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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / AIDS / June 2007

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How do you turn 200,000 into 1.6 million?

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Martin - 26 Jun 2007 12:29 GMT
How do you turn 200,000 into 1.6 million?  Here's some clever HIV/AIDS
maths for you.  Pay attention!

<http://www.namibian.com.na/2007/June/national/079F47CA9A.html>:

"AN ESTIMATED 800 000 Namibians are affected by HIV-AIDS - a situation
that calls for urgent action - but it doesn't seem to be regarded as a
national emergency, an expert on the pandemic said yesterday.

'According to UNAIDS, between 200 000 and 250 000 Namibians are HIV
infected.

If that is so, since sufficient data are not available, each infected
person would have at least three people affected by this condition,
being family, so we can reckon that approximately 800 000 citizens are
infected and affected by this disease,' according to Professor Nanas,
leader of a team of foreign experts currently doing a review of
Namibia's national HIV-AIDS intervention activities.

'If you include the medical staff at clinics dealing with the quarter
of a million HIV-infected people, the church and civil society
councillors and volunteers, you come to the figure of some 1,6 million
people of Namibia's population of two million being affected,' Poku
said.

'That is about three-quarters of the entire population.'"

And it appears the figures are based on the discredited practice of
testing pregnant women.  And as all these figures are produced by
UNAIDS they're probably wrong, anyway.

"In Namibia, the only available HIV-prevalence statistics are based on
a bi-annual sentinel survey, where only pregnant women coming to
clinics for pre-natal care are tested for HIV-AIDS.

According to the 2006 survey, the prevalence rate is 19,7 per cent."
Signature

<http://www.hiv-poz.co.uk/>
Moible: +447939991519

Death - 26 Jun 2007 21:30 GMT
"Martin" <martin@hiv-poz.co.uk> wrote in message

> "AN ESTIMATED 800 000 Namibians are affected by HIV-AIDS - a situation
> that calls for urgent action - but it doesn't seem to be regarded as a
> national emergency, an expert on the pandemic said yesterday.

An expert huh?

A look a year ago

Tuesday, 21 November 2006

HIV epidemic 'is getting worse'

Sub-Saharan Africa still sees the most cases of HIV/Aids
Sub-Saharan Africa is still bearing the brunt of the HIV/Aids epidemic, a UNAids report has
revealed.
Almost three-quarters of deaths from Aids in 2006 occurred there and two-thirds of those living
with HIV are in that area.

UNAids says there are an estimated 39.5 million people now living with HIV.

The number living with the virus has increased everywhere, with the most striking increases in
East Asia and Central Asia/Eastern Europe.

 It is imperative that we continue to increase investment in both HIV prevention and treatment
services to reduce unnecessary deaths and illness from this disease

Dr Anders Nordström
World Health Organization

HIV/Aids around the world

Some countries, such as Uganda, are seeing a resurgence in new HIV infection rates which were
previously stable or declining.

The report, which is based on disease surveillance around the world, says there were an
estimated 4.3 million new HIV infections this year, with 2.8 million of these occurring in
sub-Saharan Africa.

Forty per cent of new infections were in people aged 15 to 24-years-old.

In 2006, 2.9 million died of Aids-related illnesses.

The report says: "The future course of the world's HIV epidemics hinges in many respects on the
behaviours young people adopt and maintain, and the factors that affect those choices."

Women at risk

In Eastern Europe/Central Asia there was a 70% increase in the number of new infections seen in
2006 compared with 2004 - 270,000 compared with 160,000.

In South-East Asia, the number of new infections rose by 15% from 2004 to 2006.

The increase is fuelled by high-risk behaviour such as injecting drug use, unprotected paid-for
sex and unprotected sex between men.

Across the world, women are more likely to be affected by HIV than ever before, the report
reveals.

In sub-Saharan Africa, there are around 14 women living with HIV for every 10 men.

UNAids also says the HIV epidemics in Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland are continuing to
grow.

Vulnerable

Zimbabwe is the only southern African country where the prevalence of HIV among adults is
falling.

Dr Peter Piot, UNAids executive director, warned it was vital to sustain HIV prevention
efforts, and to ensure they were adapted where necessary to target the most vulnerable.

He said "We need to greatly intensify life-saving prevention efforts while we expand HIV
treatment programmes."

In some countries, even limited resources have shown benefit when correctly targeted.

For example, China has had success in reducing HIV rates among sex workers, and injecting drug
users, and in Portugal HIV diagnoses among drug injectors fell by almost a third between 2001
and 2005 following the implementation of special prevention programmes.

However, the report warns that in many countries prevention programmes are not reaching the
people most at risk.

Dr Anders Nordström, acting director-general of the World Health Organization, said: "It is
imperative that we continue to increase investment in both HIV prevention and treatment
services to reduce unnecessary deaths and illness from this disease."

Deborah Jack, chief executive of the UK National Aids Trust said: "Sadly many countries,
including the UK, are not sustaining HIV prevention programmes and are seeing rises in new
infections. If resource poor countries are able to reduce their HIV rates there are clearly
lessons to be learnt."

Hilary Benn, the International Development Secretary, said: "While most countries now recognise
the existence of Aids, too many countries ignore the reality.

"The report shows clearly that HIV prevention must be targeted at the people most at risk of
infection - young people, women and young girls, men who have sex with men, commercial sex
workers and injecting drug users.

"This is not a time for embarrassment, this is about telling it straight because it is about
saving people¿s lives."

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