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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / AIDS / June 2006Botswana's Population Boom
On average, the population of Botswana grew 2.6% in the years from 1991 to 2001. That is the same as surrounding countries. Botswana's population: 1991 1,326,796 (only 29,557 (2%) were non-citizens) (1) 2001 1.7 million (2) (1) www.gurn.info/topic/migrant/ledriz04.pdf http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:T8P8zK9fdrQJ:www.gurn.info/topic/migrant/led riz04.pdf+%22botswan a+population+census&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1 (2) As indicated above, however, these raised mortality rates are substantially below the rates that had been projected for the year 1997/98 - for example, see Botswana MFDP (2000a). In addition, early estimates for the total head count from the Botswana population census in 2001 indicate a total of almost 1.7 million. This is close to projections obtained before HIV/AIDS was accounted for, and is at the very high end of AIDS scenario projections produced prior to the census (most of these were in the range 1.4-1.6 million). In the case of Botswana, it may be that the period from infection to death is higher than was previously expected, but this may not apply across all of the Southern African countries http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:L-hCfZhbeCoJ:www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/W DSContentServer/WDSP /IB/2003/03/22/000094946_03031204140841/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf+%22botswana+population+census&hl =en&ct=clnk&cd=2 Swaziland Population Census 1997 965,859 (1) 2001 1,173,900 (2) (1) http://www.ecs.co.sz/cca/cca_6.htm (2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swaziland That is 21.5% in 4 years, or 4.9% per year. BOTSWANA 2001 CENSUS SHOWS MANY FEWER ORPHANS THAN PROJECTED Orphans The 2001 Population Census collected fairly detailed information on the parental status of children and the school attendance of orphans and nonorphans. In that year, the incidence of orphans was as follows: lost both parents 2.0 percent, maternal orphans 3.6 percent, and paternal orphans 9.6 percent. These percentages are much less than the 2001 estimated numbers and incidence of these three groups of orphans published in the high profile Children on the Brink publication (see Table 3)3. COB projections are generally relied upon in most analyses of the 'orphan crisis' in Africa. Table 3: Comparison of orphan population figures from Children on the Brink and Population Census, 2001 http://www.commissionforafrica.org/english/consultation/submissions/ro/sb-nov-de c04-265.pdf Census = 2001 Population Census COB = Children On The Brink Maternal Orphans (%) COB 10.6 Census 3.6 Paternal Orhans (%) COB 14 Census 9.6 Double Orphans (%) COB 9.5 Census 2.0 Census = 2001 Population Census COB = Children On The Brink MORE MERRIMENT TO FOLLOW: According to the 2003 Surveillance Report, there was a 51 percent increase in the number of people who tested HIV positive between 2000 and 2002 (from 6001 to 9081). However, the number of new AIDS cases that were reported fell by 37 percent (from 1141 to 717) during the same period, which is completely the opposite of what one would expect. Clearly, not all individuals with AIDS are being picked up and reported, but the public health care system in Botswana is well resourced with comprehensive coverage. What does this drivel have to do with 5live? > What does this drivel have to do with 5live? Just broadening your horizons. Alex >> What does this drivel have to do with 5live? > > Just broadening your horizons. > > Alex Would you respect any request to stop posting in off-topic groups? If so - please stop posting in off-topic groups - ie: uk.media.radio.bbc-r5. Thanks > >> What does this drivel have to do with 5live? > > [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > > Thanks It might take some time to sink in. Our Alex is not the brightest spark in the world. >> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht > news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 14 lines] > It might take some time to sink in. Our Alex is not the brightest spark in > the world. Not enough beans to make a full burrito. B/ >>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht >> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > > B/ Not the sharpest knife in the drawer. > >> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht > > news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 18 lines] > > B/ Or.the lights are on upstairs, but there's no one home. >>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht >> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > > B/ The gates are down and the lights are flashing, but the train isn't coming. >>>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht >>> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > > The gates are down and the lights are flashing, but the train isn't coming. That's a different problem and usually curable with extra fiber. The other one isn't. He's been making the same tired arguments for years, with the same accurate rebuttals on how statistics works and then he trots it out all over again. Not enough dishes to set the table. B/ >>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht >> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > > B/ If you stand close enough to him you can hear the sea. "FreeSpirit_uk" <FreeSpirit_uk_removethis@myway.com> wrote in message > "Brian Mailman" <bmailman@sfo.invalid> wrote in message > >> It might take some time to sink in. Our Alex is not the brightest spark > >> in > >> the world. > > Not enough beans to make a full burrito. > If you stand close enough to him you can hear the sea. Couple of sandwiches short of a picnic. -- Moira de Swardt posting from Johannesburg, South Africa Remove the dot in my address to find me at home. "FreeSpirit_uk" <FreeSpirit_uk_removethis@myway.com> wrote in message > "Brian Mailman" <bmailman@sfo.invalid> wrote in message > >> It might take some time to sink in. Our Alex is not the brightest spark > >> in > >> the world. > > Not enough beans to make a full burrito. > If you stand close enough to him you can hear the sea. Couple of sandwiches short of a picnic. -- Moira de Swardt posting from Johannesburg, South Africa Remove the dot in my address to find me at home. Gee, that's almost as intelligent as your reply to my original post (though not quite). Alex > >> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht > > news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 18 lines] > > B/ > Gee, that's almost as intelligent as your reply to my original post > (though not quite). > > Alex <shrug> You say the same things over and over. Over and over, you're shown they're incorrect and how actual statistics actually work. Yet, you post it again and again. After a while, it goes from wilful ignorance to intentional lying. Not enough seeds in the tomato. B/ >>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht >> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] > > B/ As dumb as a stump. > >>> > "scouse" <scouse@invalid.invalid> schreef in bericht > >> news:kPSdnQt_e6JDH8XZnZ2dnUVZ8qidnZ2d@bt.com... [quoted text clipped - 21 lines] > > As dumb as a stump. As thick as two short planks. > As thick as two short planks. Of course! Probably one of the oldest and best known ones. :-) -- As nutty as a fruitcake. > > As thick as two short planks. > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > As nutty as a fruitcake. I have momentarily run out of other sayings!! :>) >>> As thick as two short planks. >>> [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > I have momentarily run out of other sayings!! :>) Mr Zappa added ' a fruitcake - and nuts'. "Robert Kay" <robertkay@home.net> wrote in message > I have momentarily run out of other sayings!! :>) I read a list once of about a hundred of them. I'd never heard of some of them, but they were hilarious. -- Moira de Swardt posting from Johannesburg, South Africa Remove the dot in my address to find me at home. >> > As thick as two short planks. >> [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > I have momentarily run out of other sayings!! :>) I recently read this on s.c.z and though it was a good one: As dim as a damp ember. >> As thick as two short planks. > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > As nutty as a fruitcake. One bit short of a valid checksum >>> As thick as two short planks. >> [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] >> > One bit short of a valid checksum You must be a software developer. :-) ------- As daft as a brush Just to recap for all you dummies out there. 1) Every single country that has been labeled with a massive HIV infection rate (20% to 33%) has shown no decline in population. 2) These countries have among the highest population growth rates in the world, which would be impossible if a quarter or a third of the sexually reproductive population was laid waste by a deadly disease. 3) None of the predictions made in the 1980s and early 1990s that Africa would be depopulated by HIV/AIDS have come true. 4) Most of these countries have DOUBLED their population between 1980 and 2005. 5) There is not a single country in Africa that has a smaller population today than it did 20 years ago. SUMMARY From population censuses and population growth data, there is NO evidence that a deadly disease is wreaking havoc among the sexually productive population groups in Southern, Eastern or Central Africa. >Just to recap for all you dummies out there. More of the same crap from the nut job. > Just to recap for all you dummies out there. Wrong way to start a message, Mr. van Deelen. You've just shown your hand - now no one (if there was anyone left) will take note of your crap writings any more. What do you expect when these kaffirs breed like rabbits. The only problem is you end up with alot of orfans. > Just to recap for all you dummies out there. > [quoted text clipped - 23 lines] > havoc among the sexually productive population groups > in Southern, Eastern or Central Africa. > Just to recap for all you dummies out there. > [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > or a third of the sexually reproductive population was laid > waste by a deadly disease. Point 1; HIV infected people are perfectly capable of reproducing Alex. Point 2; Do you know what the population growth rate was for each African nation prior to 1980 if so how does that compare to the current rates? Gary Stein > >> As thick as two short planks. > > [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > > One bit short of a valid checksum Excellent! And keeping up with the computer age. "linker3000" <linker3000@google-minushyphenmail.com> wrote in message > news:44591322$0$215$db0fefd9@news.zen.co.uk... > Would you respect any request to stop posting in off-topic groups? > > If so - please stop posting in off-topic groups - ie: > uk.media.radio.bbc-r5. > > Thanks Don't you watch World AIDS Day? It is quite big on the BBC, so that makes my posts on-topic. The point is still the same. Botswana, which is supposed to have an HIV rate of 25%, has a population growth of 2.5% per year, the same as Zambia, which is alleged to have an HIV rate or 16%, or Swaziland, or Malawi. On average, the population of Botswana grew 2.6% in the years from 1991 to 2001. That is the same as surrounding countries. In other words, there is no confirmation whatsoever of the projected national HIV infection rate, and population growth. Alex Botswana's population: 1991 1,326,796 (only 29,557 (2%) were non-citizens) (1) 2001 1.7 million (2) (1) www.gurn.info/topic/migrant/ledriz04.pdf http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:T8P8zK9fdrQJ:www.gurn.info/topic/migrant/led riz04.pdf+%22botswan a+population+census&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1 (2) As indicated above, however, these raised mortality rates are substantially below the rates that had been projected for the year 1997/98 - for example, see Botswana MFDP (2000a). In addition, early estimates for the total head count from the Botswana population census in 2001 indicate a total of almost 1.7 million. This is close to projections obtained before HIV/AIDS was accounted for, and is at the very high end of AIDS scenario projections produced prior to the census (most of these were in the range 1.4-1.6 million). In the case of Botswana, it may be that the period from infection to death is higher than was previously expected, but this may not apply across all of the Southern African countries http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:L-hCfZhbeCoJ:www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/W DSContentServer/WDSP /IB/2003/03/22/000094946_03031204140841/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf+%22botswana+population+census&hl =en&ct=clnk&cd=2 Ever more enlightening : http://www.census.gov/ipc/hiv/botswana.pdf |
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