Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 20:14:45 +0000

SOUTHERN AFRICA: HIV/AIDS May be Undermining Democracy

Inter Press Service - November 26, 2004
Moyiga Nduru

http://www.aegis.org/news/ips/2004/IP041119.html
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PRETORIA, Nov 26 (IPS) - The figures speak volumes. Between 1999
and 2003 almost 1.5 million of about 20 million registered voters
in South Africa were removed from the voters' roll because they
had died - most, it appears, from AIDS-related diseases.

The impact of the HIV pandemic on electoral processes was
illustrated in a report issued this week by a Pretoria-based
think-tank, the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa).

Entitled 'HIV/AIDS and Democratic Governance in South Africa',
the 241-page document says there is evidence of a sharp increase
in mortality among registered voters between the ages of 20 and
49. In some cases, this increase is in the order of 200 percent.

"The evidence in this report should alert planners and policy
makers in South Africa to prevent similar scenarios," Kondwani
Chirambo, manager of Idasa's Governance and AIDS programme, said
at the launch of the report Thursday.

His colleague, Paul Graham - Idasa's executive director - added:
"This report is an attempt to understand how HIV and AIDS can
impact on electoral democracy."

According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
(UNAIDS), HIV prevalence in South Africa amongst 15 to
49-year-olds "rose from less than one percent to about 20
percent" over the past decade.

The pandemic is not only killing voters but also members of
parliament (MPs) in the 13-nation Southern African Development
Community (SADC), of which South Africa is a member.

In Zambia for example, 46 by-elections were held in the 20-year
period between independence in 1964 and the year in which the
first AIDS cases were reported (1984). Khabele Matlosa of the
Johannesburg-based Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA),
who contributed to the report, said of these 14 were prompted by
the death of incumbents. Thirty-two had resulted from
resignations and expulsion.

However between 1985 and 2003, 102 by-elections took place.
Thirty- nine of these were as a result of death - almost three
times as many as in the previous and longer period. The causes of
the various deaths were not recorded, but 27 of the 39 people
concerned were in the age bracket most affected by AIDS-related
deaths.

The loss to constituencies was not simply one of political skill.
Idasa quoted the Zambian Electoral Commission as saying that each
by- election costs the country more than 200,000 dollars; because
by- elections are not budgeted for, resources have to be taken
from other activities - which are thus compromised.

In his native Lesotho, Matlosa noted, eight legislators had died
since 2002 - prompting by-elections. Of the eight MPs, three had
lost their lives in road accidents and five through illness. Each
by-election is said to cost around 167,000 dollars.

Neighbouring South Africa held 79 by-elections in 2001; in 2003
this number increased to 83. The largest number of polls (21)
took place in the KwaZulu-Natal province, followed by the
Northern Cape (9), Western Cape (9), Gauteng (8) and Free State
(8).

By May this year 60 by-elections had already been held in South
Africa. Chirambo said the report did not conclude that every
by-election was the result of AIDS, but that looking at general
health trends it was fair to infer that the epidemic had played a
role.

"The more important point is that by-elections that happen for
whatever reason - including illness and death - translate into
political and financial cost to South Africa's young democracy,"
he noted, adding: "The cost of losing MPs may be less in
financial terms but it could be high in terms of losing
experience and institutional memory."

Researchers also interviewed people living with HIV/AIDS. One of
them, a woman who gave comment during South Africa's April 2004
general elections, said: "I think (the politicians) talk about
HIV and they lie about it. They are just trying to get people's
votes and they have been talking about it for years now but they
have done nothing about it."

The woman came from the village of Nangoma in KwaZulu-Natal; this
province has become the epicentre of the pandemic in South
Africa, with an estimated HIV prevalence rate of 37.5 percent.
With data from the voters' roll, Idasa said it had established
that mortality amongst registered women voters aged 30 to 39
years in Nangoma had increased by 179 percent between 1999 and
2003.

This was higher than the national average (129 percent) but lower
than some other municipalities.

"While we do not know the cause of death in any individual case,
the overall mortality profiles we have generated are, arguably, a
veritable 'smoking gun' for AIDS-related mortality in South
Africa," researcher Per Strand said Thursday at the Pretoria
launch.

The release of the Idasa report coincides with a busy election
schedule in Southern Africa.

This year alone, elections have been held in South Africa,
Malawi, Namibia and Botswana. Next week voters in Mozambique will
go to the polls to cast ballots for their legislators and
president - while in 2005, the electoral focus will be on
Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mauritius and the Democratic Republic of
Congo.

"Most of SADC countries are going through electoral reforms. We
hope that they will take the issue of HIV/AIDS on board," Matlosa
said.

While Southern Africa only has two percent of the world's
population, the region has the unenviable distinction of being
home to 70 percent of all persons infected with HIV - this
according to a recent report by UNAIDS.

041126
IP041119

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