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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / AIDS / April 2004

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REAPPRAISING AIDS IN AFRICA

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PaulKing - 25 Apr 2004 23:48 GMT
REAPPRAISING AIDS IN AFRICA
UNDER DEVELOPMENT & RACIAL STEREOTYPES

By Charles L. Geshekter

The problem with the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable and often
dull .
-- H.L. Mencken

Millions of Africans have long suffered from severe weight loss, chronic
diarrhea, fever, and persistent coughs. In 1985 Western researchers
suddenly defined this cluster of symptoms as a distinct syndrome, AIDS,
and declared that it was caused by a single virus, HIV, which they
considered to be sexually contagious.(1)

American health officials universally accept this HIV-AIDS model to
explain what used to be considered the diseases of rampant poverty in
Africa. There are at least three reasons why this view needs careful
reconsideration.

First is the fact that many of the Africans who qualify for AIDS diagnoses
-- perhaps as many as 70% -- turn out to be negative when tested for HIV.

Second is the failure of the African HIV-AIDS model to predict the course
of AIDS in the United States. Since AIDS symptoms are widespread in the
general African population,(2) if it transmits heterosexually it should
also become widespread in other general populations, such as Americans, in
which hundreds of thousands of heterosexuals annually contract venereal
diseases. Instead, 16 years after it was first described in the medical
literature, in the United States AIDS has remained rigidly confined to
special risk groups. Of the 70,000 annual American AIDS patients, at least
90% are drug users (including nearly all the gay patients), and fewer than
10,000 are designated as heterosexual cases.

Third, sexual transmission can't explain the differences in rates of HIV
positivity between African (about five per 100) and American (about one
per 7,000) heterosexuals. When the HIV-AIDS paradigm made its debut in
1984, its proponents assumed that HIV was easily transmitted coitally.
Scientists tested this idea only years later, though, when they arrived at
extremely low coital transmission frequencies. The latest study shows that
an HIV-negative woman converts to positive on average only after one
thousand unprotected contacts with a positive man, and a negative man
becomes positive on average only after eight thousand contacts with a
positive woman.(3)

These data suggest two mutually exclusive conclusions. Either HIV isn't a
sexually transmitted microbe after all, and other factors account for HIV
prevalence; or African heterosexuals are wildly more promiscuous than
American heterosexuals, a scenario that surely is not true.

With all of this in mind, why do so many health professionals consider it
useful or necessary to view the diseases of poverty in Africa as sexually
contagious? And why did they ever believe it?

Defining AIDS in Africa

CDC physicians Joseph McCormick and Susan Fisher-Hoch convened the WHO
conference in the Central African Republic in 1985 that produced the
"Bangui Definition" of AIDS in Africa. The CDC had just adopted the
HIV-AIDS model to explain the diseases of American drug injectors, a
cohort of promiscuous urban gays in the party drug scene, and transfusion
recipients. HIV turned out to be one of the many viruses that tended to
react with blood from these patients. The same was true of blood from
Africans afflicted with the diseases of poverty. The HIV-AIDS model
assumed that AIDS would "spread" via HIV to a much larger fraction of
Africans than those who currently suffered from it.

McCormick and Fisher-Hoch accepted this model. They recently explained
their motivation for the conference and the rationale behind the AIDS
definition that resulted from it:
We still had an urgent need to begin to estimate the size of the AIDS
problem in Africa....But we had a peculiar problem with AIDS. Few AIDS
cases in Africa receive any medical care at all. No diagnostic tests,
suited to widespread use, yet existed...In the absence of any of these
markers [e.g., diagnostic T4/T8 white cell tests], we needed a clinical
case definition...a set of guidelines a clinician could follow in order to
decide whether a certain person had AIDS or not. [If we] could get
everyone at the WHO meeting in Bangui to agree on a single, simple
definition of what an AIDS case was in Africa, then, imperfect as the
definition might be, we could actually start to count the cases, and we
would all be counting roughly the same thing. [emphasis added]

The definition was reached by consensus, based mostly on the delegates'
experience in treating AIDS patients. It has proven a useful tool in
determining the extent of the AIDS epidemic in Africa, especially in areas
where no testing is available. Its major components were prolonged fevers
(for a month or more), weight loss of 10 percent or greater, and prolonged
diarrhea.(4)

The doctors wanted to refute the ugly moralism of the 1980s that AIDS was
a "gay plague" by convincing the American government that "AIDS was a
plague all right, but that no one was immune."(5)

McCormick and Fisher-Hoch recalled that:
experts in STDs continued to regale us with tales of the excessive and
often bizarre sexual practices associated with HIV in the West... We were
also beginning to see a direct correlation between the number of sexual
partners and the rate of infection...Compared to the West, heterosexual
contacts in Africa are frequent, and relatively free of social constraints
-- at least for the men.... There was every reason to believe that, having
found heterosexually transmitted AIDS in Kinshasa, we were likely to find
it everywhere else in the world.(6)

It was upon these grossly unscientific claims, inaccurate clinical
generalizations, western notions of sexual morality, and 19th-century
racist stereotypes about Africans that AIDS became a "disease by
definition." Africa was assigned a central role in promoting the premise
that AIDS was everywhere and everyone was at risk. By 1986, "people were
falling over one another to get involved in AIDS research," recalled the
couple. "They realized that AIDS represented an opportunity for grant
money, training, and the possibility of professional advancement... A
certain bandwagon mentality took hold. Careers and reputations were riding
on the outcome."(7)

As proof that these "AIDS symptoms" were sexually transmitted, McCormick
and Fisher-Hoch point to a narrow survey conducted by Kevin DeCock,
another CDC epidemiologist. In 1986, DeCock examined stored blood samples
taken in 1976 (for Ebola virus testing) of 600 residents of the small town
of Yambuku, in northern Zaire. Samples from five patients (0.8%) tested
positive for HIV antibodies.

DeCock wanted to know what happened to those five people during the
intervening ten years. According to McCormick and Fisher-Hoch, "three of
the five [60%] were dead. To determine if their deaths were attributable
to AIDS, Kevin interviewed people who had known them. The friends and
relatives of the deceased described an illness marked by severe weight
loss and other ailments that left little doubt in Kevin's mind that they
had succumbed to AIDS [emphases added]."(8)

DeCock concluded from these interviews that the dead subjects died from
AIDS, and that HIV had caused it. He reached this conclusion without
properly matching the five HIV-positive patients with peers from among the
595 HIV-negative subjects, and without collecting mortality data and
morbidity information about them as well. Had he done this, perhaps he
would have discovered that even HIV-negative Africans die of "severe
weight loss" and other so-called AIDS conditions.

DeCock further noted that antibody tests conducted in 1986 showed that the
HIV prevalence in Yambuku had remained constant at 0.8% during the ten
years since 1976. As far has he was concerned, this meant that HIV -- and
thus AIDS -- really did originate in Africa. HIV (AIDS) existed for years
in small numbers of rural inhabitants (who had contracted the HIV from
primates, he imagined). He speculated that once some of those people in
the late '70s migrated to what DeCock falsely assumed were sex-crazed
cities, an epidemic of HIV and AIDS exploded.

DeCock did not consider that these same data could have been interpreted
as indicating that HIV is a mild virus, and difficult to transmit. Neither
did McCormick and Fisher-Hoch.

The sort of presumptive diagnosis employed by DeCock is known as a "verbal
autopsy." It is widely accepted in Africa, where "no country has a vital
registration system that captures a sufficient number of deaths to provide
meaningful death rates."(9)

While medically certified information is available for less than 30% of
the estimated 51 million deaths that occur each year worldwide, the Global
Burden of Disease Study (GBD) found that sub-Saharan Africa had the
greatest uncertainty for the causes of mortality and morbidity since its
vital registration figures were the lowest of any region in the world -- a
microscopic 1.1% (10)

These findings prompted The Lancet to acknowledge editorially that
"current strategies to improve the world's health may need to be
reassessed" and to ponder "how much more money is spent on research into
HIV infection [the 30th cause of death] than into the causes of suicide
[#12] or the prevention of road-traffic accidents [#9] and why should this
be."(11)

Racism and African Sexuality

Whereas AIDS in the industrialized countries almost exclusively confines
itself to a tiny percentage of homosexuals, drug injectors, and
transfusion patients, AIDS afflicts the same general African population
that faces such ancient scourges as malaria, schistosomiasis, and sleeping
sickness (trypanosomiasis).

This is known as the "heterosexual paradox" of AIDS. Champions of the HIV
model attempt to explain it in two contradictory ways. Some simply declare
that the paradox is temporary. They speculate that HIV arrived first in
Africa and, in time, AIDS will be just as rampant in the West. However,
they've been saying this now for over ten years.

Others recognize the permanence of the paradox. They account for it by
declaring that Africans are just different from Westerners. They are
substantially more promiscuous and more likely to have genital ulcers. How
else to explain the widespread distribution of a virus that requires, for
non-ulcerated genitals, a thousand heterosexual acts?

At the 10th International AIDS Conference in Yokohama (August 1994), Dr.
Yuichi Shiokawa claimed that AIDS would be brought under control only if
Africans restrained their sexual cravings. Professor Nathan Clumeck of the
Universite Libre in Brussels was skeptical that Africans will ever do so.
In an interview with Le Monde , Clumeck claimed that "sex, love, and
disease do not mean the same thing to Africans as they do to West
Europeans [because] the notion of guilt doesn't exist in the same way as
it does in the Judeo Christian culture of the West."(12)

Such racist myths about the sexual excesses of Africans are old indeed.
Early European travelers returned from the continent with tales of black
men performing carnal feats with unbridled athleticism with black women
who were themselves sexually insatiable. These affronts to Victorian
sensibilities were cited, alongside tribal conflicts and other
"uncivilized" behavior, as justification for colonial social control.

AIDS researchers added new twists to an old repertoire: stories of
Zairians who rub monkeys' blood into cuts as an aphrodisiac, of ulcerated
genitals, and of philandering East African truck drivers who get AIDS from
prostitutes and then go home to infect their wives.(13)

A facetious letter in The Lancet even cited a passage from Lili Palmer's
memoirs as evidence for how a large male chimpanzee's "anatomically
unmistakable signs of its passion for [Johnny] Weismuller" on the Tarzan
set in 1946 "may provide an explanation for the inter-species jump" of HIV
infection.(14)

No one has ever shown that people in Rwanda, Uganda, Zaire, and Kenya --
the so-called "AIDS belt" -- are more active sexually than people in
Nigeria, which has reported only 3,002 cumulative AIDS cases out of a
population of 100 million, or Cameroon, which reported only 8,141 cases in
10 million. (15)

No continent-wide sex surveys have ever been carried out in Africa.
Nevertheless, conventional researchers perpetuate racist stereotypes about
insatiable sexual appetites and carnal exotica. They assume that AIDS
cases in Africa are driven by a sexual promiscuity similar to what
produced -- in combination with recreational drugs, sexual stimulants,
venereal disease, and over-use of antibiotics -- the early epidemic of
immunological dysfunction among a small sub-culture of gay men in the
West.(16)

The research from Africa suggests nothing of the sort. In 1991 researchers
from Medicins Sans Frontieres and the Harvard School of Public Health did
a survey of sexual behavior in the Moyo district of northwest Uganda.
Their findings revealed behavior that was generally not very different
from that of the West. On average, women had their first sex at age 17,
men at 19. Eighteen per cent of women and 50% of men reported premarital
sex; 1.6% of the women and 4.1% of the men had casual sex in the month
preceding the study, while 2% of women and 15% of men did so in the
preceding year. (17)

The media misrepresentations that link sexuality to AIDS have spawned
inordinate anxieties and moral panics in regions of Africa already
afflicted with extreme poverty, ravaged by war, and deprived of primary
health care delivery systems. The "disaster voyeurism" of tabloid
journalism enables them to use AIDS to sell "more newspapers than any
other disease in history. It is a sensational disease -- with its elements
of sex, blood and death it has proved irresistible to editors across the
world."(18)

Public health seems to require salesmanship, not skepticism. The media's
appetite for scary scenarios and its disdain for alternative perspectives
enables it to treat Africa in apocalyptic terms. This marketing of anxiety
helps to promote behavior modification programs to "save Africa."
Oblivious to the morbidity and mortality data from the Global Burden of
Disease Study, journalists reflexively maintain that "AIDS is by far the
most serious threat to life in Africa."(19)

The serious consequences of claiming that millions of Africans are
threatened by infectious AIDS makes it politically acceptable to use the
continent as a laboratory for vaccine trials and the distribution of toxic
drugs of disputed effectiveness like ddI and AZT. On the other hand,
campaigns that advocate monogamy or abstinence and ubiquitous media claims
that "safe sex" is the only way to avoid AIDS inadvertently scare Africans
from visiting a public health clinic for fear of receiving a "fatal" AIDS
diagnosis. Even Africans "with treatable medical conditions (such as
tuberculosis) who perceive themselves as having HIV infection fail to seek
medical attention because they think that they have an untreatable
disease."(20)

Some Western scientists, including Dr. Luc Montagnier, the French
virologist who discovered HIV, claim that the practice of female
circumcision facilitates the spread of AIDS.(21)

Yet Djibouti, Somalia, Egypt, and Sudan, where female genital mutilation
is the most widespread, are among the countries with the lowest incidence
of AIDS.

Does the "AIDS epidemic" in Africa portend the future of the developed
world? The scientific establishment certainly thinks so. Biomedical funds
that had been earmarked to fight African malaria, tuberculosis, and
leprosy are now diverted into sex counseling and condom distribution,
while social scientists have shifted their attention to behavior
modification programs and AIDS awareness surveys.

Good Intentions, Bad Science: HIV Tests and Disease

A reappraisal of AIDS in Africa must recognize that HIV tests are
notoriously unreliable among African populations where antibodies against
endemic conventional viruses and microbes cross-react to produce
ludicrously high false-positive results. For instance, a 1994 study on
central Africa reported that the microbes responsible for tuberculosis and
leprosy were so prevalent that over 70% of the HIV-positive test results
there are false.(22)

The study also showed that HIV antibody tests register positive in
HIV-free people whose immune systems are compromised for a wide variety of
reasons, including chronic parasitic infections and anemia brought on by
malaria.

The very low frequency of vaginal transmission of HIV makes it hard to
imagine that heterosexual transmission can be responsible for high rates
of HIV prevalence observed in some regions.(23)

So what is responsible?

Perhaps the tests used to determine HIV infection in Africa overstate the
prevalence. Some HIV tests detect entities believed to be part of HIV
itself, such as certain proteins or genetic sequences. But in Africa HIV
prevalence is determined by testing for antibodies, which are components
of the host immune system, not the virus. The fact that these tests react
with antibodies triggered by ordinary African microbes suggests an
explanation for HIV prevalence in Africa that is more plausible than
sexual transmission. (24)

Even the association of HIV antibody tests with ordinary infections does
not mean that positive results warrant a prognosis of death. Consider an
investigation, reported in The Lancet , of 9,389 Ugandans with unequivocal
HIV antibody test results.(25)

Two years after enrolling in the study, 3% had died, 13% had left the
area, and 84% remained. There had been 198 deaths among the seronegative
people and 89 deaths in the seropositive ones. Medical assessments made
prior to death were available for 64 of the HIV-positive adults. Of these,
five (8%) had AIDS as defined by the WHO clinical case symptoms. The
self-proclaimed "largest prospective study of its kind in sub-Saharan
Africa" had tested nearly 9400 people in Uganda, the so-called epicenter
of AIDS in Africa. Yet of the 64 deaths recorded among those who tested
positive for HIV antibodies, only five were diagnosed as AIDS-induced.

If it is not sexual transmission of HIV, then what causes the widespread
appearance of AIDS symptoms throughout Africa? The evidence strongly
implicates the ordinary, widespread socio-economic conditions that give
rise to AIDS symptoms even among HIV-negative Africans.(26)

In her meticulous 1997 doctoral dissertation, Michelle Cochrane juxtaposed
the central tenets of AIDS orthodoxy against the material record of San
Francisco AIDS patients' charts. She found that public health officials
persistently over-estimated the risk of contracting HIV/AIDS through
sexual activity, "while simultaneously under-estimating the proportion of
the HIV/AIDS caseload that were attributable to intravenous drug use
and/or socio-economic factors which condition access to health care and
prevention services."(27)

Cochrane showed that health officials conspicuously failed to investigate
all risk factors for immunological dysfunction among heterosexual adult
females.In their surveillance studies, it was considered sufficient for a
heterosexual female merely to claim that the source of her infection was
sex with an IV-drug user or another man at risk for HIV/AIDS... A
percentage of the 187 female AIDS cases [out of 24,371 cumulative cases in
San Francisco] attributed to sexual transmission could, with proper
investigation, be attributable to IV-drug use. Epidemiological research in
the United States and Europe has never proven that a female has sexually
transmitted HIV to a man. [Because] heterosexual transmission of HIV from
a male to a female happens with difficulty and very infrequently... all
AIDS surveillance statistics on female AIDS cases have been gathered
without rigorous scrutiny of the woman's risk for disease and with a bias
towards including as many women as possible [emphasis added].(28)

The a priori assumptions that directed AIDS surveillance activities in the
United States subsequently allowed predictions about an exponential spread
of the disease to survive as "common knowledge," despite the lack of
empirical data. These are critical points to consider when reviewing any
epidemiological data on "AIDS" cases in Africa.

For the period 1984-95, the WHO compared estimates of HIV seropositivity
with the actual numbers of AIDS cases in its Weekly Epidemiological
Reports. The cumulative result is that 99.95% of all Africans do not have
AIDS -- including 97% of those who test HIV-positive. These facts
strikingly contradict the popular view of an Africa overrun by fatal HIV
infections.(29)

AIDS and the Medicalization of Poverty

Primary health care systems in Africa will remain hampered until public
health planners systematically gather statistics on morbidity and
mortality to accurately show what causes sickness and death in specific
African countries. During the past ten years, as the external financing of
HIV-based AIDS programs in Africa dramatically increased, money for
studying other health problems remained static, even though deaths from
malaria, tuberculosis, neo-natal tetanus, respiratory diseases, and
diarrhea grew at alarming rates.(30)

While Western health leaders fixate on HIV, 52% of sub-Saharan Africans
lack access to safe water, 62% lack proper sanitation, and an estimated 50
million pre-school children suffer from protein-calorie malnutrition.(31)

Poor harvests, rural poverty, migratory labor systems, urban crowding,
ecological degradation, social mayhem, the collapse of state structures,
and the sadistic violence of civil wars constitute the primary threats to
African lives.(32)

When essential services for water, power, and transport break down, public
sanitation deteriorates, and the risks of cholera, tuberculosis,
dysentery, and respiratory infection increase.

WHO Director General Hiroshi Nakajima warns emphatically that "poverty is
the world's deadliest disease."(33)

Indeed, the leading causes of immunodeficiency and the best predictors for
clinical AIDS symptoms in Africa are impoverished living conditions,
economic deprivation, and protein malnutrition, not extraordinary sexual
behavior or antibodies against HIV, a virus that has proved difficult or
impossible to isolate directly, even from AIDS patients.

The so-called "AIDS epidemic" in Africa has been used to justify the
medicalization of sub-Saharan poverty. Thus, Western medical intervention
takes the form of vaccine trials, drug testing, and almost evangelistic
demands for behavior modification.

AIDS scientists and public health planners should recognize the role of
malnutrition, poor sanitation, anemia, and ordinary infections in
producing clinical AIDS symptoms in the absence of HIV.(34)

The data strongly suggest that socio-economic development, not sexual
restraint, is the key to improving the health of Africans.

Medically trained charity workers Phillipe and Evelyn Krynen, employed by
the French group Partage, in Kagera Province of Tanzania, report that when
"appropriate treatment was given to villagers who became ill with
complaints such as pneumonia and fungal infections that might have
contributed to an AIDS diagnosis, they usually recovered."(35)

A similar observation comes from Father Angelo D'Agostino, a former
surgeon who founded Nyumbani, a hospice for abandoned and orphaned
HIV-positive children in Kenya:
"People think a positive test means no hope, so the children are relegated
to the back wards of hospitals which have no resources and they die. They
are very sick when they come to us. Usually they are depressed, withdrawn,
and silent... But as a result of their care here, they put on weight,
recover from their infections, and thrive. Hygiene is excellent [and]
nutrition is very good; they get vitamin supplements, cod liver oil,
greens every day, plenty of protein. They are really flourishing."(36)

Conclusion

People can be encouraged to behave thoughtfully in their sexual lives if
they are provided with reliable information about condom use,
contraception, family planning, and venereal diseases. Multilateral
institutions and African AIDS educators should familiarize themselves with
the scientific literature that demonstrates the contradictions, anomalies,
and inconsistencies in the HIV/AIDS orthodoxy.(37)

They have a major responsibility to consider the non-contagious
explanations for "AIDS" cases in Africa and to stop the proliferation of
terrifying misinformation that equates sexuality with death. *

References
(1) Gilks CF "What use is a clinical case definition for AIDS in Africa?"
BMJ 303:1189-90, (Nov. 9, 1991).

(2) Bentwich Z, "Immune activation is a dominant factor in the
pathogenesis of African AIDS", Immunology Today 16(4):187-91 (1995).

(3) Padian N "Heterosexual transmission of HIV" Am J Epidem 146[4]:350-7
(Aug. 15, 1997).

(4) McCormick JB, Level 4: Virus Hunters of the CDC (Atlanta: Turner
Publishing, 1996) pp. 188-90.

(5) Ibid ., 176.

(6) Ibid ., 173-74.

(7) Ibid ., 179-80.

(8) Ibid ., 193.

(9) Kitange HM, BMJ 312:216-17(Jan. 27, 1997).

(10) Murray C, The Lancet 349:1269-76 (May 3, 1997).

(11) Editorial, The Lancet 349 (May 3, 1997) 1263.

(12) Jau JY Le Monde section of Manchester Guardian Weekly (Dec. 14,
1993).

(13) Conover T, "Trucking through the AIDS belt, " The New Yorker (Aug.
16, 1993).

(14) Sebastian R, "Did AIDS start in the jungle?", The Lancet 348:1392
(Nov. 16, 1996).

(15) WHO, Weekly Epidemiological Record 71(26):215 (July 1, 1996).

(16) Review of: Rotello G, Sexual Ecology: AIDS and the Destiny of Gay Men
, (New York: Dutton, 1997); Signorile M Life Outside: The Signorile Report
on Gay Men , (New York: Harper Collins, 1997); Kevles D "A Culture of
Risk", New York Times Book Review (May 25, 1997), p8; Sonnabend J, "Fact
and Speculation about the cause of AIDS," AIDS Forum 2(1):2-12; Lauritsen
J, The AIDS War (New York: Asklepios Press, 1993).

(17) Schopper D, Social Science and Medicine 37(3):401-12, (Aug. 1993).

(18) Deane J, SIDAfrique 8/9:29 (1996).

(19) Commentary, The Economist , p38 (Sep. 7, 1996).

(20) Chintu C, The Lancet 349:649 (March 1, 1997).

(21) Bass T, Reinventing the Future (Reading, Massachusetts:
Addison-Wesley, 1994).

(22) Kashala O, J Inf Diseases 169:296-304 (Feb. 1994).

(23) de Vicenza NEJM 331:341-46 (1994); and Mandelbrot L, The Lancet
349:885-89 (March 22, 1997).

(24) Papadopulos-Eleopulos E, Bio/Technology 11:696-707 (June, 1997).

(25) Mulder DW, The Lancet 343:1021-23 (April 23, 1994).

(26) Papadopulos-Eleopulos E, W J Microbiology and Biotechnology 11:141-42
(March 1995).

(27) Cochrane M, "The social construction of knowledge on HIV and AIDS,"
PhD dissertation, Department of Geography, UC-Berkeley (April 1997), p.
7.

(28) Ibid . , pp. 259-60.

(29) WHO, World Health Report 1996 , p130.

(30) WHO, Bridging the Gaps (Geneva: WHO, 1995), Table 5 and Table A3;
WHO, World Health Report 1996, Table 4 and Table A3.

(31) The Lancet , p69 (Jan. 11, 1997).

(32) Murray C, The Global Burden of Disease (Cambridge: Harvard Univ.
Press, 1996).

(33) WHO, The World Health Report 1995 .

(34) Geshekter C, Transition 67:4-14 (Fall 1995); Patton C, Inventing AIDS
(New York: Routledge 1990).

(35) Hodgkinson N in Duesberg P, AIDS: Virus or Drug Induced? (Dordrecht:
Kluwer, 1996), p. 353.

(36) Ibid ., pp. 350-51.

(37) Chirimuuta R, AIDS, Africa, and Racism (London: Free Association
Press 1989); Root-Bernstein R, Rethinking AIDS (New York: Free Press
1993); Duesberg P, Infectious AIDS: Have We Been Misled? (Berkeley: North
Atlantic Books 1996); Brody S, Sex at Risk; Lifetime Number of Partners,
Frequency of Intercourse and the Low AIDS Risk of Vaginal Intercourse ,
(New Brunswick: Transaction Pubs., 1997)
Uiopp - 26 Apr 2004 11:25 GMT
In article
<cc0e0a098eb2034d10a9c6e6e53f14d1@localhost.talkabouthealthnetwork.com>,

[snip]

Why don't you tell us when that article was written.
Jack7 - 26 Apr 2004 17:05 GMT
Deaths from AIDS

The human toll and suffering due to HIV/AIDS is already enormous. HIV/AIDS
is now by far the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa. Since the
beginning of the epidemic over 15 million Africans have died from AIDS.
During 2002 an estimated 2.4 million adults and children died as a result
of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Africa

Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have failed to bring the epidemic
under control. 71% of the world's HIV-positive people live in sub-Saharan
Africa, although this region contains only 11% of the world's population.
There is a significant risk that some countries will be locked in a
vicious cycle, as the number of people falling ill and subsequently dying
from AIDS has a tremendous impact on many parts of African society,
including demographic, household, health sector, educational, workplaces
and economic aspects.

The Impact on the Health Sector

In all affected countries the HIV/AIDS epidemic is bringing additional
pressure to bear on the health sector. As the epidemic matures, the demand
for care for those living with HIV/AIDS rises, as does the toll among
health workers. In sub-Saharan Africa, the annual direct medical costs of
AIDS (excluding antiretroviral therapy) have been estimated at about US$30
per capita, at a time when overall public health spending is less that
US$10 for most African Countries.

Health-care services face different levels of strain, depending on the
number of people who seek services, the nature of their need, and the
capacity to deliver that care.

The Effect on Hospitals

As HIV infection progresses to AIDS, there is an increase in total
hospitalisations. The 2001 Swaziland Human Development Report estimated
that people living with HIV/AIDS occupied half of the beds in some health
care centres in Swaziland. HIV prevalence among hospitalised patients was
almost 33% in one Tanzanian hospital, making HIV infection the major cause
of illness leading to hospitalisation. Without major interventions, the
problem will worsen. The World Bank estimates that the number of hospital
beds needed for AIDS patients could exceed the total number of beds
available in Swaziland by 2004 and in Namibia by 20051.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is also having a negative impact on the overall
quality of care provided in hospitals. A shortage of beds, for example,
means that people tend to be admitted only at the later stages of illness,
reducing their chances of recovery, as some Kenyan hospitals have
discovered. Lengthy hospital stays are being reported in Botswana's
hospitals, along with staff shortages and staff burnout. Also, more time
has to be spent diagnosing cases that are more complex as the epidemic
deepens.

Health Care Workers

At the same time as the demand for health services is expanding, so
more-health care professionals are being affected by HIV/AIDS. For
example, Malawi and Zambia are experiencing a 5-6 fold increase in health
worker illness and death rates. Increased workloads and stress might may
also spur emigration by health professionals.

The antiretroviral programme in Botswana has faced an acute shortage of
trained staff, which has had a significant effect on the programme. There
are not enough trained staff to carry out the health checks required for
enrolment on the programme, and this has contributed to the enrolment and
treatment rates being lower than was first hoped. The problem is
compounded by the fact that over 90% of the doctors are foreign and do not
speak Setswana, the local language. Another problem faced when recruiting
health care staff from abroad is that it takes time for them to become
familiar with the local culture.2

Community/Home-Based Care

The emergence of community-bases care programmes, often organised by
people living with HIV/AIDS, has become one of the outstanding features of
the epidemic. They are also playing a key role in easing the impact.
Although many of these programmes are operated by religious groups or
non-governmental organisations, the effectiveness of the care does depend
on support from formal health, welfare and other social sectors. Also, a
study in South Africa has suggested that while home-based care is not
cheap it is still an affordable option for the care of people with
HIV/AIDS.

The Impact on Households

The toll of HIV/AIDS on households can be very severe. Although no part of
the population is unaffected by HIV, it is often the poorest that are the
most vulnerable to HIV/AIDS and on whom the consequences are most severe.
In many cases, the presence of AIDS means that the household will
dissolve, as parents die and children are sent to relatives for care and
upbringing. A study in Zambia revealed that 65% of households in which the
mother had died had dissolved. But much happens to a family before this
dissolution happens: HIV/AIDS strips the family of assets and
income-earners, further impoverishing the poor.

Household Income

A study in Côte d' Ivoire revealed that income in affected households was
half that of the average household income. This was often the result not
only of the loss of income due to illness among household members, but
also because other members had to divert more time and effort away from
income-generating activities3.

Household Income

A study in three countries, Burkina Faso, Rwanda and Uganda, has
calculated that AIDS will not only reverse efforts to reduce poverty, but
will increase the percentage of people living in extreme poverty (from 45%
in 2000 to 51% in 2015). In Botswana, household income for the poorest
quarter of households is expected to fall by 13%. Income earners in these
households are also expected to take on an average of four more dependants
because of HIV/AIDS.

Basic Necessities

A study in South Africa found that already poor households coping with an
AIDS-sick member were reducing spending on necessities even further. The
most likely expenses to be cut were clothing (21%), electricity (16%) and
other services (9%). Falling incomes forced about 6% of households to
reduce the amount they spent on food and almost half of households
reported having insufficient food at times.4

"She then led me to the kitchen and showed me empty buckets of food and
said they had nothing to eat that day just like other days"4

Food Production

It is estimated that in Burkina Faso, 20% of rural families have reduced
their agricultural work or even abandoned their farms because of AIDS. In
Ethiopia, AIDS-affected households were found to spend 11-16 hours per
week performing agricultural work, compared with an average 33 hours for
non-AIDS affected households.

Illness

Taking care of a person sick with AIDS is not only an emotional strain for
household members, but also a major strain on household resources. Loss of
income, additional care-related expenses, the reduced ability of
caregivers to work, and mounting medical fees and funeral expenses
together push affected households deeper into poverty. According to the
study in Côte d' Ivoire, health care expenses rose by up to 400% when a
family member had AIDS.

Funerals

But the financial burden of death can also be considerable, with some
families in South Africa spending three times the total household monthly
income on a funeral.

How do HIV/AIDS affected Households cope in Africa?

Three main coping strategies appear to be adopted among affected
households. Savings are used up or assets sold; assistance is received
from other households; and the composition of households tends to change,
with fewer adults of prime working age in the households.

Almost invariable, the burden of coping rests on women, as there is an
increased demand for their income-earning labour, household work,
childcare and care of the sick. As men fall ill, women often have to step
into their roles outside the homes. In parts of Zimbabwe, for example,
women are moving into the traditionally male-dominated carpentry-industry.
This often results in women having less time to prepare food and for other
tasks at home.

"I used to stay with the children, but now it is a problem. I have to work
in the fields. Last year I had more money to hire labour so the crops got
weeded more often. This year I had to do it myself."- Angelina,
Zimbabwe-5

Tapping into savings if available and taking on more debt is usually the
first option by households that struggle to pay for medical treatment or
funeral costs. Then as debts mount, precious assets, such as bicycles,
livestock and even land, are sold. Once households are stripped of their
productive assets, the chances of them recovering and rebuilding their
livelihoods become even slimmer.

The number of working adults in a family will often decrease.

"The first problem with this family is that no one is working. There is no
food and no clothes, her mum is not working and there is no father." -
Nosipho, South Africa-6

One of the more unfortunate responses to a death in poorer households is
removing the children (especially girls) from schools. Often the school
uniforms and fees become unaffordable for the families and the child's
labour and income-generating potential are required in the household.

"Her brother is sixteen, he is also not in school, he is looking after
someone else's cattle for little money. The last born girl has been taken
by another pensioner who is not a relative, they see her on holidays."-
Nosipho, South Africa-6

The Impact on Children

It is hard to overemphasise the trauma and hardship that children affected
by HIV/AIDS are forced to bear worldwide. Not only does HIV/AIDS mean
children lose their parents or guardians, but sometimes it means they lose
their childhood as well.7

As parents and family members become ill, children take on more
responsibility to earn an income, produce food and care for family
members. It is harder for these children to access adequate nutrition,
basic health care, housing and clothing. Fewer families have the money to
send their children to school.

Often both of the parents are HIV-positive in Africa. This has resulted
that more children have been orphaned by AIDS in Africa than anywhere
else. Also many children will be part of a generation of to be raised by
their grandparents or left their own in child-headed households. As
projections of the number of AIDS orphans rise, some calls have been heard
for an increase in institutional care for children. This solution is not
only expensive but also detrimental to the children. Institutionalisation
stores up problems for society, which is ill equipped to cope with an
influx of young adults who have not been socialised in the community in
which they have to live. There are other alternatives available. An
example is the approach developed by church groups in Zimbabwe, where they
recruit community members to visit orphans in their homes where they live
either with foster parents, grandparents, other relatives or in
child-headed households.

The way forward is prevention. It is important to prevent children from
becoming infected with HIV at birth and later on in their life. Also,
generally preventing more people from becoming infected with HIV in the
future, and care to prevent people from dying of AIDS is essential. Then
fewer children will be orphaned by HIV/AIDS.

The Impact on Education Sector

The extent to which schools and other education institutions are able to
continue functioning (as part of the essential infrastructure of societies
and communities) will influence how well societies eventually recover from
the epidemic.

Fewer Children will Receive a Basic Education

A decline in school enrolment is one of the most visible effects of the
epidemic. This will in itself have an effect on HIV prevention, as a good
basic education ranks among the most effective and cost-effective means of
preventing HIV.8

"'Without education, AIDS will continue its rampant spread. With AIDS out
of control, education will be out of reach'" - Peter Piot, Director of
UNAIDS9

This reduction in the number of children attending school, will have a
significant impact on the ability of many countries to achieve the
Education For All targets.10

Why are Fewer Children Attending School in Africa?

Contributing factors include:

The removal of children from school to care for parents and family members

An inability to afford school fees and other expenses
AIDS-related infertility and a decline in birth rate, leading to fewer
children
More children are themselves infected and either do not live long enough
to start school or do not survive the years of schooling.
For example, research in South Africa showed that the number of pupils
enrolling in the first year of primary school in 2001 in parts of
KwaZulu-Natal Province, was 20% lower than in 1998. In the Central African
Republic and Swaziland, school enrolment is reported to have fallen by
20-36% due to AIDS and orphanhood, with girls being most affected.

"If there is a shortage of money the girl child stays behind and the boy
child goes to school. Even if a girl is more intelligent."11

The Impact on Teachers

HIV/AIDS does not only affect pupils but teachers as well. A study in
Zimbabwe found that 19% of male teachers and almost 29% of female teachers
were infected with HIV. In 2004, it is estimated that 17% of Mozambique's
teachers are HIV-positive. This is considerably higher than the national
average of 13% HIV prevalence among people aged 15 and 49. It is believed
that this will lead to the death of 1.6% per year of the country's
teachers.12

Teacher absenteeism is increased by HIV/AIDS as the illness itself causes
increasing periods of absence from class. Teachers with sick families also
take time off to attend funerals or to care for sick or dying relatives
and teacher absenteeism also results from the psychological effect of the
epidemic.13

When a teacher falls ill, the class may be taken on by another teacher,
may be combined with another class or left untaught. But even when there
is a sufficient supply of teachers to replace losses, there can be a
significant impact on the students.

"Some of the schools have lost teachers due to this disease. Eventually
after a year or two they are replaced with another teacher. But they are
not the same as the ones who have died. They cannot teach or do the work
as well as the one affected by AIDS. And also the learners, the learners
used to know their teachers very well." - School principal, Namibia- 14

The illness or death of teachers is especially devastating in rural areas
where schools depend heavily on one or two teachers. Moreover, skilled
teachers are not easily replaced. Swaziland has estimated that it will
have to train 13,000 teachers over the next 17 years, just to keep
services at their 1997 levels - 7000 more than it would have to train if
there where no AIDS deaths.

The Impact on Enterprises and Workplaces

HIV/AIDS dramatically affects labour, setting back economic activity and
social progress. The vast majority of people living with HIV/AIDS in
Africa are between the ages of 15 and 49 - in the prime of their working
lives.

AIDS weakens economic activity by squeezing productivity, adding costs,
diverting productive resources, and depleting skills. Also, as the impact
of HIV/AIDS on households grows more severe, market demand for products
and services can fall. The epidemic hits productivity through increased
absenteeism. Comparative studies of East African businesses have shown
that absenteeism can account for as much as 25-54% of company costs.

A study in several southern African countries has estimated that the
combined impact of AIDS-related absenteeism, productivity declines,
health-care expenditures, and recruitment and training expenses could cut
profits by at least 6-8%. NamWater, Namibia's largest water purification
company, has reported that HIV/AIDS was hindering its operation as
absenteeism rose and productivity dropped. A study of a sugar mill in
South Africa put the cost per worker per year at R9,500 (about £800). Of
this, the cost of replacement workers, lost productivity, and absenteeism
account for about a quarter each.15

Company costs for health-care, funeral benefits and pension fund
commitments are likely to rise unexpectedly as early retirement and deaths
rise. A study of a commercial agricultural estate in Kenya showed that
AIDS-related medical expenditure exceeded projected expenses by 400%.
Funeral costs are also provided by a number of employers in Africa and
they are rising sharply.

As HIV/AIDS related costs have risen, so more and more employers have set
up HIV/AIDS related programmes at their workplaces. These programmes work
more effectively when they also consider the wider realities of the
workers' lives. An example is the gold-mining districts in South Africa.
The gold mines attract thousands of workers, often from poor and remote
regions. Most live in hostels, separated from their families and as a
result a thriving sex industry operates around many mines and high HIV
prevalence is common. In recent years, mining companies have been working
with a number of organisations to implement prevention programmes for the
miners. These have included mass distribution of condoms, medical care and
treatment for sexually transmitted diseases and awareness campaigns.
However, work and social conditions make it difficult to achieve and
sustain reductions in HIV and other sexually transmitted infection
levels.

In Swaziland, an employers' anti-AIDS coalition has been set up to promote
voluntary counselling and testing. The coalition not only includes larger
companies but also small and -medium -size enterprises. In Botswana, the
Debswana diamond company offers all employees HIV testing, and if they are
HIV positive, they and their spouses are offered HIV antiretroviral
drugs.16 This policy was introduced in 1999 when the company found that
many of their work force were HIV positive. With a skilled workforce, it
is financially worth their while to protect the health and therefore the
productivity of their workers. They also discovered that retirements due
to ill health and AIDS-related deaths had risen markedly. In 1996, 40% of
retirements and 37.5% of deaths were due to HIV/AIDS. By 1999, the
proportion had risen to 75% and 59% respectively.16

The Impact on Life Expectancy

In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, AIDS is erasing decades of
progress in extending life expectancy. Life expectancy reflects the
conditions in a community, but also life expectancy affects conditions in
the community. Average life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa is now 47
years, when it would have been 62 years without AIDS. Life expectancy at
birth in Botswana has dropped to a level not seen in Botswana since before
1950. In less than ten years time, many countries in Southern Africa will
see life expectancies fall to near 30, levels not seen since the end of
the 19th Century.17

Average life expectancy in 11 African Countries (age in years)

Country Before AIDS 2010
Angola      41.3    35.0
Botswana    74.4    26.7
Lesotho     67.2    36.5
Malawi      69.4    36.9
Mozambique  42.5    27.1
Namiba      68.8    33.8
Rwanda      54.7    38.7
South Africa 68.5   36.5
Swaziland   74.6    33.0
Zambia      68.6    34.4
Zimbabwe    71.4    34.6

By 2010, the populations of five countries - Botswana, Mozambique,
Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa will have started to shrink because of
the number of people dying from AIDS. In two more countries, Zimbabwe and
Namibia, the population growth rate will have slowed almost to zero.
Alex - 26 Apr 2004 17:55 GMT
> Deaths from AIDS
>
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> During 2002 an estimated 2.4 million adults and children died as a result
> of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.

They can't even tell exactly how many people died, let alone died of
AIDS, in South Africa. Now you're going to tell me you have the
number for all of Africa.

The writer forgot to mention that these are all projections. And projections
that are based on assumptions about the wide spread of AIDS.

The same with "life expectancy".

> The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Africa
>
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
> for care for those living with HIV/AIDS rises, as does the toll among
> health workers.

And of course teachers. But wait a minute, it doesn't.

" http://www2.ncsu.edu/ncsu/aern/suxrep.html

It is widely asserted that teachers are a high-risk behaviour group and
that therefore HIV prevalence among the teaching profession is higher
than the adult population. No supporting evidence for this assertion is
found in the three country studies or any other country in SSA. Teacher
mortality in Botswana, for example, was less than half than that projected
for the overall adult population in the late 1990s. Mortality rates vary
also widely among teachers according to type of school (primary and
secondary), gender, location and marital status. In general, mortality
rates are much higher among primary school teachers and male teachers.
More research is urgently needed to establish the key factors underlying
what appear to be very large mortality rate differentials among different
groups of teachers.

" Trends in mortality rates have also been investigated. In Uganda,
mortality for both primary and secondary school teachers peaked at
less than one percent during 1995-97. Probably around half of this
mortality was AIDS-related. Both in absolute terms and in relation
to high rates of attrition from other causes (resignations, retirements,
etc), this level of mortality has not posed a serious threat to the
development of the education sector in Uganda. Primary school
enrolments expanded over threefold with the introduction of UPE
in 1994 and there is currently an excess supply of secondary teachers.
The overall mortality rate among teachers in Botswana was around
0.8 percent in 1999/2000.  "

In other words, teacher mortality in Uganda and Botswana are
well under 1%.

I'm sorry, but this is all bullshit. These are all estimations and
projections, based on false assumptions. Not actual counts,
like the above account of teachers, or the national censuses
in South Africa, Botswana, etc.

The truth is that instead of dying of AIDS, African populations
are booming with the highest population growth in the world.

Dying of the new plague, and having a booming population
are mutually exclusive.

Alex
abinkum@yahoo.com - 27 Apr 2004 00:55 GMT
Thanks to the current media debate between Rian Malan and the TAC in
South Africa (see my previous post "Aids in AFrica, true or false?"),
it has become very clear how meaningless are the computer-modelled
figures from scant data in AFrica, upon which all of your brash and
unreferenced establishment claims are based.
Please provide sources for you information in future, if you want your
input to have any credibility.
 
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