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Greetings,

The full text of this article is available at:

http://longevity-science.org/Early-Life-Predictors-2003.pdf

Also the requested abstract is attached below.

Thank you for your interest !

Kind regards,

-- Leonid Gavrilov
Author of the book "The Biology of Life Span"
http://longevity-science.org/index.html#Book

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Abstract

The idea of fetal origins of adult degenerative diseases and
early-life programming of late-life health and survival is being
actively discussed in the scientific literature.  This idea is also
important for understanding the historical changes in human lifespan
through the mechanism of technophysio evolution as suggested by Robert
Fogel and Dora Costa.  Can this new concept also be useful to
understand (at least partially) the observed sex disparities in adult
health and longevity?  Are the long-lasting effects of early-life
conditions identical for both sexes, or, on the contrary, are they
sex-specific?  These questions stimulated us to conduct the present
exploratory study on the sex specificity of late-life health outcomes
for early-life effects.

In this study we explored the effects of early-life conditions on
adult lifespan of 16,000 individuals (members of European aristocratic
families born in 1800-1880) using methodology of historical follow-up
study of extinct birth cohorts.  Applying method of multivariate
regression analysis with nominal predictor variables for individual
lifespan as outcome variable, we found that sex differences in adult
life span are indeed modulated by early-life events and conditions.
Specifically, we found that such variables as (1) month of birth and
(2) father's age at person's conception have statistically significant
effects on adult lifespan (life expectancy at age 30) in females, but
not in males.  Female lifespan has bimodal distribution according to
the month of birth (M-shaped curve), while male lifespan is less
affected by the season of birth in our historical dataset.  Similar
M-shaped pattern of month-of-birth effects on adult lifespan was
observed for females born in 1855-1880.  Daughters born to old fathers
(above 45 years) live significantly shorter lives, while sons are less
affected by paternal age at conception.  Death of siblings during
childhood (often used as a proxy for childhood infections in family)
had significant negative impact on adult lifespan of males and females
for more recent birth cohorts (1855-1880), indicating possible
increased selectivity of early mortality.  The findings of this study
provide scientific justification for the need of further more detailed
studies on early-life programming of adult lifespan.

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