<snip>

 <snip>

  And this:

   http://tinyurl.com/9om28

Howdy!  ^__^

Debate on the misc.survivalism board is currently raging on
just that topic.  Some feel the whole problem is overblown,
the result of hysterical pronouncements from health officals
and gloom-and-doomers.  And in fact point precisely to SARS
and earlier warnings of rampant diseases that never panned
out to justify their position.  Others are worried this may
be it, the one that brings the house down, and are fretting
accordingly.   Most seem to be somewhere between the two
extremes.  As for me...

I have no doubt H5N1 and the other strains of bird flu wiping
out Asia's and now Europe's bird populations ARE a threat to
humanity.  It's just impossible to tell how big a threat.
In those few cases (112 known, I believe is the current
figure) where humans have come down with H5N1, over 50% have
died.  That's a VERY deadly disease.  But for it to become
the pandemic people fear, first it has to mutate or change to
be easily transmissable, human to human.  That could happen
any time, or NO time, there's no way to tell.  IF it mutates,
it's possible it will be into a less deadly form, or to one
that isn't very contangious.  Either would reduce the danger
to humans considerably.  But the problem is, you see, the
odds of these sorts of mutations/changes cannot be figured.
It's a completely random event which might never take place.
So from that prespective, you can't tell how dangerous this
is.

However.

Let's assume H5N1 *does* make the jump, and becomes a very
virulent pandemic which containment measures can't stop (and
most people agree that, which the prevalence and speed of
travel these days, no quarentine or blockade will have much
chance of preventing the disease from getting into the
general population, barring amazing luck).  The question
becomes, what measures might improve your chances of not
contracting it?

Influenza's main route of infection is hand/mouth-eye-nose.
Someone coughs into their hand, then touches something;
you come along, touch that same something, then probably
without conscious thought rub an eye, scratch your nose, or
lick a finger and BANG, you've got it.  Interrupt that
hand/face action, and you've cut your chance of infection
dramatically.  That's why health officials tell you to wash
your hands frequently; a good scrubbing will wipe out or
rinse away any germs on your hands before they can do you
the dirty.  A face mask will also help, not so much by
filtering airborne germs out (for that you'd need a nano-
mask), but because you can't touch your mouth/nose while
it's on.  Those two tactics would be a cheap but probably
effective defense.

Then, of course, we get into the more interesting stuff.
Like just not going outside if there's a pandemic raging.
How practical that is depends on your circumstances;
obviously you'd need to have enough food so you wouldn't
need to go shopping.  And to be able to take time off
from any work.  And there's always the risk that, if
enough of the people who run utilities get sick, then
power and water might be interrupted.  Which wouldn't be
good and might, unless you've prepared for such problems,
force you outside after all...

On the drug front, Tamiflu seems to help your body fight
off flu.  How effective it would be against Bird Flu is
unknown, though.  Various people have suggested various
drugs, herbs, substances or combinations thereof that
might also help; but again, at this point, it's
speculation.  Vaccines are the surest bet but,
unfortunately, until and unless H5N1 evolves into a
human disease, we won't be able to make one to fight it.

The best advice I can give is, make preparations by
storing enough food, water, and necessary supplies to
get you through hard times; keep an eye on the news for
the first warnings that Bird Flu is now a human flu and
something to fear; and if things go bad, to make plans
accordingly and do whatever you can.

Good Luck

FW

The 'Flu Clinic' forum at CurEvents.com has some good articles...
http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=2fcf8a66c47c5cbdf282ca0
c25077575&f=40

This is their 'Master Flu Preps' thread...
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?s=2fcf8a66c47c5cbdf282ca0c2
5077575&t=17139

Hope this helps...

--
Yours, DBM - dbmacpherson@uq.net.au
From Somewhere in Australia, the Land of Tree-hugging Funnelwebs...