"Don Saklad" <dsaklad@nestle.csail.mit.edu> wrote...

I'll rant first and look at the links later to see if I'm right.  I predict
that the number of U.S. new HIV infections is INCREASING, and that the rate
of increase is accelerating!  When the new drugs came out around 1995 I
predicted that the number of those infected with HIV would start to increase
dramatically, as the older generation of infectees would no longer be
dying off from AIDS and would continue to infect new victims for decades
instead of the average 3-5 years they had before.  The generation of
infected that were within a year or two of death in 1995 are still alive
today, around 3x what their life span would have been.  This means they
have had an opportunity to infect 3x as many people, and they drugs are
very effective and that generation still shows no sign of dying (in fact,
they look disturbingly healthy), so there is no reason to believe that
a 10x extended lifespan won't mean 10x as many infected.

I realize my analysis will upset some of you, but it is the truth.  Y'all
live in a fantasy world, a world where someone who has wild, promiscuous,
indiscriminate, unprotected sex with hundreds of partners a year suddenly
become a celibate monk once receiving his HIV+ diagnosis.  Oh sure, SOME
might go celibate or become extraordinarily cautious, but they are a
tiny minority - the vast majority carries on exactly as before.  The
attitude I've seen in recent years is that HIV is no longer a deadly
contagious plague, but rather just a minor inconvenience that can easily
be treated by popping a pill.  With this sort of attitude, I can't
imagine that anyone who cared so little about themselves to avoid infection
would give a sh.t about infecting others, especially as it's just a minor
inconvenience, no worse or more stigmatizing than a cold sore.