G'day all, Quite obviously most fowl throughout Europe will now be
affected, Greece is the latest.
The united Kingdom and other countries will logically follow.
The "flu" season is present, poorly aerated conditions in buildings
exists as energy is conserved, this is especially exacerbated by the
current oil costs.
The main interest is in the H5N1 varietal strain which curently rapidly
kills these birds, usually in a couple of days, but in it's present
form does not present a problem as far as a human pandemic is
concerned.
The Vietnamese girl's story (as mentioned) was from a family that had
eaten "Duck-blood soup" which apparently has an element of poorly
cooked material.
Most of that family tested positive to H5N1, the older brother did
recover and the elders of the family don't seem to have suffered ill
effects. The family was apparently used to consuming less than healthy
fowl. Many families in this region consume their sick or dead animals
as a matter of course.
I would imagine these peoples blood would now auction off at good
prices.

We have just had a post covering and reccommending the use of feather
pillows, this is ironic!
I have finally noted that someone has had the sense to stop poultry
products being exported and imported as the case might be with some of
the problem areas.
Someone has just "twinked" to the "egg" situation, in some places these
things used to be called "bacteria bombs", this in itself has massive
implications with products made using eggs and their source.
The poorer places may accept that the fowl need to be destroyed, but
imagine some clever poor farmer trying to save feathers or eggs, as far
as I know the current method is simple destruction of animals.
Quite obviously irradiation of products may have some assistive effect,
but the ladder exists.
It is most likely that a person that has a normal influenza infection
of some description that comes into contact with the H5N1 thing has the
possibility of generating a potent weapon, the terrorist mentality
would be well aware of this and probably be already trying to develop
it and most likely "would" have.
Looking at the overall odds of this happening in the current areas
where both bugs exist, things would appear to be somewhat grim. A bit
like some rash person being in a gunpowder magazine in the dark and
having a box of matches in their pocket!

With the 1918 version, the main area for infection was between the ages
of twenty to fifty as far as I know, but that was a civilisation which
were not associated with immune system depleting drugs, so if this
pattern were followed we would likely be looking at something somewhat
different!
Of course if a complete isolation and quarantine principle were
involved it may slow down the infection spread, but if the bug is
transmitted as an airborne particle, any place with recirculating
airconditioning could be one of the main infection mechanisms.
This could well be worth considering. Shutting down aircon in buildings
has no improvment effect because the ventilation systems remain
essentially as recirc.
We have a society where windows do not open, trains, buses, planes,
buildings, some homes even have non-opening windows.
So it may not be best for your family to run out and buy "feather
pillows" then purchase overseas imported products with "egg or chicken
content", come home with the "flu" and if you are between twenty and
fifty living in a total recirc "air-conditioned" home expect zero
problem!

The other side of this, is that the persons less likely to be affected
are those living in remote places with little contact to outside world
with complete aeration, which is not us!

Of course the world could just "shut down" and no one move, but this is
not an option.

Air scrubbing systems would be a step in the right direction, these
would have to be high volume and probably require to be high intensity
ozone devices with charcoal filtering, this technology is the only one
I know of that would be suitable. These would have to be immediately
installed in most cases.

Some people may adopt the principle of remaining in their homes, this
is a good idea if you are well off, but most couldn't possibly do it.
I would imagine credit companies are already considering credit
limiting.

Airlines and passenger ship companies already have contingency plans as
do many governments.

One thing that might be worth considering is dumping the "Colonel's"
shares and placing that money into "Internet Grocery" and "Online
Shopping" organisations, these will suddenly have vital qualities for
many people.

Would it be best to prioritise younger people for medical assistance if
it comes to that?
I know if I am involved with any triage situation what I will be
doing!!

It most certainly is food for thought for us old expendables!

Cousin Jack's idea is pretty sound, but the need for getting booze
would preclude the isolation.
Usually those that try hardest to avoid getting problems get them! And
those that are teetollers usually get them worst. What period of
isolation time starting "when" and finishing "when", were you planning
Jack?
Don't forget mutation may happen with other animals apart from humans,
so your best bet is probably going to be just to use commonsense,
breathe less (Like Buteyko breathing) and maybe wear a surgical type
mask to avoid breathing aiborne particles as much as possible in those
areas of concern.
Here in Australia there is movement toward vaccine ideas, there are
supplies of Tamiflu and Relenza, but it would be expected that any
breakout would most likely be resistant as, when and if it may happen.


This is really Cay sera sera stuff!

Cheers, Merlin.

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Expert Reviews:

http://www.airsupply.ca/lantos.php was on the SARs commission in 2003
outbreak in Canada.
http://www.airsupply.ca/vadas.php