Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / Prostate Cancer / November 2007
A follow-up on prostate cancer rates in the U.S. and the U.K.
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3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina - 01 Nov 2007 23:57 GMT this is not meant to be a slam on Rudy....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071101/pl_nm/usa_giuliani_britain_dc_1
Richard@RJacobson.com - 02 Nov 2007 03:48 GMT On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina" <3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote:
> this is not meant to be a slam on Rudy.... > > http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071101/pl_nm/usa_giuliani_britain_dc_1 A more telling statistic is death rates of those diagnosed with prostate cancer.
In the US, only 13% of those diagnosed with prostate cancer die of that cancer. In the UK, the death rate is 57%, France is 49% and Canada is 25%.
You can see why the most demanded perk from UK employers is private health insurance.
Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong.
rosbif - 02 Nov 2007 10:05 GMT >On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina" ><3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote: [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > >Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong. Rudy was only right if 57=44.
Don't spend too much time thinking about it.
rosbif - 02 Nov 2007 10:44 GMT >>On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina" >><3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote: [quoted text clipped - 17 lines] > >Don't spend too much time thinking about it. My apologies, my blunder in confusing the living with the dead! (I didn't spend long enough thinking about it)
I'm not an apologist for the NHS, deeply flawed and badly run as it is, but I would more happily pay into a well-run system with a hypothecated tax. Important to remember, the figures on mortality due to prostate cancer today reflect past practise, not current. I don't know where the NHS get their 70% survival figure from but I would expect Giuliani's figure to be old data. The truth probably lies somewhere in between...
ed@math.uchicago.edu - 02 Nov 2007 17:10 GMT On Nov 1, 9:48 pm, Rich...@RJacobson.com wrote:
> A more telling statistic is death rates of those diagnosed with > prostate cancer. [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > > Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong. When comparing prostate cancer (PC) death rates in the US vs. the UK, things are not that simple. Please see: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/a_bogus_cancer_statistic.html for a more detailed factual analysis of this. Especially note that, as they point out, the US is more aggressive in diagnosing PC than the UK is, so you end up with many more patients who never were going to die from PC being diagnosed and treated. This obviously lowers the rate of PC death.
Ed Friedman
Leonard Evens - 02 Nov 2007 17:28 GMT > On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina" > <3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote: [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > > Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong. Where did you get your figures? They don't seem consistent with what I've seen.
But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum. The difference between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until recently, physicians did not engage in routine PSA testing. If you do such testing, you are going to diagnose a lot more cases of prostate cancer and they will be diagnosed much earlier (by about five years on average). That means that you will add a certain number of benign PC cases, which would never had bothered the men involved. Of course those men will appear to have been cured, but they didn't need treatment in the first place. In addition, you will catch a certain number of cases at an early stage where they are curable, which otherwise would have led to death due to prostate cancer. How much each of these factors contributes to the results is anybody's guess.
Now, let me say that I do believe that PSA testing, based on the overall evidence is justified, and that the general practice in the US is justified. but it has not been proven beyond doubt so far, and there are plenty of skeptics about the subject, many of them reputable physicians and researchers, even in the US.
The main difference between the US and other countries is early detection and the related question about whther or not early prostate cancer needs to be treated at all. There is no evidence that once significant prostate cancer is diagnosed that patients in the US receive better treatment than in these other countries.
Fortunately, for those in the UK and Sweden, physicians have been changing their attitudes towards prostate cancer, and recently their statistics have been improving significantly. In fact, the most recent studies showing that aggressive treatment, such as RP, is superior to watchful waiting were done in Sweden.
Note also that men in the US without medical insurance don't get tested and generally when prostate cancer is detected there is nothing much that can be done beyond HT. They fare much worse than men with insurance and men in these other countries who do have access to medical care.
If Giuliani wants to get information about prostate cancer or any other medical subject, he would be well advised to turn to scientists rather than basing his policies on idelogical publications, as it appears he has done in this case.
Whatever else you think about the subject, if you believe early testing and aggressive treatment where merited is justified, you should support universal medical insurance in the US, so that ALL men have access to PSA testing and appropriate treatment.
RalphV - 03 Nov 2007 15:40 GMT Can someone explain how the diagnosis and treatment of men with insignificant prostate cancer can impact actual deaths from PCa? If these men were not destined to die of PCa if never screened, diagnosed and treated, how can a non needed treatment prevent them from dying of something that was not going to kill them in the first place?
The case for early detection and treatment of earlier disease stages has a better potential to reduce PCa deaths, but I do not see the same potential in men treated with so called insignificant disease to impact the actual deaths of PCa. I often wonder how do they know that these men with insignificant disease are not destined to die of PCa? Is this assumption based on the fact that most men at that age will die of cardiovascular disease and therefore die with non clinical stages of prostate cancer (called indolent/histological cancer)?
When one looks at population at risk versus actual deaths, in round numbers: England, Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales: 19.5 Million at risk (ages 25 to 80) Deaths: 10,000 a year. Percent deaths: 0.051
U.S.A.: 83.9 Million at risk (25 to 80) Deaths: 28,000 a year Percentage deaths: 0.033
So the actual deaths here are 65% of the actual deaths in the UK based on population at risk.
RalphV www.pcainaz.org/phpbb
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=5972 http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html
Leonard Evens - 03 Nov 2007 16:40 GMT > Can someone explain how the diagnosis and treatment of men with > insignificant prostate cancer can impact actual deaths from PCa? If [quoted text clipped - 31 lines] > http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=5972 > http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html The fact you point out: that actual deaths due to prostate cancer in the US have declined since PSA testing became common in the early 90s is one of the arguments for believing that such testing is effective and saves lives. Thus, it is relevant to compare the US today with other countries which haven't used routine PSA testing or with the US before testing was common.
Unfortunately, it is not quite that simple. First, there may be other unknown factors which have led to the decline in deaths due to prostate cancer in the US during the period of PSA testing. Second, PSA tesing and the resulting aggressive treatment has some known undesirable side effects. A certain number of men receiving such treatment will suffer serious quality of life problems, and if they in fact did not need treatment because their cancers were benign, that is a cost to consider.
The proper way to test the hypothesis that PSA testing is effective at saving lives is to do a randomized prospective study. There are such studies underway, and the results should be forthcoming down the line. Skeptics about PSA testing, of which there are many, including reputable medical scientists, argue that, since aggressive early treatment involves a certain amount of undesirable side effects, we should wait until the results from such studies are available before recommending PSA testing for the entire population. Most authorities agree that PSA testing is advisable for certain subpopulations and undesirable for others. For example, even Walsh recommends AGAINST PSA testing for men past a certain age, who would not be expected to benefit. You really need something like a 10-15 year expected lifetime in order that the benefits of early treatment exceed the risks.
It is also fairly clear that routine PSA testing inflates the number of cases diagnosed, by diagnosing some cancers which never needed treatment, and diagnoses cases something like 5 years earlier than otherwise would be the case. For both these reasons 5 year survival rates will look much better. So looking at 5 year survival rates will inflate the significance of PSA testing and aggressive treatment of early prostate cancers. The recent statements made by Giuliani concerned survival rates, so that is why this is relevant. (And even that calculations was done in a stupid manner.)
Note by the way that one of the other factors which might explain the difference in number of deaths due to PC between the US and other countries is that treatment, once PS is detected, is superior in the US. If that is true, it might mean that PSA tesing is not really an effective way to deal with prostate cancer, and that death rates would have declined just as much without such testing. Personally, I don't think there is much evidence that such is the case. I think that the real difference is that PSA testing is common in the US and, until recently, was not common in those countries.
I also think this has little to do with how medical care is paid for. Both in the US and in the UK, there are outside agencies which determine to some extent what types of care will be paid for. In the UK, it is the NHS. In the US it is HMOs and insurance companies. You can be sure, for example, that should the randomized prospective studies show no significant advantage for PSA testing, that third party payers will stop paying for it. Of course men can always pay for it out of pocket, but they can do that under any system. And in all the countries under discussion, people who are wealthy enough to buy premium insurace or just pay for it out of pocket will be able to seek whatever tests, treatments, etc. that they deem appropriate.
Let me repeat. If you believe PSA testing, followed by early treatment in appropriate cases, is effective, and you are not just out for yourself, you should support universal health insurance so that all men will have access to it, not just veterans and men over 65.
safire - 10 Nov 2007 17:26 GMT > But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum. The difference > between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until > recently, physicians did not engage in routine PSA testing. In agreement: this week's Barrons:
"But the correct figures are available. The five-year survival rate in the U.K. is 77%, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The most recent U.S. five-year survival rate is 98%. The figures still seem to speak for themselves: Would you rather be a man with prostate cancer in Britain or America? Would you rather have a 77% chance of surviving five years after a diagnosis, or a 98% chance?
THE QUESTIONS ARE BOGUS, even though Giuliani is telling the truth as he sees it. Most of the trans-Atlantic difference in five-year survival rates of men diagnosed with prostate cancer arises from a difference in diagnostic effort. The U.K. National Health Service doesn't administer the blood test for prostate-specific antigens as routinely as U.S. doctors do. Thus, more of the British men identified as having prostate cancer have advanced cases and are more likely to die within five years. Since most American men with health insurance get a PSA test every year or two, their cancers are detected early -- so early that they aren't likely to die within five years, even if they die of prostate cancer eventually.
Would you rather know you have cancer early and make your own choice about how to deal with it, or would you rather take a small chance of undetected prostate cancer sneaking up on you? The question is difficult to answer, because a man with a prostate- cancer diagnosis and the opportunity to choose to have surgery or radiation treatment might actually choose to do nothing, since most (not all) prostate cancers grow very slowly and the side-effects of the possible treatments often are not pleasant.
The American way is to give you all the information possible, even though it costs more to give the test widely. The British way is to scrimp on routine tests so the National Health Service doesn't have to provide as many free operations and radiation treatments on its way to bankrupting the country."
barrons.com
Leonard Evens - 11 Nov 2007 05:33 GMT >> But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum. The difference >> between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until [quoted text clipped - 37 lines] > > barrons.com I think that the last conclusion is not correct. It seems more likely that many physicians in the UK, like the great bulk of US physicians 15 years ago, are still not convinced that PSA testing ultimately saves lives. Also, there are still many US physicians who have the same philosophy. Consider for the example the following quote from the web page of the National Cancer Institute of the US government.
"Your doctor can check you for prostate cancer before you have any symptoms. Screening can help doctors find and treat cancer early. But studies so far have not shown that screening tests reduce the number of deaths from prostate cancer. You may want to talk with your doctor about the possible benefits and harms of being screened. The decision to be screened, like many other medical decisions, is a personal one. You should decide after learning the pros and cons of screening."
See also the entries about prostate cancer at the web page of the American Academy of Family Physicians
familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home.html
which make similar recommendations.
On the other hand, attitudes about PSA testing have been changing in the US in recent years. Consider for example the advice at
www.patient.co.uk/showdoc/23069165/
It is very similar to what a great many US physicians think. I suspect that 10 years from now PSA testing will be as common in the UK as in the US and 5 year survival rates will be very very similar.
In any case, one thing about the US is very clear. If you don't have medical insurance, and you get prostate cancer, the chances of it being detected and treated early are pretty small. More likely, your cancer will be discovered after it has progressed far enough to block urination or else metastasized to bone.
So any man who is concerned about prostate cancer and not just out for himself should be in favor of universal access to PSA testing for men in the US and for appropriate treatment when needed. The simplest way to accomplish this is through universal health insurance. I wonder what Giuliani would say about that.
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