Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / AIDS / August 2006
Statistics
|
|
Thread rating:  |
Robin - 02 Jul 2006 00:58 GMT Does anyone know what percentage of the US population is infected with the HIV virus?
drpsduke@yahoo.com - 07 Jul 2006 00:23 GMT > Does anyone know what percentage of the US population is infected with > the HIV virus? No. HIV infection is not a "reportable condition" in many states of the USA. Also, even if it were reportable, nobody is mandating that all citizens be tested, to get an accurate accounting.
A few random samplings have been done, but for the most part, data on numbers of infections is highly speculative, and based on non-random sampling, such as testing pregnant women who have be definition had unprotected sex.
HIV des not discriminate, but humans do. Humans do not have sex, or share dirty needles for injecting drugs, at random. They tend to have sex and share needles with close friends, most often of the same race and socio-economic status. Thus some subgroups of citizens are at much higher risk of infection than others.
river - 07 Jul 2006 10:41 GMT that is not true everyone is in danger of being infected of the disease it is their actions rather than people belonging to a group who catch HIV.
Alex - 29 Jul 2006 00:11 GMT > Does anyone know what percentage of the US population is infected with > the HIV virus? Depends on how you define 'know'.
However, there is an assumption by UNAIDS that there are:
Number of Americans: 298 million PLWHIV/AIDS: 1.2 million
So that would be ( [1.2/298] x 100 =) 0.4% of the population.
(Source: http://www.unaids.org/en/Regions_Countries/Countries/united_states_of_america.asp )
But this is odd.
People with HIV/AIDS aged 15-49 in the USA: 1,200,000 AIDS deaths in 2003: 16,000
Is that even possible? How can there be over a million people with HIV/AIDS, but only 16,000 AIDS deaths in one given year???
(Source: http://www.hivinsite.com/global?page=cr07-us-00 )
drpsduke@yahoo.com - 15 Aug 2006 23:20 GMT > But this is odd. > [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > (Source: http://www.hivinsite.com/global?page=cr07-us-00 ) The same way there can be 15 million people driving cars and only a few thousand deaths from automobile accidents. Not everyone who drives a car dies in a car wreck, some die from cancer and other cuases. Likewise, with the tratments now available to most USA citizens, HIV infection is no longer rapidly deadly, most HIV-infected people are now living more than 20 years.
Alex - 17 Aug 2006 02:38 GMT > > But this is odd. > > [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > infection is no longer rapidly deadly, most HIV-infected people are now > living more than 20 years. Hmmm... bad analogy. Not everyone driving a car is expected to die within 10 years.
Let's say there are 5 million people with HIV.
You would expect all of them to die within 10 years.
If they were evenly spread out, that would be 5mn / 10 years = 500,000 per year. And that would be without new cases. More or fewer at the beginning of the 10 years than at the end of the 10 years, but that would be the average the numbers would move around.
So for the US, with 1.2 million people living with HIV/AIDS, that would be around 120,000 per year. Not 16,000.
I mean the discrepancy is significant.
Alex
Chris Noble - 17 Aug 2006 07:55 GMT > > > But this is odd. > > > [quoted text clipped - 32 lines] > > Alex The median time from infection to AIDS is around 10-12 years without treatment. Then you have the time from daignosis of AIDS to death. HAART has dramatically extended this period. The effect of HAART has both increased the number of people living with AIDS (and HIV) and decreased the number of AIDS deaths.
In addition pandemic has not reached a steady state so your average solution (which is wrong already) would not be valid. You need to know when the 1.2 million were infected.
The errors in your assumptions and maths is significant.
Chris Noble
Alex - 19 Aug 2006 05:43 GMT > > Let's say there are 5 million people with HIV. > > [quoted text clipped - 14 lines] > The median time from infection to AIDS is around 10-12 years without > treatment. ( This article states that the onset of AIDS in people 25-34 is 9.8 years, and for people over 65, 5 years.http://www.natap.org/2002/feb/020802_1.htm )
(Survival time in Australia in 2001, 45 months http://www.avert.org/ausstatg.htm )
Let's be generous, and presume time from infection to AIDS is 12 years, and survival time after AIDS is 45 months (3.75 year), for a total of 15.75 years.
That is 5mn / 15.75 years = 317,460 deaths per year. Again, not 16,000.
> Then you have the time from daignosis of AIDS to death. > HAART has dramatically extended this period. The effect of HAART has [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > > Chris Noble No they're not.
317,000 is not 16,000.
Alex
GMCarter - 19 Aug 2006 13:07 GMT snip
>> The median time from infection to AIDS is around 10-12 years without >> treatment. > >( This article states that the onset of AIDS in people 25-34 is 9.8 years, >and for people over 65, 5 years.http://www.natap.org/2002/feb/020802_1.htm ) Possibly so.
>(Survival time in Australia in 2001, 45 months >http://www.avert.org/ausstatg.htm ) Where does it say that? I do not see this on the above-referenced URL. And what EXACTLY is this figure referring to?
>Let's be generous, and presume time from infection to AIDS is 12 >years, and survival time after AIDS is 45 months (3.75 year), for a >total of 15.75 years. That's where people have access to antiretroviral therapy. People with AIDS and no ARV don't live that long.
>That is 5mn / 15.75 years = 317,460 deaths per year. Again, not 16,000. You know, at this point, I'm not going to waste more time arguing with your bullshit use of statistics. You're a complete f.cking idiot, Alex.
George M. Carter
Alex - 19 Aug 2006 16:50 GMT In fact, even if time from infection to death was 20 years (and it isn't), and there are 1.2 million people with hiv/aids in the US,
1.2mn / 20 years = 60,000 deaths on average, per year.
Again, this is still nowhere the 16,000 US deaths claimed by the CDC.
Alex
Death - 19 Aug 2006 19:33 GMT "Alex" <avdeelen.REMOFETHIS1@wanadoo.nl> wrote in message
> Again, this is still nowhere the 16,000 US deaths claimed by the CDC. Not all states report to the CDC on aids numbers. The deaths are not all reported as aids. There is a long list of deaths by aids but referred to as other causes ``````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` The virus causing AIDS enters the blood and quickly penetrates certain white cells (called `CD4' cells or "T4 cells") in the body. As we saw in the last chapter, they program the white cells after which there is often little or no trace of the virus at all. This situation usually lasts for six to twelve weeks. During this time the person is free of symptoms and antibody tests are negative.
First signs of illness
The first thing that happens after infection is that many people develop a flu-like illness. This may be severe enough to look like glandular fever with swollen glands in the neck and armpits, tiredness, fever and night sweats. Some of those white cells are dying, virus is being released, and for the first time the body is working hard to make correct antibodies. At this stage the blood test will usually become positive as it picks up the tell-tale antibodies. This process of converting the blood from negative to positive is called `sero-conversion'. Most people do not realise what is happening, although when they later develop AIDS they look back and remember it clearly. Most people have produced antibodies in about twelve weeks.
Latent infection
Then everything settles down. The person now has a positive test, and feels completely well. The virus often seems to disappear completely from the blood again. However, during this latent phase, HIV can be found in large quantities in lymph nodes, spleen, adenoid glands and tonsils. We do not know how many people will go on to the next stage. As we saw in an earlier chapter, at first doctors thought it might only be one in ten, then two or three out of ten. Now it looks as though at least nine out of ten will develop further problems.
San Francisco studies show that in developed countries, without use of the latest therapies, 50% with HIV develop AIDS in ten years, 70% in fourteen years. Of those with AIDS, 94% are dead in five years. The rate of progression can be much faster in those with weakened immunity from other causes---drug users or those in developing countries, for example. It can be far slower in those on various treatments.
Most scientists and doctors are convinced that if we follow up infected people for long enough---maybe for twenty years or more---then all or nearly all will die of AIDS, unless they have died of something else in the meantime such as a heart attack or cancer. How long can someone live before some infection triggers production of more virus and death of more white cells?
The next stage begins when the immune system starts to break down. This is often preceded by subtle mutations in the virus, during which it becomes more aggressive in damaging white cells. Several glands in the neck and armpits may swell and remain swollen for more than three months without any explanation. This is known as persistent generalised lymphadenopathy (PGL).
Early disease progression
As the disease progresses, the person develops other conditions related to AIDS. A simple boil or warts may spread all over the body. The mouth may become infected by thrush (thick white coating), or may develop some other problem. Dentists are often the first to be in a position to make the diagnosis. People may develop severe shingles (painful blisters in a band of red skin), or herpes. They may feel overwhelmingly tired all the time, have high temperatures, drenching night sweats, lose more than 10% of their body weight, and have diarrhoea lasting more than a month. No other cause is found and a blood test will usually be positive. Some used to call this stage ARC, or AIDS related complex.
You can easily panic reading a list of symptoms like this because all of us tend to read about diseases and think instantly we've got them. Chronic diarrhoea does not mean you have AIDS. Nor do weight loss, high temperatures, tiredness and swollen glands. These things can be particularly common in many developing countries.
At the moment in many countries there is an epidemic of viral illnesses which cause fevers, tiredness, rashes and other symptoms that last a long time, always go away completely, and have nothing to do with AIDS. See your doctor or go to a clinic for sexually-transmitted diseases (STD) or genito-urinary medicine (GUM) if you are unsure.
Late HIV illness---AIDS
The final stage is AIDS. Most of the immune system is intact and the body can deal with most infections, but one or two more unusual infections become almost impossible for the body to get rid of without medical help---usually intensive antibiotics.
These infections can be a nightmare for doctors and patients. The desperate struggle is to find the new germ, identify it, and give the right drug in huge doses to kill it. The germ may be hiding deep in a lung requiring a tube (bronchoscope) to be put down the windpipe into the lung to get a sample. The person is sedated for this. It may be hiding in the fluid covering the brain and spinal cord, requiring a needle to be put into the spine (lumbar puncture). It may be hiding in the brain itself. It may hide in the liver or gall-bladder or bowel. It can hide anywhere.
Chest infections are common
The most common infection is a chest infection. A twenty-three-year-old man walks into his doctor's office with a chest infection not responding to antibiotics. He is flushed and has a high temperature. He has been increasingly short of breath with a dry cough for several weeks. He becomes breathless and has an emergency chest X-ray. The X-ray is strange. No one has seen anything like it before. Could this be AIDS? Samples are taken from the lung. The man is rushed to intensive care and is too ill to ask if he would agree to a blood test. Within two days he is dead. A strange germ is found in his lung: pneumocystis carinii. This is incredibly rare except in AIDS.
He may or may not be reported as a statistic to the centre collecting information on AIDS. This is voluntary and doctors are busy. If he had died a day or two earlier, the cause of death would have been thought to be pneumonia. Yet another silent victim, unnoticed and unrecorded. Our statistics may be incomplete, and remember, no test was done for HIV.
He was unlucky. Average life expectancy if you develop your first pneumocystis pneumonia is just over two years. 78% survive the first episode, only 40% survive the second. You could live for over three years, or you might be dead in three months. Each new chest infection could be your last. Often people seem only an hour or two from death, then pull around, recover completely, and go home for several months until the next crisis.
We know that eighty-five out of a hundred people with these chest infections in Western nations are infected with pneumocystis carinii, but many are infected with several things at once. Worldwide, the commonest HIV-related chest infection is tuberculosis. As HIV spreads, TB is on the increase, with possibly a million extra cases a year at present as a result of HIV. Latent TB infection is common in the general population. HIV damage to CD4 white cells allows reactivation, rapid deterioration and death.
Damage to nervous system
Half of the people with AIDS will develop signs of brain impairment or nerve damage during their illness. In one person out of ten it is the first symptom. HIV itself seems to attack, damage and destroy brain cells of the majority of people with AIDS who survive long enough. The virus is probably carried into the brain by special white cells called macrophages, which then produce more virus there. Brain cells have a texture on their surfaces similar to CD4 white cells which enables the virus to latch on and enter.
The damage happens gradually and often is not noticed until a significant part of the brain has been destroyed: a brain scan shows a shrunken appearance with enlarged cavities. The signs can be threefold: difficulties in thinking, difficulties in co-ordinating balance and moving, and changes in behaviour. Sometimes the problems are caused by other infections spreading throughout the body, or by tumours, all brought on by AIDS.
Brain damage affects children as well. In one study, sixteen out of twenty-one children with AIDS developed progressive brain destruction (encephalopathy). But any part of the nervous system can be damaged in adults or children, not just the brain, and AIDS can mimic just about any other disease of nerves.
The 1993 AIDS Surveillance Case Definition of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention A diagnosis of AIDS is made whenever a person is HIV-positive and: he or she has a CD4+ cell count below 200 cells per microliter OR his or her CD4+ cells account for fewer than 14 percent of all lymphocytes OR that person has been diagnosed with one or more of the AIDS-defining illnesses listed below.
AIDS-Defining Illnesses Candidiasis of bronchi, trachea, or lungs (see Fungal Infections) Candidiasis, esophageal (see Fungal Infections) Cervical cancer, invasive? Coccidioidomycosis, disseminated (see Fungal Infections) Cryptococcosis, extrapulmonary (see Fungal Infections) Cryptosporidiosis, chronic intestinal (>1 month duration) (see Enteric Diseases) Cytomegalovirus disease (other than liver, spleen, or lymph nodes) Cytomegalovirus retinitis (with loss of vision) Encephalopathy, HIV-related? (see Dementia) Herpes simplex: chronic ulcer(s) (>1 month duration) or bronchitis, pneumonitis, or esophagitis Histoplasmosis, disseminated (see Fungal Infections) Isosporiasis, chronic intestinal (>1 month duration) (see Enteric Diseases) Kaposi's sarcoma Lymphoma, Burkitt's Lymphoma, immunoblastic Lymphoma, primary, of brain (primary central nervous system lymphoma) Mycobacterium avium complex or disease caused by M. Kansasii, disseminated Disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, any site (pulmonary? or extrapulmonary?) (see Tuberculosis) Disease caused by Mycobacterium, other species or unidentified species, disseminated Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia Pneumonia, recurrent(see Bacterial Infections) Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy Salmonella septicemia, recurrent (see Bacterial Infections) Toxoplasmosis of brain (encephalitis) Wasting syndrome caused by HIV infection
Additional Illnesses That Are AIDS-Defining in Children, But Not Adults Multiple, recurrent bacterial infections? (see Bacterial Infections) Lymphoid interstitial pneumonia/pulmonary lymphoid hyperplasia
Children with HIV
Worldwide, over 3 million children have HIV infection and half a million die every year. Altogether, 83% of children with HIV will show some kind of abnormality in their white cells, or will have symptoms, by the time they are six months old. Problems seen can include large lymph nodes, enlarged liver and spleen, failure to thrive (small for age), small head, ear infections, chest infections, unexplained fever, encephalopathy (brain deterioration).
Of those showing symptoms within the first year of life, half die before the age of three. However, with improved treatments children are surviving longer. A common pattern is beginning to emerge of a child who becomes unwell in the first year or two of life with different chronic or acute infections, yet with treatment carries on for many years, possibly even into adolescence with many ups and downs. Pain and other symptoms are often overlooked in these children.
Blood tests are often confused by the presence after birth of the mother's own antibodies.
All babies of infected mothers will test positive for around the first year, whether infected or not. Most babies who test positive at birth turn out to be uninfected. The greatest risk to the baby is the birth process itself and breast milk. Dramatic reductions in infection rates can be made if the mother is given anti-viral medication before and immediately after birth. This is one of the most appropriate occasions to use anti-viral drugs in the poorest nations. But it should always be done under strict medical supervision.
There is a very slight risk that children who later test negative may still carry HIV. If first infected in the womb, the child may regard HIV as part of itself and not react to it. We are still in the early stages of learning about HIV in children.
Skin rashes and growths
The majority of people with AIDS develop skin problems which are usually an exaggeration of things common to most people, such as acne and rashes of various kinds. Cold sores and genital herpes may develop, or warts. Athlete's foot in severe forms, ringworm and thrush are common. Rashes due to food allergy are also common---no one knows why. Hair frequently falls out. Drug rashes frequently occur, often due to life-saving co-trimoxazole used for treatment or prevention of the pneumocystis carinii pneumonia.
Kaposi's sarcoma develops in up to a quarter of the people with AIDS (depending on the country and route of infection). This produces blue or red hard painless patches on the skin, often on the face. In the majority of these people it is the first sign of AIDS. Tumours can spread to lymph nodes, gut lining and lungs where they can be confused with pneumocystis pneumonia. The growths may be caused by a second virus that is allowed to grow more easily if you have AIDS. Treatment consists mainly of radiotherapy and chemotherapy, including injections of the lesions.
Because it often affects the face or may be visible elsewhere on the body and is so distinctive, people who develop Kaposi's sarcoma often feel especially vulnerable. In fact people usually live longer if they first develop this tumour than if they first develop a pneumonia. Kaposi's sarcoma is less common in drug users with AIDS, presumably because it is caused by a second virus also found in , which is then activated by HIV.
The other common cancer is a tumour (lymphoma) which develops in the brain or elsewhere in the body.
Problems in gut, eyes and other organs
Almost all people with AIDS have stomach problems from strange infections and cancers caused by AIDS and HIV attacking the gut directly. All three cause food to be poorly digested resulting in diarrhoea and weight loss. Stool samples can be examined or samples can be taken from within the gut using special tubing (endoscopy) to see if there is a second treatable infection in addition to HIV.
AIDS can also seriously affect sight in up to a quarter of all those with HIV by allowing an infection of the back of the eye (retinitis). This is usually caused by cytomegalovirus and is sometimes amenable to treatment. In addition, the virus can cause damage to other organs of the body such as the heart.
Changing disease pattern in adults
In different parts of the world, AIDS tends to have its own characteristics. This may be due to the pattern of other illnesses present in different communities, which explains why TB is the commonest cause of death from AIDS in Africa and Asia. Different patterns may be related to different co-factors ( compared to drug injectors, for example), viral differences or possibly genetic differences.
However, patterns are changing. For example, the incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma is falling among with HIV in a number of countries, while it is rising among drug users. Some of these changed patterns are because of altered treatments; others are due to other factors.
As survival times have increased, other problems have emerged which are far more difficult to treat. These include blindness due to cytomegalovirus, progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy (weakness, muscle wasting, difficulty thinking), cryptosporidiosis (causes various infections), mycobacterium infections and cryptococcal meningitis.
In addition, as we have seen, advanced Kaposi's sarcoma can bring its own problems, with lung involvement causing shortness of breath and triggering chest infections, gut involvement causing obstruction or sudden bleeding, and with blockage of lymphatic drainage causing swollen limbs or face, skin ulceration and infection.
In a quarter of those dying with AIDS, the exact cause of death may be difficult to establish, with profound weakness, loss of weight and multi-system failure. Many infections can be chronic, low grade and difficult to diagnose, and when diagnosed can be hard to treat. Indeed, post-mortem examinations show that half of all HIV-related diseases found at autopsy have not been diagnosed during life.
In the early days in many countries, those with AIDS often spent a long time in hospital as doctors battled to get to grips with the complex spectrum of illnesses. Now people with AIDS are usually able to spend more time at home, with many treatments given in clinics or in the home. However, many have multiple problems and need practical help, backed by nursing care and symptom control, to stay at home in comfort and in control of their own lives. Later on in this book we will look at the practicalities of setting up community care programmes.
Many people who are ill are now opting not to have every symptom investigated, when the price is valuable time spent in hospital, unpleasant tests, and treatments that may have side effects.
AIDS diagnosis in developing nations
In developing countries it can be hard to make an accurate diagnosis of AIDS because of the lack of HIV testing facilities. The World Health Organisation proposed a clinical case definition, combining symptoms and signs common in AIDS (see table below). This has been used as the basis for AIDS statistics in many countries, but is inaccurate.
A study of hospital patients in Zaire showed that the case definition missed 31% of AIDS cases (definition not very sensitive), and 10% of those it identified as having AIDS were errors. The case definition misses people dying with severe HIV illnesses which do not fit the definition. For example, deaths from streptococcal pneumonia are far more common in those with HIV, yet such deaths were not included.
The commonest manifestations of AIDS in Africa are gross weight loss, chronic diarrhoea and chronic fever---the picture of `slim disease' as AIDS is known in African countries. However, it is difficult to exclude other causes for the same symptoms and signs.
Deaths from tuberculosis are another problem. TB is probably the most important infection in those with HIV in Africa. High rates of TB infection are found in those with HIV and the risk of death from TB is greatly increased in those with HIV. However, it is questionable whether all those with TB and HIV can be diagnosed as AIDS cases, since many have TB anyway. Many with TB lose weight and have fever as well as a cough. Therefore in the absence of HIV testing, many with advanced TB are likely to be labelled as AIDS cases using the WHO case definition.
In the light of all these problems, a revised case definition has been agreed. You may wonder how it is possible to be sure of the right diagnosis at all without laboratory facilities, and the answer is that it is very difficult.
Some have pounced on this difficulty to suggest that there is no AIDS in Africa at all. As we see elsewhere, this is not very convincing for two reasons. First, death rates have soared in the sexually-active age groups as HIV infection rates have risen. TB and other illnesses have been around and studied in detail for decades. Something new is happening. Secondly, when people with AIDS from African nations are cared for either in countries like the UK, or in very well-equipped hospitals nearer home, it is clear that there are gross abnormalities of their immune systems indicative of AIDS, with positive antibodies for HIV and damaged white cells.
AIDS-related illnesses in Africa
The spectrum of illness seen in AIDS in African nations can vary, particularly in places where HIV-2 is more prevalent. The pattern is very different from developed countries:
Candida (thrush) in the mouth 80--100% Oesophageal candidiasis 30--50% Tuberculosis 30--50% Cerebral toxoplasmosis 15--20% Herpes zoster (shingles) 10% Cryptosporidiosis (diarrhoea) 50%
Most people have several problems. (For further discussion on needs of those with AIDS and how to meet them, see Chapters 10, 11 and 14; also Appendices A, B and C.)
So, now that we have reviewed how the virus attacks cells and causes diseases associated with AIDS, we are in a position to look at some of the ways the virus can enter the human body and how we can prevent it from happening.
First signs of illness Latent infection Early disease progression Late HIV illness---AIDS Chest infections are common Damage to nervous system Children with HIV Skin rashes and growths Problems in gut, eyes and other organs Changing disease pattern in adults AIDS diagnosis in developing nations AIDS-related illnesses in Africa
Alex - 20 Aug 2006 19:20 GMT > "Alex" <avdeelen.REMOFETHIS1@wanadoo.nl> wrote in message > > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > The deaths are not all reported as aids. There is a long > list of deaths by aids but referred to as other causes I jumped the gun on the CDC statement. The data was supplied by UNAIDS, so it could be from the WHO as well.
The 16,000 number comes from the HIVInsite website, and has at it's origin UNAIDS (see website: http://www.hivinsite.com/global?page=cr07-us-00 )
I don't know who collected the UNAIDS data for them in the US.
By the way, the UNAIDS description of the origin of their data is interesting too. They admit that their data from Africa (countries with a 'generalized epidemic') is still based on samples from a couple of hundred women at antenatal clinics. For Europe and North America, their projections are based on: "(commercial sex workers, men who have sex with men, injecting drug users) and estimates of the size of populations at high and low risk."
In other words, the UNAIDS data is still based on unrepresentative population samples, and then fed into the EPP model. And they still say that there were 320,000 AIDS deaths in South Africa in 2003. http://www.hivinsite.com/global?page=cr09-sf-00
So when is this going to change, and who is going to do something about this?
Alex
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/Methodology/default.asp
UNAIDS/WHO, in close consultation with countries, employs a six-step method to obtain national estimates of HIV prevalence.
In countries with a generalized epidemic, national estimates of HIV prevalence are based on data generated by surveillance systems that focus on pregnant women who attend a selected number of sentinel antenatal clinics. This data is entered into the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) software which fits a simple epidemiological model to find the best fitting curve that describes the evolution of adult HIV prevalence over time. This adult prevalence curve, along with national population estimates and epidemiological assumptions, is then entered into the Spectrum software program to calculate the number of people infected, new infections and deaths.
This method assumes that in countries with a generalized epidemic HIV prevalence among pregnant women is a good approximation of prevalence among the adult population (aged 15-49). Studies conducted at subnational level in a number of African countries have provided the evidence for this assumption (by directly comparing HIV prevalence among pregnant women at antenatal clinics to that detected among the adult population in the same community).
In countries with a low level or concentrated epidemic national estimates of HIV prevalence are primarily based on surveillance data collected from populations at high risk (commercial sex workers, men who have sex with men, injecting drug users) and estimates of the size of populations at high and low risk. This information is entered into point prevalence and projection spreadsheet models (the Workbook Method) to find the best fitting curve that describes the evolution of adult HIV prevalence over time. This adult prevalence curve, along with the national population estimates and epidemiological assumptions, is then entered into the Spectrum software program to calculate the number of people infected, new infections and deaths.
More detailed explanation of methods and assumptions may be found on the UNAIDS reference group on estimates, modeling and projections website http://www.epidem.org/Default.htm and in a series of papers published in Sexually Transmitted Infections, "Improved methods and tools for HIV/AIDS estimates and projections," 2006, 82 (Suppl) and 2004, 80 (Suppl).
GMCarter - 20 Aug 2006 00:44 GMT >In fact, even if time from infection to death was 20 years (and it isn't), >and there are 1.2 million people with hiv/aids in the US, > >1.2mn / 20 years = 60,000 deaths on average, per year. > >Again, this is still nowhere the 16,000 US deaths claimed by the CDC. Oh! Now I'm convinced by your deft and profound handling of statistics! Yes! It's all just a BIG conspiracy to fool YOU, Alex. Yes, YOU! All the world has gotten together and--well, just wait til the planet gives you a BIG surprise next April 1!
Oh, Alex!
Chris Noble - 21 Aug 2006 09:06 GMT > > > <drpsduke@yahoo.com> schreef in bericht > news:1155680459.865777.85320@h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com... [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] > ( This article states that the onset of AIDS in people 25-34 is 9.8 years, > and for people over 65, 5 years.http://www.natap.org/2002/feb/020802_1.htm ) The original source for the data is http://tinyurl.com/zp422
The words " before widespread use of highly-active antiretroviral therapy" might have told you something.
Added to this the figures are medians not averages.
You keep on making more mistakes every post.
You still keep on assuming a steady state solution when in fact a number of factors have changed over time.
Chris Noble
|
|
|