Slow Growth Seen in Hepatitis C Market

Jefferies Sees Slower Than Expected Growth in the Hepatitis C Drug
Market
February 28, 2008: 01:18 PM EST

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - The market for oral hepatitis C
treatments could be smaller than Wall Street expects, according to
Jefferies & Co., possibly leaving sales forecasts too high.

Analyst Eun K. Yang, following a discussion with experts, said the
market will likely increase between 20 percent and 30 percent through
2015. There are currently about 80,000 patients being treated in the
U.S.

Hepatitis C is a liver disease caused by the HCV virus and is spread
though direct contact with the blood of an infected person.

Specifically, Yang said, the market potential for oral therapies is
about $2 billion between 2011 and 2015, and $9 billion after 2015, in
a best case scenario. The market will initially be modest, she said,
citing side effects of current sexually transmitted disease
treatments, an aging hepatitis population, co-morbidity rates with
conditions such as HIV, and patient motivation for treatment.

"Long-term, larger potential for oral antivirals is likely to occur in
2015 or beyond," she said. "This market potential will depend on the
availability of a combination of two to three oral antivirals
demonstrating a high success rate."

Meanwhile, most products are in early development and the competitive
outlook is still very fluid, she added.

One exception is Cambridge, Mass.-based Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.,
which plans on starting a late-stage study for its hepatitis C drug
candidate telaprevir in March, with its partner Johnson & Johnson.
Vertex shares fell 19 cents to $18.43, while Johnson & Johnson shares
fell 52 cents to $62.52.

Vertex could face competition from Kenilworth, N.J.-based Schering-
Plough Corp., which is conducting midstage studies on its oral
treatment boceprevir and already sells the injectible treatment
Pegintron. Schering shares fell 43 cents to $21.67.

Brisbane, Calif.-based InterMune Inc., working with Roche, is
developing ITMN-191 as a hepatitis C treatment. Its stock fell 10
cents to $14.36.

Other companies developing hepatitis C treatments include Human Genome
Sciences Inc., Rockville, Md.-based Human Genome Sciences Inc., and
Cambridge, Mass.-based Idera Pharmaceuticals Inc.