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Medical Forum / General / Cardiology / February 2006

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LDL poor predictor of CVD risk

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Susan - 22 Feb 2006 14:46 GMT
://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list
_uids=16476434&query_hl=20&itool=pubmed_docsum

Atherosclerosis. 2006 Feb 11; [Epub ahead of print]
Autoantibodies to oxidized LDL and cardiovascular risk: The Framingham
Offspring Study.

    Wilson PW, Ben-Yehuda O, McNamara J, Massaro J, Witztum J, Reaven
PD.

    Medical University of South Carolina, 96 Jonathan Lucas St, Suite
815, P.O. Box 250609, Charleston, SC 29425, United States; Framingham
Heart Study, Framingham, MA 01702, United States.

    BACKGROUND: The relation between measures of oxidation of lipid
particles and cardiovascular disease has not been extensively
investigated prospectively on a population basis. METHODS: A community
cohort of 1192 men and 1427 women with measures of IgG antibodies to
oxidized LDL were followed 8 years for the development of initial
coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events.
RESULTS: Levels of IgG autoantibodies to a form of oxidized LDL were
significantly associated with age in both sexes, positively with
fibrinogen in men and negatively with HDL cholesterol in women. In
sex-specific models that adjusted for age alone or those that adjusted
for age, cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes mellitus,
there was no relation between level of antibodies to oxidized LDL and
the development of CHD or CVD. CONCLUSION: Autoantibodies to oxidized
LDL were strongly related to age and were not related to incident CHD
or CVD over 8 years of follow up.

    PMID: 16476434 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

===

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstra
ct&list_uids=15840555&query_hl=23&itool=pubmed_docsum

 Ann Epidemiol. 2005 May;15(5):405-13.
    A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular
disease in the Asia Pacific region.

    Barzi F, Patel A, Woodward M, Lawes CM, Ohkubo T, Gu D, Lam TH,
Ueshima H; Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration.

    The George Institute for International Health, University of
Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia. fbarzi@thegeorgeinstitute.org

    PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low
density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein
cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment
recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and
cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid
variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard
ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total
cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values,
and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were
derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort
studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of
each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic.
RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid
variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with
fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid
variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those
with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and
CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to
TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor
predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of
intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use
of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction.

    PMID: 15840555 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

===
Jim Chinnis - 23 Feb 2006 02:31 GMT
Susan <nevermind@nomail.com> wrote in part:

>x-no-archive: yes
>
[quoted text clipped - 68 lines]
>
>===

The first study seems to me to have nothing to do with the subject line of
this thread. It addresses autoantibodies.

From the abstract of the second study:
>each lipid
>variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with
>fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid
>variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those
>with lowest levels.

So 75 %tile LDL doubles your risk, as the others do.

>TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and
>CVD risk compared with TC alone,

Hardly surprising, since TC is the sum of bad and good things!

>with test statistics similar to
>TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios.

This just underscores how TC is a terrible predictor.

>Calculated LDL was a relatively poor
>predictor.

Well...the authors already said that the odds ratio from comparing those
above the 75th percentile with those below the 25th was about the same
regardless of whether you chose LDL, TG, , or 1/HDL. So that means TG and
HDL were "relatively poor" predictors, too. Am I missing something?

What I can conclude is that whoever wrote the abstract for the second study
wasn't very good at it.
--
Jim Chinnis   Warrenton, Virginia, USA
 
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