AIDS Numbers Under Question
Author Michael Fumento who wrote the 1990 book "The Myth of Heterosexual
AIDS" is still fuming over the epidemic of exaggerated AIDS estimates.
Although Fumento never challenges mainstream beliefs regarding the
alleged
virus, the tests or the treatments, he rarely misses an opportunity to
point out the preposterous nature of AIDS predictions and the media1s
lack
of investigative reporting. Here's his latest piece on the subject: AIDS
Threatens Humanity Again
By Michael Fumento
Scripps Howard News Service, July 16, 2004
"At least 30 percent of the entire adult population of Central Africa is
infected with the AIDS virus," a doctor tells a U.S. newspaper. A high
Ugandan official says that within two years his nation will "be a
desert."
ABC's "Nightline" declares that in 12 years "50 million Africans may have
died of AIDS."
But don't slam that panic button just yet.
You see, those statements and predictions were all made between 1986
and1988. Yet since 1985, Central Africa's population has increased over
70
percent while Uganda's has nearly doubled.
According to the latest U.N.estimate, the "Nightline" prediction of 50
million dead Africans by the year 2000 was actually 20 million dead
worldwide by 2003.
I've been writing about the exaggeration of AIDS since 1987, so I know
when the crying of "Wolf!" will stop.
Never. Indeed, at the 15th International AIDS Conference in Bangkok,
wolves were everywhere and the media questioned nothing.
For example, there was pious Peter Piot, executive director of the U.N.
AIDS program, bemoaning that "Projections now suggest that some countries
in sub-Saharan Africa will face economic collapse unless they bring their
epidemics under control." He should know; he's been using those exact
words for at least five years.
Nor is there reason to believe the United Nations' 20 million-dead figure
or its estimates of new infections or deaths. The epidemic always has and
always will refuse to live up to the official predictions because the
louder the alarms, the more public and private contributions pour in.
The U.N. AIDS program doesn't even care if it contradicts other U.N.
branches - where do you think I got those population-increase numbers?
The Boston Globe reported in June that two U.S. AIDS officials, speaking
on condition of anonymity, believe global HIV numbers may be inflated by
50 percent. Berkeley, California epidemiologist Dr. James Chin puts the
exaggeration at from 25 percent to 40 percent.
Chin became responsible for California's AIDS surveillance program when
the disease was detected in 1981. In 1987, he joined the U.N. AIDS where
he quickly saw the agency was using an estimated range of worldwide cases
that was far too high. Ultimately, the United Nations agreed with
Chin'sassessment and he stayed on another five years.
In the beginning, Chin says, some countries would understate their
figures
for fear of becoming pariahs and harming tourism. "But the pendulum swung
so that it was in vogue to claim high numbers" in order to get more
attention and more money.
The problem is that AIDS and HIV victims don't walk through turnstiles to
be counted. People conduct surveys and then somebody extrapolates from
them.
That's where the hanky-panky occurs.
"They don't falsify, per se," Chin told me, but "as an epidemiologist I
look at these numbers and how they're derived. Every step of the way
there
is a range and you can choose the low end or the high end. Almost
consistently the high end is chosen."
As infection statistics from an urban area known to have high rates are
extrapolated to an entire country, the overestimates just keep
multiplying.
That's exactly what the United Nations wants, says Chin.
"What they don't seem to realize is that this causes serious
misallocations between AIDS and other diseases and even between the needs
of AIDS programs in different countries."
One South African AIDS official told me off the record that when one of
the largest private AIDS donors approached him with potential funding he
refused to exaggerate the problem. The foundation huffed and took its
money elsewhere.
Is this any way to combat an epidemic? Naturally, as with everything
else,
AIDS is all America's fault. Never mind that with less than a third of
the world's GDP, the U.S. government is spending twice as much on the
disease this year as the rest of the planet combined. U.N.
Secretary-General Kofi Annan ripped the United States for not taking AIDS
as seriously as worldwide terrorism.
Nevertheless, this is a terrible disease affecting all countries.
That's why we must know precisely where and how to spend our money.
Unfortunately, neither the United Nations nor its media allies are about
to tell us.