>Uganda has an annual population growth of well over 3% per year (as to the
>US's 1% per year) and yet, this is one of the countries that these dire
>predictions were made about, 20 years ago.
Uganda is making an effort to combat HIV/AIDS. See, e.g., below.
This does not support the notion that HIV does not exist or does not
cause AIDS. The successes are muted by the fact that so many are still
dying, that the numbers of orphans are increasing.
George M. Carter
**
Kamali A, Carpenter LM, Whitworth JA, Pool R, Ruberantwari A, Ojwiya
A. Seven-year trends in HIV-1 infection rates, and changes in sexual
behaviour, among adults in rural Uganda. AIDS. 2000 Mar
10;14(4):427-34.
Medical Research Council Programme on AIDS in Uganda, Uganda Virus
Research Institute, Entebbe.
OBJECTIVE: To assess trends in HIV-1 infection rates and changes in
sexual behaviour over 7 years in rural Uganda. METHODS: An adult
cohort followed through eight medical-serological annual surveys since
1989-1990. All consenting participants gave a blood sample and were
interviewed on sexual behaviour. RESULTS: On average, 65% of residents
gave a blood sample at each round. Overall HIV-1 prevalence declined
from 8.2% at round 1 to 6.9% at round 8 (P = 0.008). Decline was most
evident among men aged 20-24 years (11.7 to 3.6%; P < 0.001) and women
aged 13-19 (4.4% to 1.4%; P = 0.003) and 20-24 (20.9% to 13.8%; P =
0.003). However, prevalence increased significantly among women aged
25-34 (13.1% to 16.6%; P = 0.04). Although overall incidence declined
from 7.7/1000 person-years (PY) in 1990 to 4.6/1000 PY in 1996,
neither this nor the age-sex specific rates changed significantly (P >
0.2). Age-standardized death rates for HIV-negative individuals were
6.5/1000 PY in 1990 and 8.2/1000 PY in 1996; corresponding rates for
HIV-positive individuals were 129.7 and 102.7/1000 PY, respectively.
There were no significant trends in age-adjusted death rates during
follow-up for either group. There was evidence of behaviour change
towards increase in condom use in males and females, marriage at later
age for girls, later sexual debut for boys and a fall in fertility
especially among unmarried teenagers. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first
general population cohort study showing overall long-term significant
reduction in HIV prevalence and parallel evidence of sexual behaviour
change. There are however no significant reductions in either HIV
incidence or mortality.