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Medical Forum / General / General / May 2005

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exercise heart rate predictor of sudden death

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outrider - 12 May 2005 23:35 GMT
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/19/1951

See also citation at bottom of abstract.

Zee
Don Kirkman - 13 May 2005 01:17 GMT
It seems to me I heard somewhere that outrider wrote in article
<1115937300.484921.305840@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>:

>http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/19/1951

>See also citation at bottom of abstract.

I'm wondering how Jeff, Jim Chinnis, and others respond to this study.
Relying on the Scott Gottlieb report (since I'm not registered for the
NEJM), I'm curious how the risk levels coordinate with widely-used
measures of physical fitness, as well as about the significance of the
specific measures they've chosen..

Quotes are from the Gottlieb news report on the same page Zee cited.

"The risk of sudden death from myocardial infarction was higher in men
with a resting heart rate >75 beats per minute than in men with a
resting heart rate <60 beats per minute (relative risk 3.92 (95%
confidence interval 1.91 to 8.00);"

This may not correlate closely with fitness, but in general one would
expect lower resting heart beats with a higher level of fitness.  Highly
trained athletes may have resting heart rates down into the 40 bpm
range.

"higher in men with an increase in heart rate during exercise of <89
beats per minute than in men with an increase of >113 beats per minute
(relative risk 6.18 (2.37 to 16.11);"

Assuming for illustration a heart rate of 68 bpm, an increase of 89 bpm
equates to 157 bpm and an increase of 113 bpm to 181 bpm.  ISTM those
are high rates for a mixed population included members with lower
fitness levels.  (My own maximum heart rate, measured on treadmills and
bicycles, never exceeded 165 bpm over about a fifteen year period during
which I was running twenty to thirty miles a week.  For the first time
in months I reached 158 bpm during my morning run today.)

"and higher in men with a decrease in heart rate of <25 beats per minute
at one minute after the end of exercise than in men with a decrease of
>40 beats per minute (relative risk 2.20 (1.02 to 4.74))."

Among runners and others the quickness and depth of recovery from hard
exercise is taken to be directly related to fitness level.

Gottlieb says the "5713 asymptomatic men employed by the Paris civil
service [. . .] had undergone standardised graded exercise testing
between 1967 and 1972. The men were between the ages of 42 and 53 years
at the time of testing, and none had clinically detectable
cardiovascular disease." but has no indication of exercise regimes or
fitness levels.

By the follow up in 1994 the cohort would have been between 64 and 80
years old*, an age range obviously more at risk than the original 42 to
53 years, and the range of physical ability is much wider because of the
advanced age.  

*  This assumes the "standardised graded exercise testing" was at a
point in time for each subject; if all were tested throughout the period
between 1967 and 1972 the range would be the same twelve years, and the
range could fall between 64 - 75 and 69 - 80.

The NJME obviously considered these findings significant, but is it
perhaps a case of the beneficial effects of exercise being overlooked or
underappreciated in studying cardiac risk?
Signature

Don Kirkman

Jim Chinnis - 13 May 2005 04:50 GMT
Don Kirkman <donkirk@covad.net> wrote in part:

>It seems to me I heard somewhere that outrider wrote in article
><1115937300.484921.305840@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>:
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>measures of physical fitness, as well as about the significance of the
>specific measures they've chosen..

Don, I haven't seen the full-text report yet and just read the
abstract. Your comments here look on-target.

>Quotes are from the Gottlieb news report on the same page Zee cited.
>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>trained athletes may have resting heart rates down into the 40 bpm
>range.

I think it correlates fairly highly with "fitness" and
cardiovascular training.

>"higher in men with an increase in heart rate during exercise of <89
>beats per minute than in men with an increase of >113 beats per minute
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>which I was running twenty to thirty miles a week.  For the first time
>in months I reached 158 bpm during my morning run today.)

It looks like the big increase in relative risk is between the two
extremes of <89 and >113. There's a 24 point gap there. I wonder
how populated those ranges were. But it looks like we are talking
about peak exercise levels, not the daily jog or treadmill run.

>"and higher in men with a decrease in heart rate of <25 beats per minute
>at one minute after the end of exercise than in men with a decrease of
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>cardiovascular disease." but has no indication of exercise regimes or
>fitness levels.
<snip>
>The NJME obviously considered these findings significant, but is it
>perhaps a case of the beneficial effects of exercise being overlooked or
>underappreciated in studying cardiac risk?

I'm not sure what you mean there. The study looks only at the
pretty rare cause of death known as "sudden death." It looks like
they adjusted for other risk factors, but I don't know if those
include levels of exercise (which I doubt) or HDL or BMI, etc.,
all of which are influenced by exercise.
--
Jim Chinnis   Warrenton, Virginia, USA
Don Kirkman - 13 May 2005 08:21 GMT
It seems to me I heard somewhere that Jim Chinnis wrote in article
<hu788196ad829tee81uohjkm0v8ojtshuc@4ax.com>:

>Don Kirkman <donkirk@covad.net> wrote in part:

>>It seems to me I heard somewhere that outrider wrote in article
>><1115937300.484921.305840@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>:

>>>http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/19/1951

>>>See also citation at bottom of abstract.

>>I'm wondering how Jeff, Jim Chinnis, and others respond to this study.
>>Relying on the Scott Gottlieb report (since I'm not registered for the
>>NEJM), I'm curious how the risk levels coordinate with widely-used
>>measures of physical fitness, as well as about the significance of the
>>specific measures they've chosen..

>Don, I haven't seen the full-text report yet and just read the
>abstract. Your comments here look on-target.

Thanks; nice to know.  :-)

>>Quotes are from the Gottlieb news report on the same page Zee cited.

>>"The risk of sudden death from myocardial infarction was higher in men
>>with a resting heart rate >75 beats per minute than in men with a
>>resting heart rate <60 beats per minute (relative risk 3.92 (95%
>>confidence interval 1.91 to 8.00);"

>>This may not correlate closely with fitness, but in general one would
>>expect lower resting heart beats with a higher level of fitness.  Highly
>>trained athletes may have resting heart rates down into the 40 bpm
>>range.

>I think it correlates fairly highly with "fitness" and
>cardiovascular training.

I believe it does, too, but I'm pretty much a "common knowledge" guy
when it comes to these matters.

>>"higher in men with an increase in heart rate during exercise of <89
>>beats per minute than in men with an increase of >113 beats per minute
>>(relative risk 6.18 (2.37 to 16.11);"

>>Assuming for illustration a heart rate of 68 bpm, an increase of 89 bpm
>>equates to 157 bpm and an increase of 113 bpm to 181 bpm.  ISTM those
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>>which I was running twenty to thirty miles a week.  For the first time
>>in months I reached 158 bpm during my morning run today.)

>It looks like the big increase in relative risk is between the two
>extremes of <89 and >113. There's a 24 point gap there. I wonder
>how populated those ranges were. But it looks like we are talking
>about peak exercise levels, not the daily jog or treadmill run.

Good point, though my 165s were also peak stress tests; during
quasi-competitive age-group running my usual was around 150 bpm over the
years.

>>Gottlieb says the "5713 asymptomatic men employed by the Paris civil
>>service [. . .] had undergone standardised graded exercise testing
>>between 1967 and 1972. The men were between the ages of 42 and 53 years
>>at the time of testing, and none had clinically detectable
>>cardiovascular disease." but has no indication of exercise regimes or
>>fitness levels.

>>The NJME obviously considered these findings significant, but is it
>>perhaps a case of the beneficial effects of exercise being overlooked or
>>underappreciated in studying cardiac risk?

>I'm not sure what you mean there. The study looks only at the
>pretty rare cause of death known as "sudden death." It looks like
>they adjusted for other risk factors, but I don't know if those
>include levels of exercise (which I doubt) or HDL or BMI, etc.,
>all of which are influenced by exercise.

I was just musing about the possibility that the results were affected
by exercise without being adequately discounted, but until someone looks
at the full study we can't know that.
Signature

Don Kirkman

Jim Chinnis - 13 May 2005 20:45 GMT
Don Kirkman <donkirk@covad.net> wrote in part:

>>It looks like the big increase in relative risk is between the two
>>extremes of <89 and >113. There's a 24 point gap there. I wonder
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>quasi-competitive age-group running my usual was around 150 bpm over the
>years.

If they are comparing the low with the high 20%, the result isn't
so surprising. Remember that the predictors aren't independent. By
that, I just mean that they are going to be strongly correlated.
For instance, resting pulse has a big effect on how much of an
increase can occur during maximal exercise. If you have a resting
pulse of 45, then bumping it by 113 only gets you to 148. But if
you have a resting pulse of 80, adding 113 puts you at 193, which
is probably beyond many healthy middle-aged men's maximum.

Similarly for the recovery measure. You can't have a steep and
deep recovery if you had a shallow rise or if your resting pulse
is 120...

I think it just adds some data in support of the concept that the
risk of sudden death might be assessable, and that exercise might
lower it a lot in most people, via increase in vagal control,
apart from the other benefits of exercise.

So...if you have high risk according to this study's measures, get
moving...and take your fish oil :-)
--
Jim Chinnis   Warrenton, Virginia, USA
Don Kirkman - 13 May 2005 22:14 GMT
It seems to me I heard somewhere that Jim Chinnis wrote in article
<akv981ljm6g3puikq7cf2stl5m3j64op6a@4ax.com>:

>Don Kirkman <donkirk@covad.net> wrote in part:

>>>It looks like the big increase in relative risk is between the two
>>>extremes of <89 and >113. There's a 24 point gap there. I wonder
>>>how populated those ranges were. But it looks like we are talking
>>>about peak exercise levels, not the daily jog or treadmill run.

>>Good point, though my 165s were also peak stress tests; during
>>quasi-competitive age-group running my usual was around 150 bpm over the
>>years.

>If they are comparing the low with the high 20%, the result isn't
>so surprising. Remember that the predictors aren't independent. By
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>you have a resting pulse of 80, adding 113 puts you at 193, which
>is probably beyond many healthy middle-aged men's maximum.

>Similarly for the recovery measure. You can't have a steep and
>deep recovery if you had a shallow rise or if your resting pulse
>is 120...

>I think it just adds some data in support of the concept that the
>risk of sudden death might be assessable, and that exercise might
>lower it a lot in most people, via increase in vagal control,
>apart from the other benefits of exercise.

>So...if you have high risk according to this study's measures, get
>moving...and take your fish oil :-)

One thing I had muddled in my own mind, so it probably came through the
same way in my post:  I treated the exercise heart rates as though they
were at the end of the observation period, but of course they surely
were not--since some of the subjects had died by then.  So the elevated
heart rates would seem to be part of the initial intake and exercise
period.  This weakens my argument, though I would still suspect that
those levels correlate somewhat with exercise patterns (as well as with
lots of other stuff).
Signature

Don Kirkman

 
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