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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / Prostate Cancer / November 2007

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A follow-up on prostate cancer rates in the U.S. and the U.K.

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3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina - 01 Nov 2007 23:57 GMT
this is not meant to be a slam on Rudy....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071101/pl_nm/usa_giuliani_britain_dc_1
Richard@RJacobson.com - 02 Nov 2007 03:48 GMT
On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina"
<3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote:
> this is not meant to be a slam on Rudy....
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071101/pl_nm/usa_giuliani_britain_dc_1

A more telling statistic is death rates of those diagnosed with
prostate cancer.

In the US, only 13% of those diagnosed with prostate cancer die of
that cancer.  In the UK, the death rate is 57%, France is 49% and
Canada is 25%.

You can see why the most demanded perk from UK employers is private
health insurance.

Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong.
rosbif - 02 Nov 2007 10:05 GMT
>On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina"
><3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
>Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong.

Rudy was only right if 57=44.

Don't spend too much time thinking about it.
rosbif - 02 Nov 2007 10:44 GMT
>>On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina"
>><3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
>
>Don't spend too much time thinking about it.

My apologies, my blunder in confusing the living with the dead!
(I didn't spend long enough thinking about it)

I'm not an apologist for the NHS, deeply flawed and badly run as it
is, but I would more happily pay into a well-run system with a
hypothecated tax.  
Important to remember, the figures on mortality due to prostate cancer
today reflect past practise, not current.  I don't know where the NHS
get their 70% survival figure from but I would expect Giuliani's
figure to be old data.  The truth probably lies somewhere in
between...
ed@math.uchicago.edu - 02 Nov 2007 17:10 GMT
On Nov 1, 9:48 pm, Rich...@RJacobson.com wrote:
> A more telling statistic is death rates of those diagnosed with
> prostate cancer.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>
> Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong.

When comparing prostate cancer (PC) death rates in the US vs. the UK,
things are not that simple.  Please see:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/a_bogus_cancer_statistic.html
for a more detailed factual analysis of this.  Especially note that,
as they point out, the US is more aggressive in diagnosing PC than the
UK is, so you end up with many more patients who never were going to
die from PC being diagnosed and treated.  This obviously lowers the
rate of PC death.

Ed Friedman
Leonard Evens - 02 Nov 2007 17:28 GMT
> On Nov 1, 5:57 pm, "3Putt from CoastalSouth Carolina"
> <3putt@PawleysIslandSC> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> Rudy was right and the Brits were wrong.

Where did you get your figures?  They don't seem consistent with what
I've seen.

But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum.   The difference
between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until
recently, physicians did not engage in routine PSA testing.  If you do
such testing,  you are going to diagnose a lot more cases of prostate
cancer and they will be diagnosed much earlier (by about five years on
average).  That means that you will add a certain number of benign PC
cases, which would never had bothered the men involved.  Of course those
men will appear to have been cured, but they didn't need treatment in
the first place.  In addition, you will catch a certain number of cases
at an early stage where they are curable, which otherwise would have led
to death due to prostate cancer.   How much each of these factors
contributes to the results is anybody's guess.

Now, let me say that I do believe that PSA testing, based on the overall
evidence is justified, and that the general practice in the US is
justified.  but it has not been proven beyond doubt so far, and there
are plenty of skeptics about the subject, many of them reputable
physicians and researchers, even in the US.

The main difference between the US and other countries is early
detection and the related question about whther or not early prostate
cancer needs to be treated at all.  There is no evidence that once
significant prostate cancer is diagnosed that patients in the US receive
better treatment than in these other countries.

Fortunately, for those in the UK and Sweden, physicians have been
changing their attitudes towards prostate cancer, and recently their
statistics have been improving significantly.   In fact, the most recent
studies showing that aggressive treatment, such as RP, is superior to
watchful waiting were done in Sweden.

Note also that men in the US without medical insurance don't get tested
and generally when prostate cancer is detected there is nothing much
that can be done beyond HT.   They fare much worse than men with
insurance and men in these other countries who do have access to medical
care.

If Giuliani wants to get information about prostate cancer or any other
medical subject, he would be well advised to turn to scientists rather
than basing his policies on idelogical publications, as it appears he
has done in this case.

Whatever else you think about the subject, if you believe early testing
and aggressive treatment where merited is justified, you should support
universal medical insurance in the US, so that ALL men have access to
PSA testing and appropriate treatment.
RalphV - 03 Nov 2007 15:40 GMT
Can someone explain how the diagnosis and treatment of men with
insignificant prostate cancer  can impact actual deaths from PCa? If
these men were not destined to die of PCa if never screened, diagnosed
and treated, how can a non needed treatment prevent them from dying of
something that was not going to kill them in the first place?

The case for early detection and treatment of earlier disease stages
has a better potential to reduce PCa deaths, but I do not see the same
potential in men treated with so called insignificant disease to
impact the actual deaths of PCa. I often wonder how do they know that
these men with insignificant disease are not destined to die of PCa?
Is this assumption based on the fact that most men at that age will
die of cardiovascular disease and therefore die with non clinical
stages of prostate cancer (called indolent/histological cancer)?

When one looks at population at risk versus actual deaths, in round
numbers:
England, Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales: 19.5 Million at risk (ages 25
to 80)
Deaths: 10,000 a year.
Percent deaths: 0.051

U.S.A.: 83.9 Million at risk (25 to 80)
Deaths: 28,000 a year
Percentage deaths: 0.033

So the actual deaths here are 65% of the actual deaths in the UK based
on population at risk.

RalphV
www.pcainaz.org/phpbb

Source:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=5972
http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html
Leonard Evens - 03 Nov 2007 16:40 GMT
> Can someone explain how the diagnosis and treatment of men with
> insignificant prostate cancer  can impact actual deaths from PCa? If
[quoted text clipped - 31 lines]
> http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=5972
> http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html

The fact you point out: that actual deaths due to prostate cancer in the
US have declined since PSA testing became common in the early 90s is one
of the arguments for believing that such testing is effective and saves
lives.  Thus, it is relevant to compare the US today with other
countries which haven't used routine PSA testing or with the  US before
testing was common.

Unfortunately, it is not quite that simple.   First, there may be other
unknown factors which have led to the decline in deaths due to prostate
cancer in the US during the period of PSA testing.   Second, PSA tesing
and the resulting aggressive treatment has some known undesirable side
effects.  A certain number of men receiving such treatment will suffer
serious quality of life problems, and if they in fact did not need
treatment because their cancers were benign, that is a cost to consider.

The proper way to test the hypothesis that PSA testing is effective at
saving lives is to do a randomized prospective study.   There are such
studies underway, and the results should be forthcoming down the line.
 Skeptics about PSA testing, of which there are many, including
reputable medical scientists, argue that, since aggressive early
treatment involves a certain amount of undesirable side effects, we
should wait until the results from such studies are available before
recommending PSA testing for the entire population.  Most authorities
agree that PSA testing is advisable for certain subpopulations and
undesirable for others.  For example, even Walsh recommends AGAINST PSA
testing for men past a certain age, who would not be expected to
benefit.   You really need something like a 10-15 year expected lifetime
in order that the benefits of early treatment exceed the risks.

It is also fairly clear that routine PSA testing inflates the number of
cases diagnosed, by diagnosing some cancers which never needed
treatment, and diagnoses cases something like 5 years earlier than
otherwise would be the case.  For both these reasons 5 year  survival
rates will look much better.  So looking at 5 year survival rates will
inflate the significance of PSA testing and aggressive treatment of
early prostate cancers.  The recent statements made by Giuliani
concerned survival rates, so that is why this is relevant.  (And even
that calculations was done in a stupid manner.)

Note by the way that one of the other factors which might explain the
difference in number of deaths due to PC between the US and other
countries is that treatment, once PS is detected, is superior in the US.
  If that is true, it might mean that PSA tesing is not really an
effective way to deal with prostate cancer, and that death rates would
have declined just as much without such testing.  Personally,  I don't
think there is much evidence that such is the case.   I think that the
real difference is that PSA testing is common in the US and, until
recently, was not common in those countries.

I also think this has little to do with how medical care is paid for.
Both in the US and in the UK, there are outside agencies which determine
to some extent what types of care will be paid for.  In the UK, it is
the NHS.  In the US it is HMOs and insurance companies.   You can be
sure, for example, that should the randomized prospective studies show
no significant advantage for PSA testing, that third party payers will
stop paying for it.   Of course men can always pay for it out of pocket,
but they can do that under any system.  And in all the countries under
discussion, people who are wealthy enough to buy premium insurace or
just pay for it out of pocket will be able to seek whatever tests,
treatments, etc. that they deem appropriate.

Let me repeat.  If you believe PSA testing, followed by early treatment
in appropriate cases, is effective, and you are not just out for
yourself, you should support universal health insurance so that all men
will have access to it, not just veterans and men over 65.
safire - 10 Nov 2007 17:26 GMT
> But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum.   The difference
> between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until
> recently, physicians did not engage in routine PSA testing.  

In agreement: this week's Barrons:

"But the correct figures are available. The five-year survival rate in
the U.K. is 77%, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The most recent U.S. five-year survival rate is 98%.
The figures still seem to speak for themselves: Would you rather be a
man with prostate cancer in Britain or America? Would you rather have a
77% chance of surviving five years after a diagnosis, or a 98% chance?

THE QUESTIONS ARE BOGUS, even though Giuliani is telling the truth as he
sees it. Most of the trans-Atlantic difference in five-year survival
rates of men diagnosed with prostate cancer arises from a difference in
diagnostic effort. The U.K. National Health Service doesn't administer
the blood test for prostate-specific antigens as routinely as U.S.
doctors do. Thus, more of the British men identified as having prostate
cancer have advanced cases and are more likely to die within five years.
Since most American men with health insurance get a PSA test every year
or two, their cancers are detected early -- so early that they aren't
likely to die within five years, even if they die of prostate cancer
eventually.

Would you rather know you have cancer early and make your own choice
about how to deal with it, or would you rather take a small chance of
undetected prostate cancer sneaking up on you? The question is difficult
to answer, because a man with a prostate- cancer diagnosis and the
opportunity to choose to have surgery or radiation treatment might
actually choose to do nothing, since most (not all) prostate cancers
grow very slowly and the side-effects of the possible treatments often
are not pleasant.

The American way is to give you all the information possible, even
though it costs more to give the test widely. The British way is to
scrimp on routine tests so the National Health Service doesn't have to
provide as many free operations and radiation treatments on its way to
bankrupting the country."

barrons.com
Leonard Evens - 11 Nov 2007 05:33 GMT
>> But, as I've repeatedly pointed out in this forum.   The difference
>> between the US and countries such as the UK or Sweden is that until
[quoted text clipped - 37 lines]
>
> barrons.com

I think that the last conclusion is not correct.   It seems more likely
that many physicians in the UK, like the great bulk of US physicians 15
years ago, are still not convinced that PSA testing ultimately saves
lives.  Also, there are still many US physicians who have the same
philosophy.  Consider for the example the following quote from the web
page of the National Cancer Institute of the US government.

"Your doctor can check you for prostate cancer before you have any
symptoms.
Screening  can help doctors find and treat cancer early. But studies so far
have not shown that screening tests reduce the number of deaths from
prostate cancer. You may want to talk with your doctor about the possible
benefits and harms of being screened. The decision to be screened,
like many other medical decisions, is a personal one. You should decide
after learning the pros and cons of screening."

See also the entries about prostate cancer at the web page of the
American Academy of Family Physicians

familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home.html

which make similar recommendations.

On the other hand, attitudes about PSA testing have been changing in the
US in recent years.  Consider for example the advice at

www.patient.co.uk/showdoc/23069165/

It is  very similar to what a great many US physicians think.  I suspect
that 10 years from now PSA testing will be as common in the UK as in the
US and 5 year survival rates will be very very similar.

In any case, one thing about the US is very clear.  If you don't have
medical insurance,  and you get prostate cancer,  the chances of it
being detected and treated early are pretty small.  More likely, your
cancer will be discovered after it has progressed far enough to block
urination or else metastasized to bone.

So any man who is concerned about prostate cancer and not just out for
himself should be in favor of universal access to PSA testing for men in
the US and for appropriate treatment when needed.  The simplest way to
accomplish this is through universal health insurance.  I wonder what
Giuliani would say about that.
 
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