I have seen the difference between TV in South Africa and that in Europe and
theres a marked difference. South African TV transmitts very few adult
movies and they do not show x-rated films, yet in Europe the TV is
absolutely disgusting.

And remember, the theory is that HIV started out in West/Central Africa too.
So how come it never became an epidemic there?

Also, why does the HIV epidemic in Southern Africa coincide with
the ANC coming to power?

What makes you think that the cultures of South Africa and the Gambia
are so radically different?

The bottom line is that all these national prevalence rates are based on
projections of sampled data. Sometimes the data is very bad (Antenatal
Clinic Surveys or ANCs), and sometimes they are actually statistically
representative (DHS or Demographic and Health Surveys).

In either survey type, no independent confirmation tests are used,
which is the next hurdle to take. The argument is that it is too expensive
to use Western Blot as a confirmation test. However, as the AIDS
lobby keeps reminding us, "Knowing is beautiful". A western blot
test online costs $75,-. Keeping that as an estimate, in a 10,000 person
survey, in which 1,000 people test positive on the very sensitive
screening test (ELISA), the cost of using Western Blot to confirm
would only be an extra $75,000 per national survey. I would say
that's worth it.

One reason for the huge positive numbers using ELISA screening
tests, is that they are very sensitive, and pick up many more things
in Africa than they do in Europe or America. Antibodies to malaria
(90% of malaria cases occur in Africa) and leprosy, for instance.

From the Paul Ehrlich Institute website (web archive):

Aus den uns vorliegenden Unterlagen und auch aus der Literatur
wird deutlich, daß die unterschiedlichsten Störfaktoren in einzelnen
Screening-Testsystemen zu falsch positiven Ergebnissen führen können.
(Translation: From the available documents and also from the literature it
becomes clear, that several interfering factors can lead to false
positive results in single screening test systems.)

Dazu gehören:

   * Antikörper gegen andere virale Erreger (z.B. anti-HAV-IgM , anti-HCV, anti-Rubella)
   * Proben mit Antikörpern gegen Herpesviren (anti-EBV, anti-HCMV, anti-HSV)
   * Bakterielle Infektionen
   * unspezifische B-Zell Stimulationen
   * Autoimmun-Antikörper
   * Rheumafaktoren
   * Proben mit Hypergammaglobulinämien
   * Proben von Schwangeren, besonders nach mehreren Schwangerschaften
   * vorangegangene Impfungen (z.B. HBV, Influenza)

http://web.archive.org/web/20041024191121/http://www.pei.de/themen/hivdiasa.htm#stoer
"Diese unspezifischen Reaktionen werden durch die Bestätigungs-Testung
fast immer als falsch-positiv erkannt."
(Translation: These unspecific reactions are almost always recognized as false
positive by confirmation testing.)

The bottom line is that all the results that are given, are based on
single or sometimes double ELISA tests, and Western Blot is
never used to confirm positive ELISAs.
The CDC directed DHS surveys only use Western Blot on
the few tests that give inconclusive results from ELISA tests.
Crucially, they never use them to confirm positive ELISAs.

Alex