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AIDS Blamed as South Africa's Death Rate Soars
By REUTERS

Published: February 18, 2005

Filed at 11:11 A.M. ET

PRETORIA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - South Africa's death toll soared by 57
percent in the five years to 2002, new figures on Friday showed,
underscoring how the country's AIDS epidemic is cutting a swathe
through its working-age population.

Releasing figures from a widely awaited national mortality study,
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said reported deaths leapt to
499,268 in 2002 from 318,287 in 1997.

The report looks likely to spark new debate over the extent of the
AIDS crisis in South Africa, where President Thabo Mbeki's government
is often accused by critics of both underplaying and underestimating
the crisis.

The study "provides indirect evidence that the HIV epidemic in South
Africa is raising the mortality levels of prime aged adults," Stats SA
head Pali Lehohla said in a statement.

AIDS is increasingly seen as a threat to South Africa's future, with
officials saying that up to 23 percent of its armed forces are
infected with HIV and key industries including mining hard hit by the
epidemic.

Stats SA said that among adults over 15, deaths increased by 62
percent between 1997 and 2002.

The report showed deaths increasing most rapidly for women and people
aged between 20 and 49 -- both regarded as groups most susceptible to
the AIDS virus, which affects an estimated one in nine of the
country's 45 million people.

"Death from AIDS of working age adults is a real and immediate
crisis," the opposition Democratic Alliance said in a statement
responding to the new numbers on Friday.

"Many of the adults who are dying, including nurses and teachers, are
critical to South Africa's future. Yet the government has no
comprehensive human resources plan in place to address this," the DA
statement said.

THREE MILLION DEATH CERTIFICATES

The Stats SA study was based on 3 million official death certificates
recorded over a five-year period. It said that on average 1,368 South
Africans died every day in 2002, compared with just 872 deaths a day
in 1997.

"It is in the 30 to 34 age group that we are seeing a very, very high
percentage of deaths being registered," said Liz Gavin, the agency's
director of population statistics. Stats SA said part of the increase
could be attributed to overall growth in South Africa's population --
up an estimated 10 percent over the period -- as well as a more
comprehensive death reporting system.

But experts agreed that hidden behind the numbers was a real and
escalating AIDS death toll.

"The report ... indicates an unabating HIV/AIDS epidemic," said David
Bourne, chief researcher at the University of Cape Town's School of
Public Health.

Officials said exact causes of death remained difficult to ascertain,
as in many cases common AIDS-related diseases such as tuberculosis,
influenza or pneumonia were officially recorded as responsible.

These three diseases are killing many more South Africans than before
as the AIDS virus spreads through the population.

Pneumonia was listed as responsible for 51,000 deaths in 2001 compared
with 22,000 in 1997, while the toll from influenza and pneumonia
jumped to 31,000 from 12,000 in the same period.

HIV, the subject of intense social stigma in South Africa where
publicly funded AIDS drug treatment became available only last year,
was directly blamed for only 9,000 deaths in 2001 against 6,000 four
years earlier.

AIDS activists have sought to press the South African government into
a more aggressive stance against the HIV/AIDS epidemic, saying that
both stigma and lack of publicly available treatment were hindering
the fight against the disease.

South Africa last year launched a public anti-retroviral drug
programme, but implementation remains slow with tens of thousands of
prospective patients still unable to access the life-saving
medication.

Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, speaking on Friday before
the Stats SA figures were released, said the government was doing its
best amid confusion about the extent of the disease and numbers of
people needing treatment.

"Give me a country that has precise figures. Everybody is working on
projections and we were working on projections too," she told
reporters in Cape Town.

"You really are working in the dark ... so you just give the medicines
hoping God will help us and be on our side."