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Medical Forum / Diseases and Disorders / AIDS / February 2005

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NEVER, NEVER TEST!

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PaulKing - 10 Feb 2005 04:07 GMT
How a 99.99% Accurate Test Can Be Wrong Half the Time
By Christine Maggiore
 
“A new article in Popular Science explains how allegedly accurate HIV
tests can be dead wrong when performed on people with no risk factors…”
 
===
 
An article in the July 2002 issue of Popular Science magazine gives
readers some surprising food for thought: the allegedly accurate HIV
tests
can be dead wrong when performed on people with no risk factors. Here’s
the text from page 78:
 
"HIV testing is 99.99 percent accurate, a doctor might tell his patient.
That suggests that if you receive a positive result, you almost certainly
have HIV. But this is not necessarily the case. The chance of a straight
man with no known risk factors contracting HIV is roughly one in 10,000.
That is also the rate at which an HIV test returns an incorrect result.
So
if 10,000 men in this low-risk group get tested for HIV, an average one
positive will come back from the man with HIV, and another man will test
positive even though he is not infected. Thus, in our statistically
perfect world, only one of the two men who test positive actually has
HIV.
50 percent of positive HIV tests in the low-risk group turn out to be
false."
 
The article incorrectly assumes that HIV tests can diagnose HIV infection
and that the claimed accuracy rate of 99.99% has been established through
careful scientific studies. In fact, HIV tests have not been approved by
the US Food and Drug Administration for use in diagnosing actual HIV
infection, and all claims of test accuracy are based on estimates and
assumptions.

TESTING COULD WRECK YOUR LIFE AND MAKE YOU A CRIMINAL.

NEVER TEST
Gary Stein - 11 Feb 2005 19:03 GMT
You talk in a pervious post about how statistics can be misused then you
post this drivel from that Queen of Bull sh.t Christine Maggiore who can't
seem to remember from one month to the next exactly what she claims her own
HIV status to be...................

As you know and as Chrissie knows a single positive test result is not
sufficient for a diagnosis of HIV in the US. It requires a confirmation test
and the accuracy of these two different types of tests in tandem are much
higher then the 99.99% you claim below.

Gary Stein

> How a 99.99% Accurate Test Can Be Wrong Half the Time
> By Christine Maggiore
[quoted text clipped - 34 lines]
>
> NEVER TEST
tsip29 - 11 Feb 2005 21:44 GMT
can anyone explain! i dont get it! noiw your saying this and i read other
stuff here! you say that the test are reall accurate! now your saying...."
single positive test result is not
sufficient for a diagnosis of HIV in the US". why is that.
if these test are accurete, then a positief test is postief. then you
would have hiv , point clear.

there is also talk about fals-positief or postief -false something like
that. if these test were so accutate you cant have any false -positieve or
the other way around! a simple as that.

no, sorry i do not trust these test! i read lately the perth website i
think they make a good piont about these test!

some other thing! someone said if i am correct that duesburg said that hiv
has been isolated! but he also said that what they call hiv in the lab,.
might not be the cause od aids. because what they call hiv is maid in the
lab, you can only find it in the lab nowhere else!

id i read correctely! if you want a virus they will make you one today!

also if any have knows. what is chemo therapy. which substance is used! i
heard it is a subtance of musterd (gas).! can anyone tell me what it
exactely is.
Gary Stein - 11 Feb 2005 22:42 GMT
> can anyone explain! i dont get it! noiw your saying this and i read other
> stuff here! you say that the test are reall accurate! now your saying...."
> single positive test result is not
> sufficient for a diagnosis of HIV in the US". why is that.
> if these test are accurete, then a positief test is postief. then you
> would have hiv , point clear.

No medical diagnostic test for any disease is 100% accurate 100% of the
time. So for fatal diseases such as HIV the medical community creates many
different tests aimed at diagnosing HIV infection. The goals that these test
makers have for there test very due to the intended use of the test. For
example if you wanted to make an inexpensive test that is meant to be used
on millions of patients as a screening test for HIV, your test design would
need to create a test that was optimized to NOT produce false negatives but
be less concerned with false positives. Such a test would be 99.9999%
accurate if the test returned a negative finding, but less accurate if it
produced a positive finding.

So now that the screening test exists the test makers need to design a test
to confirm the results of the screening test this test by design would be
optimized to not produce false positives and less concerned with false
negatives. So again this test would be 99.9999% accurate if the result is
positive and not as accurate if the result is negative. So if a doctor first
uses the in-expensive screening test and you test positive he then uses the
confirmation test to make sure the screening test is not returning a false
positive which would be discovered by the second confirming test.

There will always be a very small number of patients who due to some factor
or another will be difficult to diagnose but with the dozens of different
diagnostic tests now available to detect HIV even those patients can and do
receive a definitive diagnosis it may only take 2 tests or it may take up to
6 or more, but again these difficult to diagnose cases are very rare and
also very obvious to the labs who analyze the tests. If a patients blood is
reacting to the tests in ways that do not clearly follow the normative
patterns that test result stands out and the patient is flagged for more
through/different testing methods.

> there is also talk about false-positive or postief -false something like
> that. if these test were so accutate you cant have any false -positieve or
> the other way around! a simple as that.

No it is not that simple nor are other diseases that simple there are many
types of growths on the human body that look to be cancerous but upon more
intense testing turnout not to be. There are many types of pneumonia some
bacterial some viral yet they present with very similar symptoms. Some
people can get a smallpox vaccination shot and have absolutely no side
effects yet a small percentage of people who get the exact same shot will
die from it. The same can be said about other vaccines and other medicines
some people can use them with no ill effects others can go from having a
mild rash to organ failure and death in reaction to the exact same
medicines.

Well testing is the same the vast majority of people can be accurately
diagnosed as to their HIV status after just two different tests but a few
people will need more testing in order to get an unambiguous result either
negative or positive.

> no, sorry i do not trust these test! i read lately the perth website i
> think they make a good piont about these test!

Which point out of the hundreds of their objections do you find persuasive.
In my humble opinion they are the last place I would go for information on a
virus. The reason for that is that not a single member of the Perth group
has any training in virology or viral research. They have conducted NO
research of there own which if one purports to follow the scientific method
one should conduct the research that you use to back up your theories or
hypothesis. The Perth group on the other hand simply states that they have
declared a particular method of viral isolation to be the gold standard and
claimed that no one has met that standard. Neglecting the fact that no such
gold standard exists nor is the one they purpose in any way more accurate or
definitive then the alternates that are currently being used by tens of
thousands of virologists around the world, it is a fact that HIV has in deed
been isolated using numerous methods all of which have withstood peer review
and the tests of time. Even Professor Duesburg a Nobel Prize wining
virologist who did the pioneering work in early retro-virus research and who
is a dissident confirms that HIV exists and has been isolated per the Perth
groups so called gold standard.

> some other thing! someone said if i am correct that duesburg said that hiv
> has been isolated! but he also said that what they call hiv in the lab,.
> might not be the cause od aids. because what they call hiv is maid in the
> lab, you can only find it in the lab nowhere else!

No HIV is not made in the lab and Duesburg never claimed that. It is
cultured in labs (grown from known cell lines) and yes these exact cell
lines are not necessarily seen in the wild. However HIV infected cells from
an HIV infected person can be and are cultured in the lab and the virus
isolated from those cells are the same HIV as what is in that individual.
This can be shown by gentically comparing the lab cultured virus to that
taken directly from the patient. The genome of the various types of HIV has
been fully mapped which is even more convincing as a proof of HIV's
existence then is the Perth Groups so called gold standard of viral
isolation.

> id i read correctely! if you want a virus they will make you one today!

I do not now the state of science as to if they can create a new virus
without using existing viral strains as a starting point or not. But they
can certainly genetically alter virus A in such a way that what results as
virus B would be a new and different virus.

> also if any have knows. what is chemo therapy. which substance is used! i
> heard it is a subtance of musterd (gas).! can anyone tell me what it
> exactely is.

There are hundreds of drugs that can be referred to as chemo therapy but
Mustard Gas is NOT one of them. Mustard Gas was created during the First
World War as a weapon used to kill enemy soldiers not as a therapeutic
medicine. The use of the words 'Chemo Therapy is most commonly used when
referring to the drugs used to treat various types of cancer. But there are
some very strong Antibiotics that are also considered Chemo Therapy, the
dictionary definition is as follows "The treatment of disease using chemical
agents or drugs that are selectively toxic to the causative agent of the
disease, such as a virus, bacterium, or other microorganism".

Gary Stein
 
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