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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / Prostate Cancer / June 2005

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Questions regarding recurrance - What the hell?

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Dick Smith - 02 Jun 2005 05:49 GMT
I received Dr Catalona Quest Newsletter: An article written by Jules
Reichel of the URF board writes:

http://www.drcatalona.com/quest/Spring05/quest_spring05_6.asp

Recurrence over the 10 years after treatment was much too frequent. On
average:

For Low-risk patients: normally PSA= 10ng/ml or less, and Gleason
Score= 6 or less, there was 20% recurrence.

Medium-risk patients: normally PSA between 10 and 20ng/ml, or Gleason
Score = 7, there was 50% recurrence.

High-risk patients: normally PSA greater than 20ng/ml, or Gleason Score
8-10, there was 66% recurrence.

and

For the Gleason Score 5-7 patients, the probability of metastasis
varied between 16 and 25% at 7 years; and for the Gleason Score 8-10
patients, the probability of metastasis varied between 43% and 93% at 7
years after recurrence.

I was ALWAYS under the impression that the odds of recurrance for PCa
was low. After reading this article I'm lead to believe that is NOT the
case.

Jules  goes on and writes about the "New Era" PSA testing:

Earlier screening beginning at age 40 (or 35 in some cases);
A PSA screening threshold of 2.5ng/ml with the potential of early
biopsy using 12 or more cores;

Emphasis on improved diagnostic techniques especially including the use
of PSA velocity and doubling time to guide the necessity for and the
type of treatment;

Emphasis on viewing surgery and follow-up high dosage radiation therapy
(usually IMRT at dosage levels over 70Gy), when required, as a
compatible pair of processes rather than only as opposing options;

Non-invasive treatment of patients with cancer-precursor high grade PIN
disease, when appropriate. Many men at age 50 have PIN. The presence of
"high grade" PIN (HGPIN) implies later cancer in almost half of
men. (This work is in-progress).

Prostate cancer RUNS IN MY FAMILY. How the hell am I suppose to prevent
it from killing me if I get it? Looking at the odds that Jules writes,
even with a Gleason 6, I still have a 1 in 5 shot of dying from it! And
if I have the more common Gleason 7, Jules writes 50%...Someone please
help me understand. I was under the impression that if caught early esp
with a low gleason and PSA, the chances were suppose to be like 98% of
NO recurance.
c palmer - 02 Jun 2005 10:54 GMT
hi dick - i was going to put this post in the psa thread, but you
specifically was asking about recurrence of pca.   this one paragraph
really bothered me, but he explains a lot about the psa concern.  first,
the parapraph, then the entire article.

~ curtis

=================a successful radical prostatectomy should result in an undetectable PSA
level. Actually, nothing is ever that simple. It is possible to leave
benign glands at the bladder neck during prostatectomy. This can result
in a low level of PSA production. Also, tiny quantities of PSA are made
in some accessory glands along the urethra.

========Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA)
What is PSA?
             PSA is a protein manufactured in the prostate and
virtually no other organ. Women, who lack prostates, do not have
detectable levels of PSA. Actually, PSA is the enzyme responsible for
liquifaction of semen a few minutes after it has clotted. The prostate
glands manufacture this protein in large quantities.
 
             If you look at this photomicrograph you can see a single
normal prostate gland tubule cut in cross section. The cells lining the
center, or lumen, manufacture prostate secretions including PSA. There
is also a circle around the cells, called the basement membrane, which
stops PSA and other secretions from entering the blood stream. All of
your glands, your intestines, and your urinary tract are organized the
same way: a secreting or absorbing layer of cells with a basement
membrane to keep a tight separation between the inside and the outside.
That is how the prostate makes a lot of PSA but only a tiny amount
normally is found in the blood.
What causes abnormal PSA levels?

             You need to understand that the prostate gland cells (the
epithelium) are manufacturing PSA. The cells will continue to
manufacture PSA if they are in locations outside the prostate. PSA
levels in the blood go up if the barrier between the epithelium and the
bloodstream is damaged. Three typical sources for damage are: cancer,
bacterial infection, and prostate infarction or destruction of part of
the prostate by damage to its blood supply.
             Minor elevation of the PSA levels is sometimes due to
cancer, but normally a little PSA leaks from the prostate into the
blood. If the prostate is enlarged then the leakage appears exaggerated.
This is probably why the PSA can be slightly abnormal in men with
enlarged prostates who do not have cancer. Trauma to the prostate, as by
physicians performing prostate massage, and sex can also cause minor
transient elevations of PSA.
             The PSA level in the blood can vary by about 20% from day
to day. Nevertheless, the data are clear that a single abnormal PSA
value puts one in the higher group for prostate cancer. Now that we know
the test can be falsely elevated by trauma, infections, and intercourse,
we inquire after these factors before accepting the validity of the
blood test.
How does PSA assist cancer treatment?
             Before getting into the complicated business of how we use
PSA in cancer detection I want to make clear its use in monitoring
cancer treatment. Since only prostate cells make PSA, a successful
radical prostatectomy should result in an undetectable PSA level.
Actually, nothing is ever that simple. It is possible to leave benign
glands at the bladder neck during prostatectomy. This can result in a
low level of PSA production. Also, tiny quantities of PSA are made in
some accessory glands along the urethra.
             Naturally, PSA is a wonderful marker for the success of
prostate cancer surgery. If we remove a patient's prostate and all of
the cancer was inside, then the PSA should go to very low levels. If
some cancer cells had escaped from the prostate, then the PSA will
remain measurable or become measurable and continue to rise after a few
years. As a practical matter, PSA readings over 0.5 usually indicate
residual or recurrent cancer following radiation or surgery
How do we use PSA for diagnosis of prostate cancer?
             To us, the data are clear that prostate cancer screening
is beneficial. Patients who are at risk for prostate cancer include men
over age 50. The sons and brothers of prostate cancer patients should
start screening earlier as their risk of prostate cancer is at least
double the general population. We have recommended age 40 for a first
PSA for these men. African Americans also have a higher risk of prostate
cancer. Unhappily, the national rate of participation of African
Americans in screening programs is poor.
             PSA is reported in terms of nanograms of protein per
milliliter of serum (ng/ml). The scale is open-ended. Men with advanced
and widespread prostate cancer can have PSA readings over 2,000 ng/ml.
The assay is performed using labelled antibodies on a serum sample. The
test is run most days. You do not have to fast for this blood test.
             The general rule is that PSA is normal from 0 to 4.0. If
the level is between 4.0 and 10.0 then about 35% of men have prostate
cancer. If the level is between 10.0 and 20.0 then about 65% of men will
be found to have prostate cancer. Levels above 20, in the absence of
infection, are usually associated with more advanced prostate cancer. We
use a PSA of 20 as our cutoff for prostate biopsy in very old men who do
not have symptoms. If the PSA is over 20 we worry that they will turn up
one day with prostate cancer that has spread to their spine. To prevent
this, we want to make the diagnosis and start treatment .
             As always, the situation is a little more involved than
I've implied. First off, men around 50 years old with small prostates
should have PSA readings below 2.4. Conversely, men in their seventies
with large prostates are probably normal up to a PSA of 5.6. Finally, if
the physical examination is suspicious for prostate cancer we proceed
with biopsy even if the PSA is normal.
             Men with a suspicious digital rectal exam and a normal PSA
should undergo biopsy only in the suspicious area. Men with an elevated
PSA undergo biopsies throughout their prostate gland. This disciplined
approach to biopsy allowed us to demonstrate that even a little cancer
in the biopsy specimen meant that the patient had a significant prostate
cancer.
             We recommend prostate ultrasound and biopsy for early
diagnosis in men who are candidates for definitive treatment if we
discover prostate cancer. This means that in men of advanced age and
those with major heart or lung diseases we recommend biopsy only when we
see a high risk of rapidly progressive cancer.
What is the role of free PSA?
             Scientists and physicians have been trying to make the PSA
test even more useful for several years. Most of these attempts (PSA
density, PSA velocity, age dependent PSA ranges) were impossible to
verify and were not very useful. Free PSA, however, is both reproducible
and useful. Free PSA is that percentage of the total PSA which
circulates in the blood without a carrier protein.

             The graph on the right, provided by Dianon, Inc., bears
careful study. The horizontal axis is the percentage of free PSA. The
two graphs come from analysis of 4,000 patients with abnormal total PSA
between 4 and 10 ng/ml. The red line, corresponding to prostate cancer
patients, has a sharp peak at 10%. Most patients with prostate cancer
have a free PSA less than 15%. The blue line corresponds to the
distribution of free PSA in patients whose biopsies did not show
prostate cancer. AUC means "area under the curve". The relative size of
the area under the curves for prostate cancer and benign prostate
enlargement correspond to the chances of finding prostate cancer.
             The point here is that patients with PSA below 7% usually
have prostate cancer. They should undergo biopsy. If biopsy is negative
they need repeat biopsy at frequent intervals if the free PSA is
reproducibly low. Patients with free PSA over 25% usually have benign
prostate hyperplasia. These patients should, in our opinion, undergo a
single ultrasound and biopsy session. As a single session is about 85%
accurate in finding prostate cancer these patients have a residual risk
after biopsy of less than 3%. Therefore, they need their blood rechecked
annually but do not require repeat biopsy evaluation unless the free PSA
starts to fall or the total PSA continues to rise, which would imply
interval development of a cancer.
   Total PSA Range 2.5 to 4.0 ng/ml
Age Range (Years) %Free PSA<60 (yrs)>` (yrs)All
Ages<78495917-1525494316-25102722>25276   Total PSA Range 4.01 to 10.0
ng/ml
Age Range (Years) %Free PSA<60 (yrs)>` (yrs)All
Ages<78795937-1527504816-25122727>25377 Total PSA Range10.01 to 20.0
ng/ml
Age Range (Years) %Free PSA<60 (yrs)>` (yrs)All
Ages<79397977-1543716716-25224745>2551515
             Free PSA may eventually allow us to forego biopsy
altogether in men with PSA between 4 and 10 and a free PSA of >24%.
Below are the tables from Dianon regarding cutoff ranges for PSA II and
prostate cancer risk. We think that these tables allow physicians and
patients to make reasonable decisions as to the need for prostate
biopsy. There is no clear right or wrong answer as to when biopsy should
be undertaken. In our practice, we prefer to err toward more biopsies in
patients with a life expectancy over 20 years. We tend to look for
reasons not to biopsy men with a life expectancy right around 10 years.
In men with truly abbreviated life expectancies, we perform prostate
biopsy only when there is a suggestion of aggressive rapidly growing
cancer.

knowledge is power - growing old is mandatory - growing wise is optional    
"Many more men die with prostate cancer than of it. Growing old is
invariably fatal. Prostate cancer is only sometimes so."
http://community.webtv.net/PALMER_ENT/doc
Dick Smith - 02 Jun 2005 16:38 GMT
Curtis, I'm assuming that paragraph could pertain to a small rise in
PSA without the cancer returning?

>From my reading it seems that for men under 50 anything over .7, one
needs to watch more careful, perhaps this is where the PSAV plays an
important role.

http://www.drcatalona.com/quest/Winter04/quest_winter04_1.asp
"Q: What do you recommend for prostate cancer screening?
A: I recommend an annual PSA and digital rectal examination beginning
at age 40, or earlier in men with a family history of early
age-at-onset prostate cancer.

A PSA level of 0.6 to 0.7 or less in men 40 to 50 years old is evidence
of a healthy prostate gland."
c palmer - 02 Jun 2005 21:07 GMT
Curtis, I'm assuming that paragraph could pertain to a small rise in PSA
without the cancer returning?
===========

this is the problem that shows up with an elevated psa after the RP.
the reason the psa level shows up is because there are some prostate
cells left behind.  are they the  good ones, BPH cells, or PCa cells.
only time will tell and that is one hell of a waiting game.

i've already got my first taste of it and didn't like it.

~ curtis

knowledge is power - growing old is mandatory - growing wise is optional    
"Many more men die with prostate cancer than of it. Growing old is
invariably fatal. Prostate cancer is only sometimes so."
http://community.webtv.net/PALMER_ENT/doc
David S. - 02 Jun 2005 12:23 GMT
Another one up at the wee hours of the morning.  Can't you guys sleep??

Well Dick, you certainly awoke me from a comfortable state of ignorant
bliss.  I had no idea that I still had such a high chance of reoccurrence
after ten years.  Guess I will keep those life insurance policies paid up
after all.  Come to think of it, the uro was strangely silent on this
subject when giving me the path report.  All I heard was organ contained
disease and clear surgical margins and thought I was out of the woods.
Better start eating more tomatoes (lycopene, is that the good stuff?).

On you family history, just keep on top of the PSA's and stay well educated
on the subject so you are ahead of the game if you face making a treatment
decision in the future.  I had a friend whose father died of PCa and my
buddy did not even know his PSA (age 55+).  Scary.  He was tested at my
prompting, and no problem.  Lucky for him...so far.

   Good luck to you.

   Thank you for this information.  I am glad to know this even though it
did scare me a bit.

David S.

> I received Dr Catalona Quest Newsletter: An article written by Jules
> Reichel of the URF board writes:
[quoted text clipped - 50 lines]
> with a low gleason and PSA, the chances were suppose to be like 98% of
> NO recurance.
Dick Smith - 02 Jun 2005 16:44 GMT
David, didn't mean to startle you. I just seem to be reading
conflicting articles.

Acutally Dr Catalona does recommend Lycopene.

"After reviewing the data of this report, I only recommend Vitamin E in
doses of 80 milligrams or less, except for patients at risk for severe
macular degeneration.

I still recommend a low saturated fat, low red meat, high vegetable
diet with daily selenium 200 micrograms, lycopene 30 milligrams and an
inexpensive multivitamin."

http://www.drcatalona.com/quest/Spring05/quest_spring05_8.asp

I did notice he made no reference to the tocopherols in  vitamin E.
Leonard Evens - 02 Jun 2005 12:26 GMT
> I received Dr Catalona Quest Newsletter: An article written by Jules
> Reichel of the URF board writes:
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
> was low. After reading this article I'm lead to believe that is NOT the
> case.

Go back and read the article again.  The point is to distinguish between
results before PSA screening and early detection were common from what
seems true with such methods in force.   The listed figures were from
the "old, bad days".   The point of early detection is to catch prostate
cancer before it metastasizes.   The high recurrence rates from the
pre-PSA era are an indication that many cases were not caught before
metastasis occurred.  Later in the article he gives figures on
likelihood of recurrence under today's conditions, which are much lower.

Critics of PSA testing would respond that a recurrence rate of 20
percent for Gleason 6 cases is not that bad, and that with PSA testing
many more men whose cancers would never have bothered them are being
treated.   I guess it depends on your perspective: whether you are more
worried about the side effects of treatment or the disease.

Gleason 7 cases, by the way, are much less common than Gleason 6 cases,
which consitute the vast majority of prostate cancers that are treated
these days.

> Jules  goes on and writes about the "New Era" PSA testing:
>
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
> with a low gleason and PSA, the chances were suppose to be like 98% of
> NO recurance.
Ron B - 02 Jun 2005 13:32 GMT
I get the Quest newsletter also and if I weren't ALREADY peeing in my
pants (although it's getting better...I hope :-), my initial reaction
was to START.

Then, as Len pointed out, I re-read the piece and realized that it WAS
about the time when PSA wasn't used as a predictor the way that it is
now.

Still, after having a good path report with no lymph node or seminal
vesicle involvement and free margins, I was surprised that Dr. Catalona
never said anything to me about "cure" or "we got it all", etc.

He said that it was good news and the 5 week post-op PSA was
undetectable which was ALSO good news.

I had meant to ask him (but didn't)...how it could come back?

I think that Curtis pointed out a bit of that.

I can STILL call the doc but will wait a bit.

He wants a PSA in 6 months and a DRE in a year.

I HAVE thought about recurrence but as David S. said...with negative
results and confined tumor...hopefully things will be good.

I'm glad that this topic was brought up as upon reading the said 'Quest'
article...I was reaching for the phone.

Good Health,

Ron B.

Chicago
Leonard Evens - 03 Jun 2005 02:36 GMT
> I get the Quest newsletter also and if I weren't ALREADY peeing in my
> pants (although it's getting better...I hope :-), my initial reaction
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
> I had meant to ask him (but didn't)...how it could come back?

The question is whether or not the cancer was in fact totally confined
to the prostate.  If that was the case, then your surgery cured you
without a doubt.   If some cancer took up residence outside the prostate
before your surgery, then there are two possibilities.  First, it could
be just be extension from the prostate, and in that case, it would be
confined to the local area and it would be possible to cure it with
radiation.  Second, cancer with metastatic capability might have taken
up residence at remote sites.  In that case,  the surgery couldn't cure
you.  The best it could do is to reduce the amount of cancer in your
body, but the remote cancer would likely develop at some later date.  In
that case, you would need hormone therapy which could control the cancer
for some period of time.

In a case like yours,  the likelihood that the cancer was entirely
contained in the prostate and you are now cured is very high.  But it
isn't 100 percent.  There is still a remote possibility that it will
recur.  As time goes on, if your PSA stays undetectable, the likelihood
of it every recurring gets even smaller.   So in a sense you approach a
cured state but you never actually get there.

> I think that Curtis pointed out a bit of that.
>
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> Chicago
Dick Smith - 02 Jun 2005 16:27 GMT
Leonard,
I have gone back and re-read it, but fail to see where Jules Reichel
states the statistics were from pre-PSA. In fact Reichel  writes "The
Rate of recurrence in the PSA-Era was too high". He then goes on to
mention a "New PSA era". Essentially a lower cut off point with the
inclusion of fPSA and PSAV.

HOWEVER Reichel article uses a higher PSA cut offs points. For Gleason
6, he uses PSA 10 or less. 10-20 for Gleason 7 and over 20 for Gleason
above 8. I'm not sure what distinction that has from using a standard
PSA 4 for all gleason scores. It's actually a fairly confusing article
since he's not using the standard PSA 4.0 cut off point that's been
applied for over 10 years.

Reichel states "Recurrence over the 10 years after treatment was much
too frequent. On average:

--For Low-risk patients: normally PSA= 10ng/ml or less, and Gleason
Score= 6 or less, there was 20% recurrence.

--Medium-risk patients: normally PSA between 10 and 20ng/ml, or Gleason
Score = 7, there was 50% recurrence.

--High-risk patients: normally PSA greater than 20ng/ml, or Gleason
Score 8-10, there was 66% recurrence."

Does anyone know if the Partin tables correspond to Reichel's 10 year
"findings"?

Plus in the Winter edition of Quest, Dr Catalona states "Fortunately,
now, most cancers we find are organ confined, and treatment by a
skilled doctor provides a good chance of no recurrence in a large
majority of patients."
http://www.drcatalona.com/quest/Winter04/quest_winter04_1.asp

I'm going to Email Jules Reichel - He needs better clarification in
this article.

Does Dr Catalona approve all articles before they are published?

If I get PCa in my 40's or 50's, I want a better shot than 50/50 of
being around in 10 years if it's the path report says 3+4 or higher!!
Leonard Evens - 03 Jun 2005 02:53 GMT
> Leonard,
> I have gone back and re-read it, but fail to see where Jules Reichel
> states the statistics were from pre-PSA. In fact Reichel  writes "The
> Rate of recurrence in the PSA-Era was too high".

right after that, the recurrence figures we have been discussing are listed.

The look further down after "The New_Era offers something better".

> He then goes on to
> mention a "New PSA era". Essentially a lower cut off point with the
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> above 8. I'm not sure what distinction that has from using a standard
> PSA 4 for all gleason scores.

PSA 4.0 was the cut-off point previously used for deciding whether or
not to do a biopsy.  Due to recent research by Dr. Catalona and others,
 that seems to be reduced to 2.5, particularly for men in their 50s.

The PSA 10 number refers to something different.  Generally, the higher
the PSA before treatment, the greater the likelihood of metastasis.
PSA m10 seems to be a natural division point with men who have PSA less
than 10 having a significantly better prognosis than men with PSA
greater than 10.  But, of course, not all the PSA > 10 have recurrence
and some of the PSA < 10 men don't avoid recurrence.

>  It's actually a fairly confusing article
> since he's not using the standard PSA 4.0 cut off point that's been
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> Does anyone know if the Partin tables correspond to Reichel's 10 year
> "findings"?

The Partin tables only indirectly have anything to do with estimates of
recurrence.  The Partin tables only tell the likelihood of the
pathologist seeing various things when he examines the tissue that was
removed in radical prostatectomay.   For example, for a Gleason 7=3+4
T1c cancer with PSA less than 10, the likelihood of seminal vesicle or
lymph node invovlement is only about 5 percent or so.   But the
pathologist can't examine your entire body under a microscope so he
can't eliminate the possibility that some cancer cells exist elsewhere
in your body.  If cancer gets to the lymph nodes, that makes it more
likely that you have the beginnings of metastatic cancer, but even in
that case, it is not certain.

> Plus in the Winter edition of Quest, Dr Catalona states "Fortunately,
> now, most cancers we find are organ confined, and treatment by a
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> If I get PCa in my 40's or 50's, I want a better shot than 50/50 of
> being around in 10 years if it's the path report says 3+4 or higher!!

Under current practice, with a Gleason 7=3+4 cancer,  your chances of
being around in 10 years are much, much higher than 50 percent.   I'm
familiar with those statistics since I had exactly such a cancer.
Alan Meyer - 05 Jun 2005 15:27 GMT
> ... It's actually a fairly confusing article
> since he's not using the standard PSA 4.0 cut off point that's been
> applied for over 10 years. ...

The PSA numbers cited in the article refer to cutoff points for
different "risk" levels of disease.

< 4.0 was thought to mean that a man didn't have cancer - though
current thinking is that 4.0 is too high to conclude that.

<10.0 and Gleason < 7 mean "low-risk" cancer.  This cancer is not
as likely to kill you, or to kill you as quickly, as the higher risk cancers.

Between 10 and 20, or Gleason 7 meant "intermediate risk"

>20 or Gleason >=8 meant "high-risk" cancer.

   Alan
 
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