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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / Alzheimer's / January 2006

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Huge Increase in Alzheimer's, Dementia Predicted

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Pat Stewart - 17 Dec 2005 04:18 GMT
"We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million
new cases of dementia every year," the experts report in the Dec. 17 issue
of The Lancet. "The number of people [with dementia] will double every 20
years, to 81.1 million by 2040," they added.

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2005/12/15/hscout529735.html

Most of us who have dealt with this disease are not surprised.  We knew this
was happening, and we knew it was only a matter of time before the world
heard this news.

If this doesn't push the world into more research for a cure for AD, I don't
know what will.

God help us all.

Patty
Anthony Shipley - 20 Dec 2005 06:43 GMT
>"We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million
>new cases of dementia every year," the experts report in the Dec. 17 issue
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>If this doesn't push the world into more research for a cure for AD, I don't
>know what will.

First of all, we can expect it to be not soon enough.

The nature of the disease - given it's within the most complex part of our
anatomy - means it's going to be quite some time before there is a cure, if any.
Likewise, any potential cure will need significant testing on (unfortunate)
animals and humans. Likewise, the costs of development and what patients must
bear, suggests quite a while before it becomes widely available (remember, this
cure is for people who aren't active within the world's economies).

Likewise, we might expect that development of drugs/procedures for others may
benefit, somewhat, from the knowledge gained about the brain. Unfortunately, and
I'm less certain about this, is that people in the third world will suffer
disproportionally with respect to distribution and availabilty of drugs and
medicos.

Obviously, all the above is speculation (but I'm still capable of that). One of
the first things that go with A.D. is others' perception of what the sufferer is
capable of.

Thus, my wife is staying at a friend's house one night this week. There's a
certain amount of alarm that I don't think that's necessary. I'm not
incontinent, I'm still numerate and pretty  fluent (conversation that is not
informal), is diminuishing (and the previous word might suggest I'm too lazy to
look it up in the dictionary :-).

Providing there is a note to remind me where she is (if I wake up in the night),
I will cope. If necessary, I can disturb one of several households - even though
they might not know me - a). I could also phone one of several friends (but,
obviously, not too often).

anthony shipley

Run away with me; I can make you unhappy.
frazzled - 25 Dec 2005 15:20 GMT
That is interesting.  In their prediction of an increase, did they take
into account the fact that many now in their 80's-90's are undiagnosed?

> "We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million
> new cases of dementia every year," the experts report in the Dec. 17 issue
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> Patty
So tired - 01 Jan 2006 22:16 GMT
To be kind the full study in the Lancet openly states total guess work on
their numbers for developing nations. Making the study garbage but the
Lancet stands by it so I'll go with it.

http://www.alz.co.uk/media/nr051216.html

The expected cases will double in developed countries and triple in
developing countries.

This means there is a DIRECT correlation to technology in use. In countries
going to a more "western" lifestyle Alzheimer's is expected to increase
dramaticly over what it has been.

This means Alzheimer's is not a disease but a result of one or more modern
lifestyle changes.

If you can see a error in the seemingly obvious conclusion please point it
out.

Lancet has just stated that Alzheimer's is a product of lifestyle. It
actualy  just published a garbage study with no facts to base it on.

THURSDAY, Dec. 15 (HealthDay News) -- Experts are now predicting that the
global incidence of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia will
soar in the next few decades, especially in developing countries

"Especialy in developing nations" what changes in developing nations?
Lifestyle.

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2005/12/15/hscout529735.
html

NOTE: This is not about living longer due to better medicine as people in
deveopled nations don't live much longer than those in less developed
nations. The USA is not in the top 20 nations for life expectancy

http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa042000b.htm

http://www.aneki.com/expectancy.html
So tired - 01 Jan 2006 22:54 GMT
My appoligies.

The link to the study in the Lancet is

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673605678890/

Scary to think a paper that would get a freshman in college a failing grade
should get such attention.

> To be kind the full study in the Lancet openly states total guess work on
> their numbers for developing nations. Making the study garbage but the
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
> "Especialy in developing nations" what changes in developing nations?
> Lifestyle.

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2005/12/15/hscout529735.
> html
>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> http://www.aneki.com/expectancy.html
 
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