilization?

> With several litres of the powdered infected bird flu droppings the
> terrorist went everywhere from underground subway trains to office
> ventilation systems to just throwing handfulls of it into the air. The
> stuff was everywhere, especially in crowded places. He also put it in
> food by making up a solution and injecting tiny amounts into food in
> several shops.

I doubt lacing food would be an efficient transmission method. You
really want aerosols.

> He had succeeded in manufacturing a weapon of mass destruction for just
> a few hundred dollars. Thousands of people died.

This is highly unlikely. You'd have to spend a lot more than a few
hundred dollars to produce large amounts of AI. You'd need incubators,
SPF eggs, rockers, containment facilities, sterile techniques,
processing equipment, and especially training in virus propagation and
preparation.

> Fortunately this has not happened yet. But it is a scenario that should
> be taken seriously.

I don't think so. Avian influenza is not an agent of choice for
terrorism, unless you can engineer the right mutations to make it an
efficient person-to-person transmission cycle. No one knows what these
mutations are and it would take a substantial amount of time and money
to figure them out. In addition, it's treatable by tamiflu and it would
probably be pretty easy to make a vaccine. Might as well use anthrax or
plague; they're much easier to find and cheaper to produce.

> If you are worried about bird flu or have any questions please email
> me, I have lots of information and advice:

I can't wait to hear what you have to say. Will you post it here,
please?
bae@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu - 27 Oct 2005 16:53 GMT
>tamiflu_{scam}.com wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
>probably be pretty easy to make a vaccine. Might as well use anthrax or
>plague; they're much easier to find and cheaper to produce.

Avian flu does spread by fecal-oral route in birds.  It's mostly a
gastrointestinal disease for them.

However, note that probably tens or hundreds of millions of poultry
keepers in Asia have had similar or greater exposure to infected bird
droppings than the people in this scaremongering scenario, but fewer
than 200 have become seriously ill.  While this particular strain
spreads like wildfire in poultry, it's not very communicable to people,
nor is it communicable from person to person.

The risk of course is that it will adapt to become a human disease,
either by mutation, or by exchange of genetic material with a human
strain in a person or pig infected by both concurrently.  Nobody knows
when or if this will happen, and the WHO is making strenuous efforts to
prevent it and to monitor for the event in hopes of containing it as
much as possible.  This has been successful for almost three years so far.

Once it happens, vaccination will be not only the best protection for
individuals, but the best method of slowing the spread of the new virus
to new areas.

Note that vaccinating people exposed to avian flu with vaccines against
the currently active human strains is one tactic the WHO is using to
prevent the conversion of this bird disease to a human one.

>> If you are worried about bird flu or have any questions please email
>> me, I have lots of information and advice:
>
>I can't wait to hear what you have to say. Will you post it here,
>please?

I doubt he will, but I can summarize it: "You're in deadly danger so be
smart and send me lots of money for the magical potion tamiflu.  Then
you will be safe and smug even if everyone else is dropping like
flies."  This kind of scam may cause a shortage of tamiflu this flu
season, which could result in more deaths of vulnerable people from
common forms of flu, especially the elderly who often don't develop
strong immunity from vaccination.

Ziggittes, I know you know far more about vaccines and infectious
diseases than I ever will, but I thought other readers might be
interested in my take on it.  Anyone who wants reliable information
about the avian flu problem can find out a great deal at www.who.int,
in the areas covering avian flu and pandemic preparedness.
ziggittes@yahoo.com - 27 Oct 2005 19:19 GMT
b...@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu wrote:

> Once it happens, vaccination will be not only the best protection for
> individuals, but the best method of slowing the spread of the new virus
> to new areas.

There's a serious limitation with the avian influenza virus that's
circulating, namely that it kills the egg embryos before adequate
quantities of virus can be harvested for vaccine production. On top of
this is the fact that, at best, the world's capacity for making
influenza vaccine is about 300 million doses per year. That's
completely inadequate to protect the world's population. What needs to
be done is to have a cell culture-based vaccine, such as what was done
for FluMist, but I don't know of anyone who has such a system for this
particular avian influenza virus.
bae@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu - 28 Oct 2005 16:00 GMT
>b...@cs.toronto.no-uce.edu wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
>for FluMist, but I don't know of anyone who has such a system for this
>particular avian influenza virus.

That is a big problem, but perhaps (crossing one's fingers) if a human
form does arise it will be more amenable to the avian embryo
technique.  If not, rational deployment of what vaccine can be produced
could slow the spread of a pandemic, giving time to produce more
vaccine.

I'm pretty pessimistic, though, that if a human form develops and a
vaccine is produced, it will be used on people in affected areas to
slow or stop a pandemic, rather than stockpiled for sale to people
elsewhere who can afford to pay for it.

As for cost and capacity, the US is making itself into a third world
country by third world activities like spending itself into extreme
debt on military adventurism, to the point where, like a third world
country, it can't provide disaster relief to its own citizens.  Look at
New Orleans -- the helicopters that should have been there to rescue
people stranded by flooding, and the national guard that should have
been providing order and organization had been taken out of the
domestic emergency system and used to support aggression in Iraq.
People paid for those emergency systems with their taxes, and as in any
corrupt third world country, the money was grafted into the military
and the pockets of the wealthy.

It would be really nice if a fraction of the billions being used to
kill people in Iraq and Afghanistan could be diverted to international
efforts of pandemic preparedness.  It's too much to expect that they
be used to avert tens of millions of preventable deaths from other
causes in poor countries, but it would be in the self-interest of the
US to avert or mitigate the effects of a pandemic among its own
citizens.  This assumes, of course, that there's still some belief that
tax money should be used for the benefit of the general population, an
increasingly dubious assumption.

How much capacity to produce cell-culture vaccine could you build with
startup capital of a billion dollars a year?  Even if you never use
it, it would be no more, and in most respects less of a waste than the
same funds now spent by the military to give more and more Iraqis and
Afghanis good reason to engage in terrorism.
(PeteCresswell) - 30 Oct 2005 01:16 GMT
Per ziggittes@yahoo.com:
> a cell culture-based vaccine

?
Signature

PeteCresswell


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